The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
There are plenty of strong options at point guard, but it’s hard to look past James Harden as the top overall target. He’s been phenomenal for the Nets recently, scoring at least 64.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.60 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Harden is also logging all the minutes he can handle with Kevin Durant sidelined, playing at least 37.7 in five straight games. Harden is currently projected for 38.0 minutes on Wednesday’s slate, which is the third-highest mark in our NBA Models.
Value
Tomas Satoransky has provided elite fantasy value in back-to-back games. He moved into the starting lineup two games ago, and he’s responded with at least 31.5 DraftKings in both contests. He should continue to start with Coby White coming off the bench in a sixth-man role, and Satoransky has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season. That should make him an elite value for the third-straight slate.
Fast Break
On the other side of that matchup, Dejounte Murray should be looking at another expanded workload. DeMar DeRozan remains out of the lineup for personal reasons, while LaMarcus Aldridge has been shut down indefinitely. Murray has increased his usage rate by +1.5% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. The Bulls have also played at the sixth-fastest pace this season, which makes them a nice matchup from a fantasy perspective.
There are a ton of strong values to consider at point guard on FanDuel, but Ben Simmons stands out as the best of the bunch. His $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Joel Embiid. Simmons also owns an excellent matchup vs. the Bucks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.03.
Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Simmons
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has had a tremendous season, and he’s currently leading the league with an average of 32.3 points per game. He gets an elite matchup vs. the Kings, who rank dead last in terms of defensive efficiency. The Wizards’ implied team total of 125.0 is the top mark on the slate, so Beal has even more scoring upside than usual on Wednesday. He also leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Value
Josh Jackson recently missed some time for the Pistons, and they’ve eased him back into the rotation over the past few games. That said, he’s coming off 26.8 minutes in his last outing, which means he’s essentially back to playing his full workload. Jackson has averaged 1.00 DraftKings per minute this season, so approximately 27 minutes should be enough for him to pay off his salary vs. the Raptors.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins has had an up-and-down season for the Warriors, and his price has dipped to just $5,400 on FanDuel for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Rockets. That’s probably too cheap. The Warriors’ implied team total of 120.25 is the third-highest mark on the slate, and Wiggins has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.25 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
Caris LeVert has the potential to be one of the best values of the day at just $4,400 on FanDuel. The Pacers have wasted very little time ramping up his workload, and he’s coming off 29.4 minutes in just his second game with the squad. He will likely see a few additional minutes today, and LeVert has averaged a stout 1.22 FanDuel points per minute this season. His current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%, which is the top mark at the position.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard is about as cheap as he’s been all season on DraftKings, and he has a chance to be one of the best plays of the day. The Clippers played a very tight rotation with Serge Ibaka out of the lineup in their last game, and Leonard logged a whopping 40.4 minutes. Leonard has always prioritized load management during the regular season, but the Clippers may have no choice but to lean on him again if Ibaka is ruled out for the second-straight game.
The Mavericks also represent a wonderful matchup. They rank 25th in defensive efficiency, so the Clippers should be able to put up plenty of points.
Make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool to monitor all the injury news on Wednesday’s massive slate.
Chris Elise/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Clippers F Kawhi Leonard
Value
Kevin Love will be another important player to monitor heading into lineup lock. He was inactive in the Cavs’ game on Tuesday, and there’s been no update on his status vs. the Celtics.
If he’s out once again, expect Larry Nance Jr. to carry a heavy workload. He logged 37.6 minutes Tuesday vs. the Heat and responded with 34.25 DraftKings points. Nance has always been the type of player who racks up fantasy points when on the court, so he can do a lot of damage with that much playing time.
Fast Break
The Celtics could be an interesting team on Wednesday’s slate. They’re playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Kemba Walker has sat in those situations all year. There’s been no official word on Walker’s status vs. the Cavaliers, but it’s highly likely that he’s out of the lineup.
If that’s the case, it will open up some additional shot attempts for Jaylen Brown. That would make him a nice option at $7,300 on FanDuel, especially since the Cavs rank 24th in defensive efficiency.
Khris Middleton has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.22 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, yet he never seems to command much ownership. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%.
Power Forward
Stud
Power forward looks like an excellent position to save some salary at on Wednesday. There are a bunch of strong value options to consider, and Richaun Holmes has the potential to provide stud-like production at a middling salary.
Marvin Bagley suffered a fractured hand in Monday’s matchup vs. the Hornets, which allowed Holmes to log nearly 41 minutes of playing time. He finished with 57.75 DraftKings points, which is not surprising given his average of 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Wizards have also been a dream matchup for big men this season, ranking first in pace and 26th in rebound rate. Overall, Holmes’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.49 on DraftKings is the top mark at the position.
Value
Let’s double dip with the Kings. Nemanja Bjelica has the chance to see a few additional minutes with Bagley sidelined — especially if Hassan Whiteside is forced to miss his ninth straight game due to health and safety protocols.
Whiteside has been upgraded to questionable, but he will likely be limited even if he is able to suit up. Bjelica has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he should have the opportunity to play around 25 minutes in the same elite matchup as Holmes. Bjelica is an elite target at $3,700 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis is coming off a poor performance in his last game, which has caused his salary to drop to just $9,200 on FanDuel. That results in a Bargain Rating of 72%, which makes him a nice buy-low target in a strong matchup vs. the Nets. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.02, and Sabonis has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.04 with a comparable salary this season.
Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images. Pictured: Domantas Sabonis #11 of the Indiana Pacers.
Tony Bradley is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 80%. He’s split the center minutes with Dwight Howard in place of Embiid, and he’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Center
Stud
Everyone knows Nikola Jokic is having a great season, but we need to take a second to appreciate just how dominant he’s actually been. He’s averaging 27.3 points, 11.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game, which is basically unheard of for a big man. There have been great rebounding guards who have managed to put up comparable stat lines in the past — Oscar Robertson, Russell Westbrook, etc. — but we have never seen a center put up such complete numbers.
Overall, he ranks in the top 10 in points, rebounds and assists per game this season.
He should have no problems racking up points in all three categories against the Hornets on Wednesday. They rank 10th in pace, 17th in defensive efficiency, and 15th in team rebound rate this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.77 for Jokic on FanDuel.
In short, Jokic is the only option if you’re paying up at center.
Value
Tristan Thompson was out of the lineup for the Celtics yesterday, and there’s been no update on his status for Wednesday. If he’s ruled out once again, Daniel Theis is going to be an excellent value at $4,100. He racked up 39.75 DraftKings points over 26.3 minutes on Tuesday, and that was in a tough matchup vs. the Jazz. He the upside for an even better performance vs. the Cavaliers, especially if Walker is also ruled out.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan has seen a nice spike in playing time recently. He’s logged at least 28.8 minutes in four of his past five games, and he should be asked to play at least that many minutes tonight vs. the Pacers. They are one of the biggest teams in the league, and the Nets don’t have a ton of center options outside of Jordan. DJ has averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season, making him way underpriced at just $4,300.
Jakob Poeltl owns arguably the best matchup at the position vs. the Bulls. He leads all centers with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.92 on FanDuel, where he also owns a Bargain Rating of 75%. He should continue to see plenty of minutes for the shorthanded Spurs, so he’s definitely a viable target.
Pictured above: Kings forward Nemanja Bjelica
Credit: Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images
