NBA DFS Breakdown (Saturday, Jan. 9): Target the Shorthanded Mavericks

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

New offer from FantasyLabs: Get our NFL models and tools free when you sign up for the NBA monthly plan!

Point Guard

Stud

The Mavericks are going to be shorthanded on today’s slate. Kristaps Porzingis remains out with a knee injury, while Josh Richardson, Jalen Brunson, and Dorian Finney-Smith have all been ruled out for health and safety protocols. Richardson and Finney-Smith rank second and third on the Mavericks in minutes per game, while Brunson ranks second in usage. That opens up a ton of opportunities for the rest of the roster.

Expect Luka Doncic to carry an even larger workload than usual. He’s already leading the league with a usage rate of 37.6%, and he’s averaged a ridiculous 32.7 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists over his past three games. Doncic has only played nine minutes with Brunson, Richardson, and Finney-Smith off the court this season, but he’s averaged 2.01 DraftKings points per minute in that situation. I can’t imagine paying up for anyone else on today’s slate.

Value

Sticking with the Mavericks, Trey Burke should be an excellent source of value if he’s in the lineup. He’s currently listed as probable with an illness, so all indications are that he will return to the lineup after missing the past game. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings and has the potential to see a heavy workload given the Mavs’ current roster.

Fast Break

Dejounte Murray and the Spurs are in an elite spot today vs. the Timberwolves. Minnesota has been an absolute disaster defensively of late, allowing at least 123 points in six straight games. Unsurprisingly, the Spurs’ implied team total of 118.75 ranks second on the slate. Murray has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with White off the court this season, and he has the potential to play more than 36 minutes in this contest.

The Wizards are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, which means Russell Westbrook is a candidate to get the night off. NBA guru Justin Phan gives just him just a 40% of suiting up, per the Labs Insiders tool. If that happens Raul Neto would become an appealing value option. He’s averaged 27.3 minutes per game in two games without Westbrook this season, and he’s averaged 29.13 DraftKings points in those contests.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Bradley Beal has been on a major heater recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 41 points in each of his past two games. He’s also posted a usage rate of at least 40.6% in those contests, and he could be looking at another monster workload if Westbrook is given the night off. Beal has led the team with a usage rate of 39.4% with Westbrook off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.58 DraftKings points per minute. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.

Value

Devonte’ Graham is way too cheap to pass up on FanDuel. He was playing reduced minutes earlier in the year, which caused his price to plummet to just $5,200. That said, he’s back to playing his usual workload, and he’s responded with at least 35.2 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. He’s currently projected for 34.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he should crush his current price tag if he plays that much vs. the Hawks.

Fast Break

Buddy Hield hasn’t had the best start to his season from a fantasy perspective, but he’s a prime bounce-back candidate moving forward. He’s on pace to average a new career-high in minutes per game, but his scoring has been kept down by shooting just 35.1% from the field and 34.4% from 3-point range. Those marks are well below his career averages. He’s an excellent buy-low target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75%.

Tim Hardaway Jr. is another player who could be forced into a larger workload today for the Mavericks, and he shouldn’t command nearly the same ownership as Doncic and Burke. His average of 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with Brunson, Richardson, and Finney-Smith off the court is unsustainable, but he could average around one fantasy point per minute.

Small Forward

Stud

The Heat own one of the top matchups of the day vs. the Wizards. Washington ranks first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency this season, which is an awesome combination for fantasy purposes. Miami’s current implied team total of 118.75 ranks third on the slate.

Jimmy Butler also stands out as an elite value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and Butler has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.19 with a comparable salary as a member of the Heat (per the Trends tool). His playing time has been down a bit recently – which is a bit concerning – but he did play 33.1 minutes in his last game vs. the Celtics.

Value

The Cavaliers have the potential to be without their top three offensive options vs. the Bucks. Darius Garland and Kevin Love have already been ruled out, and Collin Sexton is currently listed as questionable. Sexton was a late scratch in their last game and was not able to go through shootaround on Saturday morning, so it would not be a surprise if he missed another contest.

That would leave Cedi Osman as the Cavs’ top offensive option. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.3% with Garland, Love, and Sexton off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.96 FanDuel points per minute. He played more than 38 minutes in the Cavs’ last game, so he’s too cheap at $5,400 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

The Hornets’ rotation has been all over the place this season, but Miles Bridges has excellent upside in games where he hits his minutes’ ceiling. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has the potential to crush his $4,700 salary if he gets to 30 minutes vs. the Hawks.

Rudy Gay is not a sexy DFS option, but he’s been reliable this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel, and he should continue to see a boost with White out of the lineup. He also has slightly more upside than usual given his matchup vs. the Timberwolves.

Power Forward

Stud

I have no idea why John Collins is still so cheap on FanDuel. He’s scored at least 34.1 FanDuel points in four of his past five games, yet his salary has actually decreased recently. His current $6,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%.

His matchup vs. the Hornets is also solid. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.87, and the Hawks’ implied team total of 116.75 ranks fifth on the slate. Collins also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, making him one of the easiest plays on the slate.

Value

Rui Hachimura is a PF on DraftKings and a SF on FanDuel, but he’s an excellent value regardless of what site you’re playing on. He’s coming off a season-high 37.2 minutes in his last game, and he’s currently projected for 31.0 minutes in our NBA Models. Hachimura has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to crush his current price tag with that much playing time.

Fast Break

James Johnson is another interesting value option for the Mavericks. He’s priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings, and he should see a solid handful of minutes. Johnson has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of scoring fantasy points quickly.

The Blazers own the top implied team total on the slate at 121.25 points, and Robert Covington is a cheap way to get some exposure. He’s priced at just $4,800 on FanDuel, and he’s currently projected for 32.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him a solid value option.

Center

Stud

Andre Drummond is another potential option for the Cavaliers tonight. There’s a chance that he sees reduced minutes if their game turns into a blowout, but he also has solid upside if it’s closer than expected. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 36.4% in back-to-back games, which represents a huge increase compared to his career average. Drummond is also underpriced on DraftKings, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.

Value

Brook Lopez continues to stand out as one of the better values at center. His playing time was down to start the season, but he’s logged at least 27.8 minutes in each of his past three games. Of course, the same blowout concerns that exist for Drummond also exist for Lopez, but he doesn’t carry nearly the same risk at just $4,700 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Bam Adebayo is another option if you’re looking to pay up at center. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, and he’s in a juicy spot tonight vs. the Wizards. They haven’t been as poor against opposing centers this season as they were last season, but Adebayo still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.79 on FanDuel.

Clint Capela also continues to stand out as an elite option on FanDuel. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, yet his salary has stayed pretty stagnant. He’s averaged 1.18 FanDuel points per minute this season and is currently projected for 30.0 minutes, so he’s too cheap at $6,500.