Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Malcolm Brogdon is coming off a monster game in his last outing, finishing with 57.5 FanDuel points over 39.3 minutes. He’s been excellent in general recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.90 over his past 10 games, and he remains reasonably priced at $8,000 on FanDuel.
He will likely be looking at another expanded workload tonight vs. the Pistons. Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are both out of the lineup, and Goga Bitadze, Jeremy Lamb and Doug McDermott are all questionable. Brogdon has increased his usage rate by +5.4% with Sabonis and Turner off the court this season, and he’s averaged 1.25 FanDuel points per minute in that situation.
Value
The Heat are going to be without Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro vs. the Nuggets, which makes Kendrick Nunn an excellent option. He’s played three games with both players out of the lineup this season, and he’s averaged 36.58 DraftKings points in those contests. He’s also averaged more than 40 minutes of playing time, so he stands out as one of the best plays on the slate.
Fast Break
The Nuggets could also provide some value on Saturday. Jamal Murray and Monte Morris are both out of the lineup, and Will Barton has also been ruled out after exiting early with a hamstring injury on Friday. That leaves the team with plenty of minutes available in the backcourt.
That leaves plenty of minutes for Facundo Campazzo. He’s currently projected for 28.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a strong option at just $4,300. Shaq Harrison could also factor into the equation, and he’s priced at the absolute minimum across the industry.
John Wall is going to get the night off for the Rockets, and Kevin Porter Jr. remains sidelined due to health and safety protocols. D.J. Augustin and Sterling Brown are also out, which leaves the team almost completely devoid of point guard options. With that in mind, expect Armoni Brooks to see a large workload on Saturday. He’s currently projected for 33.3 minutes at just $3,800 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.25 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Caris LeVert is another member of the Pacers who should take on an expanded workload given their current injury situation. He’s coming off 56.0 FanDuel points in their last game, and he led the team with a 29.0% usage rate.
Loading up on the Pacers would make a lot of sense if any of the currently questionable players are ruled out in a great matchup vs. the Pistons. They rank just 19th in defensive efficiency, and the Pacers’ implied team total of 116.0 points ranks third on the slate. They also played just eight players with Lamb, McDermott and Bitadze out of the lineup on Wednesday.
Value
Avery Bradley is currently listed as questionable for the Rockets, but he should see some minutes at point guard if he’s able to suit up. He’s already seeing plenty of minutes at shooting guard for the shorthanded Rockets, but more playmaking opportunities would be a nice addition to his fantasy portfolio. Bradley is very pedestrian on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged just 0.59 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – but a few minutes at point guard could improve that number. Regardless, he’s too cheap at $3,400 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The top implied team total on the slate belongs to the Jazz, who are currently implied for 121.5 points vs. the Timberwolves. They are yet another team who is dealing with a big injury – Donovan Mitchell is out with an ankle injury – and Jordan Clarkson has been asked to pick up the slack. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games on FanDuel, and he’s posted a usage rate of at least 26.6% in each contest. He’s an excellent option at just $5,900 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%.
DeMar DeRozan is listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup vs. the Pelicans, but he warrants consideration on FanDuel if he’s active. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends, and his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%. The Pelicans are also an elite matchup, ranking just tied for 27th in defensive efficiency.
Make sure to monitor the myriad of injuries on today’s slate using the Labs Insiders tool.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler has played some of the best basketball of his career this season, and he’s in an awesome spot vs. the Bulls on Saturday. Not only will the team be shorthanded, but the Bulls have also allowed 114.5 points per 100 possessions over their past 14 games. That would be the second-worst mark in the league if sustained for the full season.
This game is also technically a revenge game for Butler, who the Bulls decided to trade before the 2017 NBA Draft. Revenge game narratives can be overblown, but Butler is definitely the type of guy who holds a grudge.
Value
Justin Holiday is another member of the Pacers to keep on your radar. He’s played plenty of minutes to begin with this season, and he would command an even larger workload if Lamb or McDermott are ruled out. He finished with 25.1 FanDuel points over 32.1 minutes in their last game, which makes him very reasonable at $4,100.
Fast Break
P.J. Dozier should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Barton’s absence. He’s been good recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in five straight games, and he finished with 29.7 minutes yesterday vs. the Warriors. He’s projected for a similar workload on Saturday, and Dozier has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Sticking with the Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr. is also an appealing option. He stands out on FanDuel, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute with Barton, Murray, and Morris off the court this season.
Power Forward
Stud
Power forward stands out as a great position to save some money on Saturday, but Zion Williamson does have some appeal on FanDuel. His $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%, and he’s increased his production to 1.43 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That’s the top mark at the position by a comfortable margin. His eight Pro Trends also rank second among today’s power forwards.
Value
Kenyon Martin Jr. is expected to take on a large workload for the Rockets on Saturday. He’s currently projected for 28.8 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a steal at just $3,600 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Martin has averaged 0.84 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s also more productive than the typical player in this price range.
Fast Break
Oshae Brissett delivered one of the most impressive performances of the season on Wednesday, racking up 51.5 DraftKings points over 42.1 minutes vs. the Thunder. His price has come up a bit for today’s matchup, but his $4,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He would become close to a must-play if Bitadze, Lamb and McDermott are ruled out once again, but he should be able to return value even if all three players are active.
Trevor Ariza is underpriced at $4,100 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 85%. He’s played at least 29.7 minutes in five straight games, and he’s logged at least 31.3 minutes in three of them. Given the Heat’s current injury situation, I would expect him to be towards the high-end of his minute’s range on Saturday.
Center
Stud
There is an abundance of value options to choose from on Saturday, so just do yourself a favor and plug Nikola Jokic into your lineup. He’s coming off back-to-back poor games, but Jokic is simply too good not to bounce back. He’s averaged 1.57 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s increased his usage rate by +7.6% with Murray, Barton and Morris off the court.
Jokic is also in a smash spot vs. the Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.23. Jokic is projected for nearly 10 more points than any other player in our models, so he is mandatory in cash games.
Value
Mason Plumlee is a nice option to pair with Jokic on DraftKings. He should be back in the lineup after resting in the Pistons’ last game, and he racked up 44.0 DraftKings points the last time he was active. Plumlee also has arguably the best matchup at the position vs. the Pacers, who could be without their top three center options if Bitadze is ruled out.
Fast Break
There are a few interesting pivots if you want to avoid Jokic in tournaments. These guys should all check in with minimal ownership, but they have solid upside:
- Bam Adebayo ($8,500 on FanDuel, $8,300 on DraftKings): He should see some additional playmaking responsibilities with Dragic and Herro out of the lineup, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.75 vs. the Bulls.
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900 on FanDuel, $10,500 on DraftKings): There is no reason to play him over Jokic on DraftKings – he’s only $400 cheaper – but the price discrepancy is wide enough to warrant consideration on FanDuel
- Nikola Vucevic ($8,700 on FanDuel, $10,200): This is another FanDuel only play, but he leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on that site. His 88% Bargain Rating is also tied for the top mark at the position.
