NBA DFS Breakdown (Saturday, Mar. 20): Giannis Antetokounmpo Is a Lock on Small Slate

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features a four-game main slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Ben Simmons has the potential for a big game on Saturday. Joel Embiid remains out of the lineup, and Simmons has been a much larger focal point on offense with Embiid off the court this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.0% and his assist rate by +6.4%, resulting in an average of 1.17 FanDuel points per minute.

He also takes the floor in an elite spot vs. the Kings. They’ve been the worst defensive team in basketball this season, giving Simmons an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.81. Philly’s implied team total of 118.25 is also the third-highest mark on the slate. Simmons is an elite target on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.

Value

Jordan Poole is coming off a huge performance yesterday vs. the Grizzlies, and he’ll likely have the opportunity for another big game on Saturday. Steph Curry is expected to miss his second straight game, and Poole played 34.2 minutes sans Curry on Friday. Poole has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with Curry off the season, so that gives him excellent upside at his current price tag across the industry.

Fast Break

Derrick White is the best pure value at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 86%. His playing time also increased in his last game – he finished with 34.8 minutes – and he’s currently projected for a comparable workload in our NBA Models. White has averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s a great bet to return value with that much playing time.

Ja Morant has been a big disappointment recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past five games. That’s caused his salary to dip to just $7,200 on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting buy-low target. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he provides nice upside at that salary.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Clippers are arguably the top team to target on today’s slate. They own a great matchup vs. the Hornets, resulting in a slate-high implied team total of 120.5 points. They also have the potential to be without Serge Ibaka for the third-straight game. He’s currently listed as questionable, so make sure to monitor his status using the Labs Insiders tool.

Paul George has played all the minutes he can handle with Ibaka out of the lineup. He’s logged 37.8 and 41.4 minutes in his past two games, and he leads the position with 37.4 projected minutes in our NBA Models. George is also the most productive shooting guard on a per-minute basis, which is a nice combination for fantasy purposes.

Value

The fact that the Warriors are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back is going to work in our favor this evening. The DFS sites didn’t have a chance to price up their players following yesterday’s performance, which means Andrew Wiggins remains a massive value. He’s a solid option across the industry, but he’s close to a must-play at just $5,200 on FanDuel. Wiggins has increased his usage rate by +6.0% with Curry off the court this season, and he put up a massive 65.6 FanDuel points with Curry out of the lineup yesterday.

Fast Break

Sticking with the Warriors, Damion Lee is another nice source of value. He’s priced at or near the minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he played 27.9 minutes yesterday. He’s currently projected for 25.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.21 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). Lee finished with 35.0 FanDuel points yesterday, so he clearly has the ability to find success without Curry.

Terry Rozier has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games on FanDuel, yet his salary has actually decreased over that time frame. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends, so he could fly a bit under-the-radar on today’s slate.

Small Forward

Stud

Kawhi Leonard stands out for a lot of the same reasons as George. He’s played at least 36.9 minutes in back-to-back games, so expect him to log a heavy workload again if Ibaka is ruled out. He’s a strong option to pay up for on a slate with plenty of value and not a ton of true stud targets.

Value

Keldon Johnson’s playing time has been up recently. He’s logged at least 30.9 minutes in three straight games, including a whopping 39.1 minutes yesterday vs. the Cavaliers. He responded with a massive performance – he racked up 23 points and 21 rebounds en route to 58.2 FanDuel points – and he should play a big role for the Spurs over the second half of the season. The Spurs’ decision to shut down LaMarcus Aldridge suggests that they’re focusing on the future, and Johnson is clearly a big part of that.

He’s a steal at $4,800 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%.

Fast Break

Furkan Korkmaz isn’t playing a ton of minutes for the 76ers, but he’s been making the most of his playing time. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on FanDuel, where he’s priced at the absolute minimum. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary.

Khris Middleton has been priced down to $7,500 on DraftKings, and that’s a pretty appealing price tag for him. He’s been priced as high as $8,400 during March, and Middleton has a Plus/Minus of +1.72 with a comparable salary this season. He’s also in a solid spot vs. the Spurs, with Milwaukee’s implied team total of 120.25 ranking second on the slate.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the alpha on today’s slate. To be fair, he’s the alpha on most slates, but he’s the most expensive option on Saturday by approximately $2,000. He’s been playing some of his best basketball of the season recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.19 over his past 10 games, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.79 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

His matchup vs. the Spurs isn’t ideal – he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.03 – but it’s tough to avoid him with so many value options. His median projection is roughly 13 points higher than any other player’s on Saturday, and the disparity in ceiling projections is even greater.

Value

Marcus Morris is another potential source of value on Saturday. He’s absorbed a bunch of Ibaka’s minutes over their past two games, and he ultimately responded with at least 28.2 FanDuel points in both contests. He’s priced close to the minimum at just $3,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%.

Fast Break

Draymond Green put on a masterclass yesterday in how to dominate a game without scoring. He ultimately finished with 40.75 DraftKings points despite going 0-6 from the field. His only two points came from the free throw line, but he was able to make up for it with 11 rebounds, 13 assists, one steal, and two blocks. If he can actually provide some value as a scorer on Saturday, he could be looking at a massive performance.

Tobias Harris has done a lot of the heavy lifting for the 76ers with Embiid out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.5% in nine games without Embiid, resulting in an average of 39.87 FanDuel points per game. His salary has come up across the industry, but he’s arguably still too cheap on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 80%.

Center

Stud

Center isn’t a particularly strong position on today’s slate, but Jonas Valanciunas is a nice option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 78%, and he has the potential to do some damage vs. the Warriors. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.71, and he’s averaged a stout 1.30 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

Value

If Valanciunas is a nice value on FanDuel, Dwight Howard is an amazing one. He owns a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he’s been spectacular filling in for Embiid of late. He’s averaged 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games. His minutes have also been up in his past two games, which makes him one of the best overall plays on the slate.

Fast Break

Jakob Poeltl also deserves some consideration. He’s taken over as the Spurs’ starting center, and he’s scored at least 32.9 FanDuel points in each of his past three games. He’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season, so it’s not surprising that he’s made the most of some additional playing time.