Saturday features a six-game slate starting at 4:30 p.m. ET. Using the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models tool, here’s a break down of the top DFS plays for each position on tonight’s slate.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook continues to absolutely dominate from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.43 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 68.5 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. Overall, he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.73 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among today’s players by a sizable margin.
He’s the most expensive player on the slate on DraftKings, but you can still make a case he’s one of the best pure values: His $10,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Value
Coby White stands out as almost a must-play at $4,500 on FanDuel. He moved into the starting lineup in their last game, and he figures to be one of their offensive focal points with Zach LaVine sidelined. He responded with 42.5 FanDuel points over 33.4 minutes, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +27.31. There’s a chance that Tomas Satoransky could return to the lineup on Saturday – which would diminish White’s appeal – but he should still see a ton of work for as long as LaVine is sidelined.
Fast Break
The Pistons are expected to get back Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee and Cory Joseph for tonight’s matchup vs. the Wizards, but they’re still going to have plenty of minutes available in the backcourt. Dennis Smith Jr. and Killian Hayes have both been ruled out, while Frank Jackson is currently listed as questionable.
That means Saben Lee should get a handful of minutes, and he’s capable of taking advantage. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $3,200 salary.
Ja Morant continues to get cheaper on FanDuel, which makes him an interesting buy-low target. He’s priced at just $6,800 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Bucks, and Morant has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.61 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Westbrook’s emergence has had a negative impact on Bradley Beal. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -4.21 over his past 10 games, and his fantasy production has dropped to just 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
That’s caused his salary to drop to just $8,300 on FanDuel. That represents a decrease of -$1,200 over the past month and a decrease of more than -$2,000 from his absolute peak. Beal isn’t going to struggle forever, and buying low on players of his caliber is typically a +EV strategy.
Value
Garrett Temple is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and he also started for the Bulls in their last game. He’s currently projected for 24.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and minimum-priced players have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +3.41 with a comparable minute projection. Temple is also in a solid spot vs. the Cavaliers, who rank just 19th in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies have been playing shorthanded recently, and they’ll likely be without a few key contributors again on Saturday. Brandon Clarke, De’Anthony Melton and Justise Winslow are all doubtful, which means Dillon Brooks should continue to play a few additional minutes. He’s currently projected for 29.9 minutes in our NBA Models, and Brooks has averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute this season.
The Bucks lead the slate with an implied team total of 122.75 points, and they will be without Donte DiVincenzo for the second-straight game. Bryn Forbes started in place of DiVincenzo, but Pat Connaughton was the bigger beneficiary off the bench. He played 26.1 minutes in his last game and responded with 23.6 FanDuel points.
Small Forward
Stud
Small forward doesn’t seem like a particularly exciting position to pay up at on Saturday. That said, Jaylen Brown could be worth some consideration if he’s active. He’s currently questionable with a non-COVID-related illness, but he was absolutely phenomenal in his last game. He finished with 56.25 points thanks to 40 points scored, and he shot a blistering 85% from the field. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but he is in a nice spot vs. the Warriors. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, and the Celtics’ implied team total ranks tied for third on today’s slate.
Value
Rui Hachimura has been a disappointment recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel, but his minutes are trending in the right direction. He played 34.6 minutes two games ago, and he increased that mark to 42.4 minutes in Friday’s overtime win vs. the Pelicans. He should be looking at another sizable workload vs. the Pistons with Davis Bertans out of the lineup, which makes him a nice bounce-back target on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Fast Break
Patrick Williams hasn’t been particularly effective on a per-minute basis recently, but he should be able to return value on Saturday through sheer volume. He’s currently projected for 30.3 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a ton of playing time for someone who costs just $3,900.
Kelly Oubre has missed the past four games for the Warriors, but he’s been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s matchup vs. the Celtics. There’s a chance he could be limited if he’s able to suit up, but he would still be an interesting option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%. Oubre has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value. His ownership should also be very reasonable.
Power Forward
Stud
Is Giannis Antetokounmpo playable at the moment? It’s almost crazy to say that about the reigning back-to-back MVP, especially given his average of 1.68 DraftKings points per minute this season. That said, he missed five straight games due to an injury, and the Bucks limited him to just 24.9 minutes in his first game back. He’ll likely see a few additional minutes on Saturday, but it’s expected the Bucks continue to bring him along slowly. Not even Giannis is talented enough to warrant consideration at $10,600 on DraftKings and $11,000 on FanDuel with such a minimal minute projection.
Value
The Bulls suddenly have a ton of frontcourt options, which has limited Thaddeus Young’s playing time of late. However, his price has dipped to just $4,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he’s seen one of the largest bumps in value with LaVine off the court this season. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.17 FanDuel points per minute in that situation, which trails only Nikola Vucevic’s mark of 1.47.
Fast Break
Daniel Gafford has seen a massive boost in value since being traded to the Wizards. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.47 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his athleticism meshes well with how Westbrook likes to play point guard. He’s coming off nearly 26 minutes yesterday vs. the Pelicans, and Gafford has monster upside at $3,800 with that much playing time.
Jerami Grant is one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. His playing time has waned a bit over the second half of the season, but he’s still projected for 32.4 minutes in our NBA Models. Grant has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so that should be more than enough playing time for him to return value in a great matchup vs. the Wizards.
Center
Stud
Jonas Valanciunas has been an awesome fantasy investment recently, thanks in part to his increased workload. He’s played at least 31.6 minutes in five straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them. He should continue to see a few additional minutes with Clarke out of the lineup, and Valanciunas leads all centers with an average of 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Value
Daniel Theis is another potential value option for the Bulls. He’s played at least 26.9 minutes in four of his past six games, and he’s unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them. In fact, he’s absolutely smashed in those contests, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +12.04 in all four games. He was a slight disappointment yesterday vs. the Grizzlies, but there’s no reason he can’t bounce back vs. the Cavaliers.
Fast Break
Like Grant, Mason Plumlee has also seen his playing time decrease over the second half of the season, but he’s also a strong option on Saturday. He’s been priced down across the industry, but he’s averaged a stout 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Wizards are also an elite option, with Plumlee’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.20 ranking first at the position.
Vucevic is worth some stud consideration on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games.
