NBA DFS Breakdown (Saturday, April 3): Luka Doncic or Giannis Antetokounmpo?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

As a reminder, the NBA can be crazy this time of year with injuries and scratches, so make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for any updates.

Point Guard

Stud

Luka Doncic has been a bit of a disappointment recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five straight games on DraftKings, which has caused his salary to drop to $10,600 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Wizards. That makes him an elite buy-low option. The Wizards have been arguably the best matchup in fantasy this season, ranking first in pace and tied for 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Mavericks’ implied team total of 116.75 is the fourth-highest mark on the slate.

Kristaps Porzingis has also been ruled out, which gives Doncic a boost in value.

Value

Ricky Rubio sat out the Timberwolves last game, and there’s a chance he could be out today as well. That would make Jordan McLaughlin an appealing value target at just $3,500. He played 33.5 minutes yesterday vs. the Grizzlies, and he’s averaged a solid 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Fast Break

The Jazz are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, which means there’s a good chance that Mike Conley will get the night off for rest. If that happens, Jordan Clarkson is going to be asked to take on a larger workload than usual. Clarkson has played nine games without Conley this season, and he’s averaged 29.61 FanDuel points in those contests. That makes him a strong option at just $5,400.

Malcolm Brogdon is another injury situation worth monitoring. He was a late scratch yesterday vs. the Hornets, so there’s a chance he’s out again on Saturday. Edmond Sumner drew the start in place of Brogdon vs. the Hornets, but T.J. McConnell would be the primary beneficiary if Brogdon is out again. He played 31.7 minutes yesterday, and he’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The SG position isn’t particularly strong on today’s slate, especially at the top. If you are looking to pay up, C.J. McCollum is probably your best bet. He’s projected for 37.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark at the position. McCollum has made the most of all his playing time recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in four of his past five games. He’s also in a solid spot vs. the Thunder, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.46.

Value

On the other side of that matchup, the Thunder should continue to be a decent source of value. They’re playing without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, and Al Horford, which opens up a ton of minutes and usage for the rest of the roster.

Svi Mykhailiuk is one of their most appealing targets. He was limited to just 23.8 minutes yesterday, but that was likely due to the Thunder losing that game by 36 points, so he should return to his normal workload if tonight’s game is more competitive. He played more than 35.5 minutes in the game prior, so he’s a nice buy-low candidate.

Fast Break

Tyrese Haliburton has seen a dip in production recently, but he remains one of the most impressive rookies this season. He’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s currently projected for 33.6 minutes. He stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.

Josh Jackson is another potential source of value on today’s slate. He isn’t the safest option, but he has immense upside at just $4,500 on FanDuel. He’s coming off 41.4 FanDuel points in his last outing, and he’s averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Small Forward

Stud

Khris Middleton may not be a true fantasy superstar, but he’s pretty darn close. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past 10 games on FanDuel, yet his salary has actually decreased to just $7,500 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Kings. It’s an absolutely elite matchup: The Kings rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 122.75 points is the top mark on the slate.

Middleton is a particularly strong target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 80%.

Value

Porzingis being out of the lineup is going to open up some value with the Mavericks. Josh Richardson stands out as one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.4% with Porzingis off the court this season, and he’s played the second-most minutes per game with Porzingis out of the lineup. He should be able to pay off his current salary vs. the Wizards.

Fast Break

Dorian Finney-Smith is another potential value option for the Mavs. He’s not a particularly appealing play on a points-per-minute basis, but he should see plenty of minutes with Porzingis out of the lineup. His $4,000 salary on FanDuel also comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.

Doug McDermott has been getting buckets for the Pacers this season, and he’s been playing some of his best basketball recently. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.14 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool). That makes him one of the strongest values of the day at $4,000 on DraftKings.

Power Forward

Stud

The decision between Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be one of the toughest on today’s slate. Doncic gets the benefit of playing without Porzingis, but Giannis is coming off a monster 72.4 FanDuel-point performance in his last outing. The Bucks also have the edge in terms of implied team total. If I can only have one, I’d probably give the slightest of edges to Doncic.

Of course, getting both into your lineup would be the ideal strategy, and that could be possible given all the injury questions on today’s slate.

Value

Isaiah Hartenstein has averaged a stout 1.29 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he should continue to see a few additional minutes for the shorthanded Cavaliers. Larry Nance Jr. and Jarrett Allen both remain out of the lineup, and Hartenstein played about 20 minutes with both players out of the lineup on Thursday. That’s enough playing time for him to potential pay off his current salary.

Fast Break

No one is projected for more minutes on today’s slate than Julius Randle. He’s currently projected for a whopping 39.0 minutes, and Randle is capable of doing plenty of damage with those minutes. He’s averaged 1.20 FanDuel points per minute this season, which trails only Giannis’ mark among today’s power forwards. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%.

Richaun Holmes leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he stands out as one of the best pure values as well. He’s priced at just $7,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s increased his production to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last outing, but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his four previous games.

Center

Stud

Myles Turner isn’t exactly priced like a stud, but he has a chance to provide stud-like production vs. the Spurs. He has been absolutely elite on the defensive end this season – he leads the league with an average of 3.5 blocks per game – and he has a chance to take on a larger role offensively if Domantas Sabonis is ruled out. Sabonis left yesterday’s game early due to an ankle injury, so there’s a chance he’s out of the lineup vs. the Spurs.

Value

It could be a Boban Marjanovic night. He should see a few minutes with Porzingis out of the lineup, and we know that it only takes a few minutes for Boban to smash. He’s averaged 1.25 DKFP per minute this season, so he should be able to pay off his $3,100 salary on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Nerlens Noel stands out as an elite value at just $4,900 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s coming off two-straight subpar games, but he should play more minutes tonight vs. the Pistons. The Pistons are a solid matchup, giving Noel an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.63.