NBA DFS Breakdown (Saturday, Feb. 13): Keep Riding Red-Hot Donovan Mitchell

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features a four-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

John Wall is listed as probable for tonight’s contest vs. the Knicks, and he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced on DraftKings if he suits up. He’s priced at just $7,200, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games. The Knicks aren’t an ideal matchup – Wall owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.5 – but he should continue to benefit from the absence of Christian Wood. Wall has increased his usage rate by +4.7% with both Wood and James Harden off the court this season, so he carries more upside than usual.

Value

Derrick Rose hasn’t seen a ton of minutes in his first two games with the Knicks, but that hasn’t stopped him from providing fantasy value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in both contests, including 36.6 FanDuel points in just 20 minutes last night vs. the Wizards. Rose has averaged a stout 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need much playing time to do damage.

Fast Break

Malcolm Brogdon leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. The Pacers’ implied team total of 112.75 also ranks third on the slate, and he owns an elite individual matchup vs. the Hawks. Trae Young is quite possibly the worst defensive player in the league, and he ranks dead-last among PGs in terms of ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus.

The game between the Warriors and Nets is going to garner the majority of the ownership on today’s slate. The total on that contest sits at 246 points, which is the top mark on the slate by more than 20 points. Steph Curry should handle the majority of the scoring for the Warriors, and the Nets have absolutely hemorrhaged points since acquiring James Harden. They’ve allowed a ridiculous 119.6 points per 100 possessions over their past 14 games, which puts them on a historically bad pace.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Donovan Mitchell has been a fantasy monster with Mike Conley out of the lineup. He’s always been a great scorer – he’s averaged at least 20.5 points in every season as a pro – and he’s added upside as a distributor sans Conley. He’s handed out at least eight assists in each of his past three games, and he’s scored at least 45.0 DraftKings points in all three games.

Conley is doubtful for tonight’s matchup vs. the Pacers, and Mitchell is pretty clearly underpriced if he’s ruled out. He’s one of the top options on the slate.

Value

Sticking with the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson is another excellent target without Conley. He’s coming off 38.3 FanDuel points in his last game, and he has blossomed in a sixth-man role with Utah. He’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models. Clarkson is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%.

Fast Break

Eric Gordon is another underpriced option at $5,600 on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and Gordon has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.61 with a comparable salary and minute projection this season (per the Trends tool).

If you’re looking for someone from the Warriors-Nets game at shooting guard, Andrew Wiggins is your best bet. He got off to a slow start with the Warriors this season, but he’s rebounded nicely since then. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 39.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. That gives him a nice ceiling for his salary.

Small Forward

Stud

Building a lineup with none of the stars from Warriors-Nets is actually an interesting strategy tonight. It’s a scary option – if that game shoots out you’re probably done – but the majority of the top options in our NBA Models play for other teams. Wall and Mitchell earned that designation at the guard spots, and Jimmy Butler stands out at small forward.

Goran Dragic has already been ruled out, and Butler has been doing everything for the Heat with Dragic out of the lineup recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all seven games since returning to the lineup following an extended absence, and he’s scored at least 56.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Those performances were also against the Rockets and Knicks, which are two slow-paced, defensive-minded squads. The Jazz are another dreadful matchup, but Butler is simply too cheap on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%.

Value

Danilo Gallinari has started the past two games for the Hawks, and he’s projected for 28.0 minutes in tonight’s contest vs. the Pacers. His playing time was cut short in his last game – the Hawks were run out of the gym by the Spurs – but he has monster upside if he plays 28 minutes tonight. Gallo has always been an excellent contributor on a per-minute basis, and he’s dirt cheap at just $4,000 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

So we should probably talk about Kevin Durant, right? He’s heading back to Golden State for the first time as a member of the Nets, so he could have some extra motivation in this contest. That said, he did miss the past three games, and the #RevengeGame narrative and Vegas total will make him one of the highest-owned players on the slate. I prefer Butler considering the difference in salary and likely ownership, but there’s no denying his upside.

Joe Ingles has been a fantastic value recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on FanDuel, and he’s posted a mark of at least +13.67 in three of his past four. He’s increased his production to 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s played plenty of minutes since moving into the starting lineup in place of Conley.

Power Forward

Stud

Julius Randle continues to get the job done for fantasy owners. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is not afraid to play him big minutes, and that shouldn’t change now that Mitchell Robinson is out with a fractured hand. No one at the position is projected for more minutes in our NBA Models, and Randle also leads all power forwards in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Value

Nerlens Noel is an elite value option on today’s slate. He is expected to move into the starting lineup in place of Robinson, and he’s currently projected for 27.1 minutes vs. the Rockets. If he sees that much playing time, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he fails to return value. Noel has averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his matchup comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.1.

Fast Break

Danuel House is another strong value option. He stands out on DraftKings in particular, where his $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. House has played at least 30.4 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.97 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

Draymond Green has stepped up for the shorthanded Warriors recently. He’s been asked to play more minutes with James Wiseman and Kevon Looney out of the lineup, and he’s responded with an average Plus/Minus of +5.46 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. His salary has come up a bit across the industry, but his $6,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Center

Stud

Clint Capela is a solid buy-low option today on FanDuel. He’s been priced down to just $7,500 after peaking at $10,500 a few weeks ago. That’s a pretty massive decrease over such a short period of time.

Capela has struggled in back-to-back games, but there have been mitigating circumstances in both. He played limited minutes vs. the Spurs in a blowout, and he struggled with foul trouble vs. the Mavericks. He should return to his usual workload today if he can avoid those two pitfalls, and Capela has averaged a stout 1.46 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

Value

DeMarcus Cousins should continue to provide value for as long as Wood is sidelined. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, which is not that surprising given his average of 1.32 FanDuel points per minute this season. He hasn’t seen as much playing time as he did during Wood’s first stretch of missed games this season, but he should still be able to pay off his current salary.

Fast Break

Rudy Gobert is almost always underpriced on DraftKings, and Saturday’s match vs. the Heat is no exception. His $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Gobert has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.29 over his past 10 games. He’s also posted a Consistency Rating of 86% over the past month, so he gets the job done more often than not.