The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall stands out as one of the best values of the day on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $8,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.32 over his past 10 games. He’s also posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests, so he’s provided one of the safest floors in fantasy.
Wall has increased his fantasy production to 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should be looking at an expanded workload vs. the Bulls. Victor Oladipo is currently listed as doubtful, and Christian Wood remains out of the lineup. DeMarcus Cousins is also questionable, which could leave Wall as the last man standing in Houston. The Bulls also represent an excellent matchup, ranking 20th in defensive efficiency and fourth in pace.
Value
Alex Caruso is priced essentially at the minimum at $3,600 on FanDuel, but he’s in a wonderful spot. The Wizards have been arguably the best matchup in fantasy this season, and Caruso leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.54. He should also continue to see a few additional minutes with Dennis Schroder out of the lineup. He failed to return value in his last matchup, but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his previous five games.
Brian Sevald/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Caruso
Fast Break
The Grizzlies are going to be closer to full strength vs. the Mavericks, but Dillon Brooks has been ruled out for the third straight game. Ja Morant has seen a team-high usage bump of +5.4% with Brooks off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.14 FanDuel points per minute. That makes Morant a very appealing target at just $7,200 given his Bargain Rating of 75%.
Luka Doncic has gotten expensive, but he’s been worth every penny recently. He’s scored at least 64.0 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games, and he’s increased his production to 1.62 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He leads the position in Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he could carry a bit lower ownership than usual.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Terry Rozier has been one of the best values in fantasy recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.91 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 44.1 FanDuel points in each of his past four. His price has remained reasonable at $7,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Devonte’ Graham is also expected to miss another game, and Rozier leads the Hornets with an average of 1.17 FanDuel points per minute in games without Graham this season.
Value
Eric Gordon should also benefit from the Rockets’ absences vs. the Bulls. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.0% with Oladipo, Wood and James Harden off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.00 DraftKings points per minute. Gordon is currently projected for 33.8 minutes in our NBA Models, so he’s underpriced across the industry.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might be the best pure value on the slate on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and SGA has averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.06 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool). Al Horford is also a prime rest candidate on the second leg of a back-to-back, so SGA could carry an even larger workload than usual.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another potential value option for the Lakers. He’s been pitiful recently on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged 0.46 FanDuel points per minute over the past month – but he might be able to pay off his current salary through sheer volume. He’s priced at just $3,700 on FanDuel and is projected for 28.4 minutes.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James hasn’t exactly crushed since Anthony Davis went out with an injury, but he’s in a potential smash spot vs. the Wizards. Washington ranks first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, which is an elite combination for fantasy purposes. The Lakers’ implied team total of 117.0 is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate. LeBron has increased his usage rate by +2.6% with Davis and Schroder off the court this season, so he’s insane upside in this matchup. He owns the highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models despite being just the third-most expensive player.
Value
Garrett Temple has been another extremely consistent fantasy producer recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.06 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s posted a Consistency Rating of 92% over the past month. His salary has gotten a bit more expensive across the industry, but he’s scored at least 28.0 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. That would be more than enough to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
Justise Winslow suited up for the first time all season in the Grizzlies’ last game, and he finished with a respectable 19.25 DraftKings points over 21.2 minutes. His playing time should increase as he gets further removed from his injury, so he has the potential to provide excellent value if he keeps up the same per-minute production. He’s a reasonable option at $3,600 on DraftKings.
It doesn’t get much more boring than rostering Dorian Finney-Smith in fantasy, but it’s been a great decision recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 23.0 FanDuel points in each of his past four. He’s playing a ton of minutes for the Mavericks, which has been more than enough to overcome a mediocre per-minute average. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.31.
Power Forward
Stud
There aren’t any studs to consider paying up for at power forward on DraftKings, but Kristaps Porzingis stands out as an excellent option on FanDuel. His $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%, and his matchup vs. the Grizzlies comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.31. Don’t expect him to play more than 32 minutes, but he’s capable of paying off his current salary without a traditional stud workload.
Value
You can add Royce O’Neale to the list of “boring” players who are a good bet to return value. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last game, which has caused his salary to drop across the industry. He had scored 25.5 DraftKings points in three straight games, so he’s a prime buy-low option.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma is another option who should benefit from the Lakers’ current injury situation. He’s started the past three games in place of Davis, and Kuzma has played at least 34.2 minutes in his past two. He’s finished with at least 30.0 DraftKings points in both of those contests, and he launched a season-high 21 shot attempts in his last game.
Pictured: Lakers F Kyle Kuzma (0), Photo Credit: Sean M. Haffey-Getty Images
Bam Adebayo has PF eligibility on FanDuel, and he’s another option you can consider paying up for. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends, and he could be forced into a larger role offensively than usual. Goran Dragic remains out of the lineup, and Tyler Herro is questionable with a hip injury.
Center
Stud
Another day, another slate for which Rudy Gobert is underpriced on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s been very productive recently, increasing his output to 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s the second-highest mark at the position, and he should be able to dominate on the interior against the Hornets. They’re a below-average rebounding team, and they’re also below-average in terms of points in the paint allowed.
Value
Wendell Carter played 33.1 minutes in his last game, and he should be able to return value with that much playing time. He’s averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.97 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton has not had a great season from a fantasy perspective, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -4.46 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, he’s tough to ignore at just $6,400. Ayton has had a comparable salary in only 11 previous games, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.94 in those contests. That makes him a very interesting buy-low option.
The Cousins’ situation is going to be very interesting to monitor. He and the team have reportedly agreed to part ways, but he’s still on the roster for the time being. He’s currently listed as questionable, and he definitely has some fantasy appeal if he’s in the lineup. Cousins put together a huge game in his last outing, finishing with 45.6 FanDuel points over 36.6 minutes. Make sure to follow along with any updates on his status using the Labs Insiders tool.
