Saturday features a three-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Jordan Poole has been doing a ton of heavy lifting for the Warriors with Steph Curry out of the lineup. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.29 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s coming off a massive 64.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to many wins for the Warriors, who are just 1-7 over their past eight games. Overall, Poole has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models. He leads the position with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
The Heat have an abundance of playmakers when the team is at full strength, so Kyle Lowry hasn’t been asked to do nearly as much as he did with the Raptors. He’s averaging just 13.2 points and 7.5 assists per game, and his 32.67 DraftKings points per game is his lowest mark since 2012-13.
That’s caused his price tag to plummet to $5,700, and Lowry is still capable of paying that off. He’s been priced below $6,300 on just one previous occasion this season, and he posted 37.5 DraftKings points in that outing. Lowry has also scored at least 33.0 DraftKings points in four of his past seven contests, so take the discount while you can.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving stands out as one of the best values at the position on FanDuel, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.68 is also one of the better marks at the position.
Mike Conley checks a lot of the same boxes as Lowry. Both players have seen noticeable declines this season, but both players are still capable of returning fantasy value. Conley is the more appealing buy-low target on FanDuel at just $5,300.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell is often overlooked when discussing the best young players in the league, but he’s already one of the game’s best scorers. He’s on pace to average at least 26 points per game for the second-straight year, and he ranks sixth in the league in usage.
The Warriors haven’t been a team you want to target in DFS this season, but our options are slim on a three-game slate. Their defense has also been a bit leakier than usual of late, ranking just 19th in defensive efficiency over their past five games.
Value
The matchup between the Nets and Hawks stands out as the clear top target on this slate. The total sits at 240.0 points, and neither of the other games is above 218.0. This game also has massive implications for both squads, so both teams figure to rely heavily on their best players.
Unfortunately for the Nets, they are going to be without Bruce Brown. Brown racked up 34.1 minutes in their last outing, so those minutes are going to have to go somewhere. Seth Curry is also questionable, but he should grab at least a few of those minutes if he’s able to suit up. His tenure with the Nets has been mostly disappointing, but he remains one of the best perimeter shooters in the league. He has upside if he gets hot from behind the arc.
Fast Break
If Curry is also ruled out, Patty Mills becomes extremely appealing at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. Even if Curry is in, Mills is still expected to provide solid value. His per-minute production is way down, but he’s still averaged 0.70 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s also projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and that number could skyrocket if Curry is sidelined.
Ayo Dosunmu is down to just $3,800 on FanDuel, and that’s simply too cheap given his volume of minutes. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes on Saturday, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.57 (per the Trends tool).
Small Forward
Stud
Zach LaVine has also been priced down to a point where he’s hard to ignore. He’s taken a backseat to DeMar DeRozan for much of the year, but LaVine is still a very capable bucket-getter. He’s been priced below $7,800 on DraftKings on just five previous occasions this season, and he’s averaged 39.15 DraftKings points in those contests. This will be his first game of the year below $7,500, so this is a nice opportunity to buy low on a talented player.
Value
The Warriors are searching for answers as they continue to plummet in the standings without Curry. Luckily, Otto Porter Jr. has suited up in two of their past three games after spending plenty of time on the sidelines. Porter is an excellent per-minute fantasy producer, averaging 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s logged at least 26.6 minutes in each of his past two games, and Porter can do some serious damage with that much playing time. He’s one of the best value options on the slate.
Fast Break
Cam Thomas is another potential value option for the Nets. He’s not projected for as many minutes as Mills, but he’s been better on a per-minute basis this season.
Andrew Wiggins is another player who has had to pick up the slack sans Curry. He’s seen a +2.4% usage bump with Curry off the court this season, which is the second-highest mark on the squad. He’s also one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, leading all small forwards with a 94% Bargain Rating.
Power Forward
Stud
The Nets remain the betting favorites to win the Eastern Conference, but they’re currently in a precarious position. They’re tied with the Hawks and Hornets in the standings, and finishing at the top of that trio is vital. The team that finishes with the best record in that group will get two chances of qualifying for the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament, while the teams that finish at the bottom will need to win two straight games.
With that in mind, expect the Nets to push Kevin Durant as hard as possible down the stretch. KD has already been carrying an immense workload, and he’s played at least 39.4 minutes in four of his past five games. Durant has also averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, giving him an elite combination of volume and efficiency. The Hawks rank just 26th in defensive efficiency this season, so Durant should be able to carve them up.
Value
P.J. Tucker is not someone who usually gets attention in DFS, but he’s tough to ignore on a three-game slate. He’s priced just $100 more than the minimum, but he has a decent role with the Heat. He expected to see around 26 minutes on Saturday, and Tucker has averaged 0.70 DraftKings points per minute this season. That’s nothing to get excited about, but it’s enough to justify a selection at this salary.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan continues to have the most interesting positional splits in DFS: He’s a PF on DraftKings but a SG/SF on FanDuel. Regardless of where you’re playing him on Saturday, he leads his respective position in Pro Trends. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, but PF is a weaker position overall.
Bam Adebayo has PF eligibility on FanDuel, and playing him there is always viable. Center is quite crowded today, but power forward is weak behind Durant. Adebayo has averaged 1.30 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and Durant is the only other player above 1.07.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond continues to stand out as one of the best values in fantasy. He’s started each game as a member of the Nets, and he’s racked up at least 28.3 minutes in each of his past three contests. That’s a ton of playing time for someone like Drummond. He’s averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should easily pay off this price tag with that much playing time. He was slightly disappointing in his last game, finishing with just 28.5 DraftKings, but he scored at least 33.75 in each of his three previous outings.
Value
The Hawks are essentially splitting the center minutes between Onyeka Okongwu and Clint Capela, so I will gladly take the player who is approximately $3K cheaper. Okongwu isn’t quite as good as Capela on a per-minute basis, but his average of 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is still very respectable.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic is almost always underpriced on FanDuel, and Saturday’s slate is no exception. His $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%, and he leads the entire slate with 13 Pro Trends. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games, and there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again.
Rudy Gobert could fly a bit under the radar on DraftKings. Drummond will likely absorb most of the ownership at the position, but Gobert is an elite option in his own right. He’s down to just $7,600, and Gobert has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.92 with a comparable price tag.
