Saturday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Ben Simmons continues to stand out as one of the best values on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in each of his first two playoff games this season, despite the fact that he played just 28.6 minutes in his last contest. He’s also crushed in four games vs. the 76ers this season, scoring at least 45.75 DraftKings points in each.
The 76ers lead the slate with an implied team total of 116.5 points, and Simmons’ $7,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He should be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, but he’s a very tough fade at his current salary.
Value
Goran Dragic is coming off a poor performance in his last game. His -1.31 Plus/Minus on FanDuel wasn’t overly disappointing, but he shot just 3-of-14 from the field. That gives him plenty of room for improvement Saturday vs. the Bucks. He’s currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Dragic has averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Russell Westbrook is currently listed as questionable after suffering an ankle injury during Game 2. He was unable to practice on Friday, but it’s hard to imagine that he doesn’t suit up in a must-win game for the Wizards. As long as he’s active, he’s an interesting buy-low candidate on FanDuel. His $11,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%, and Westbrook has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.01 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
The Blazers are currently down 2-1 in their series vs. the Nuggets, but it hasn’t been due to the play of Damian Lillard. He’s scored at least 53.0 DraftKings points in all three games, including 68.5 DraftKings points in Game 2. He’s very reasonably priced at $9,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
If you’re not going with Lillard on Saturday, consider CJ McCollum instead. Both players are negatively correlated, so using McCollum in lineups without Lillard makes a lot of sense. His salary has also decreased across the industry, but he’s still playing huge minutes for the Blazers. He’s currently projected for 40 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Value
Like most of the 76ers, Seth Curry barely had to break a sweat in his last game. He played just 23.1 minutes in the blowout victory, and he unsurprisingly failed to return value in that contest. His playing time should return to normal if Saturday’s game is more competitive, which makes him a nice buy-low target as long as he’s active. He’s currently listed as probable, so make sure to monitor his status using the Labs Insiders tool.
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday has been a massive upgrade for the Bucks. He wasn’t necessarily asked to do a ton during the regular season, but he’s given the Bucks’ offense another dimension during the postseason. He also gives the Bucks a legitimate counter when opposing defenses pack the paint against Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Holiday has racked up double-doubles in each of his past two games.
David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jrue Holiday
Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the second-highest mark among Saturday’s shooting guards.
Monte Morris is still working his way back to full strength, but he’s going to be an important player for the Nuggets during the postseason. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he has historically operated as the Nuggets’ starting point guard with Jamal Murray out of the lineup. Facundo Campazzo is handling that responsibility for the time being, but Morris should still see plenty of playing time off the bench.
Small Forward
Stud
The Heat have their backs against the wall on Saturday. Teams can go two different ways in that situation: Dig deep or fold up shop. But I think the Heat will give this game their best effort. Specifically, expect Jimmy Butler to do everything possible to try and lead this team to a victory. They may not have the talent to actually pull it off, but Butler is not the type of guy to go down without a fight.
He’s currently projected for 40.7 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the second-highest mark among Saturday’s players. He’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has the potential for a huge performance.
Value
SF doesn’t stand out as a great position to pay down at. That said, Danny Green could provide some value at just $4,400 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.80 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he should see more than 30 minutes if Saturday’s game stays competitive.
Fast Break
Michael Porter Jr. should continue to serve as the Nuggets’ No. 2 option offensively, and he has plenty of appeal in that role. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +4.4% with Murray, Will Barton, and P.J. Dozier off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.16 DraftKings points per minute. The Nuggets have plenty of offensive upside vs. the Blazers, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency.
Bradley Beal has SF eligibility on DraftKings, and he leads the position with nine Pro Trends on Saturday. He also stands out as one of the best pure values at the position given his Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two playoff games this season, and he would obviously become an elite option if Westbrook unexpectedly sits.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is in a tier of his own at power forward on Saturday. He’s in a tier of his own on most slates, but the gap between Giannis and the rest of the players at the position is particularly stark on Saturday. No other player is priced above $7,900 on FanDuel, and only one other player is priced above $5,600.
Giannis has massive appeal during the postseason. He’s one of the best producers in the league on a per-minute basis — he’s averaged 1.63 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he has the potential to carry a massive workload during the playoffs.
He’s currently projected for 38.7 minutes in our NBA Models, and it’s hard to imagine him busting with that much playing time.
Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Value
Jaren Jackson Jr. is coming off 31.3 minutes in his last outing. That doesn’t sound like a ton, but it’s a step in the right direction. His playing time has slowly ramped up since joining the rotation near the end of the season, and he’s averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute this season. He has the upside to crush his $5,600 salary Saturday vs. the Jazz.
Fast Break
Royce O’Neale is one of the safest options on the slate. He’s coming off 33.9 minutes and 27.1 FanDuel points in his last outing, and he should be able to duplicate those numbers on Saturday. He’s projected for 33.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.46 on FanDuel.
Tobias Harris has PF eligibility on DraftKings, and he stands out as one of the best pure values on that site. He owns a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in his first two games during the postseason. That includes 51.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 when he carried a full workload.
Center
Stud
There are plenty of elite center options to consider paying up for on Saturday, but Rudy Gobert stands out as the best on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he has been outstanding in this series on a per-minute basis. He was limited to just 25 minutes in Game 1 due to foul trouble, but he still averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute in that contest. His playing time returned to normal in Game 2, and he racked up 50.75 DraftKings points. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.36 is the top mark at the position on DraftKings, so he’s simply way too cheap in this matchup.
Value
You can play Robert Covington at center on DraftKings, and he’s a nice option if you’re paying down at the position. He’s priced at just $4,700, and he’s projected for a whopping 37 minutes on Saturday’s slate. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.86.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid has had a quiet start to his postseason, but the 76ers really haven’t asked him to do too much yet. That will change eventually. He can definitely do some damage vs. the Wizards if he needs to given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.44 on FanDuel, and his salary is down across the industry.
Nikola Jokic leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and I certainly wouldn’t fault you for paying up for him. He’s been arguably the best player in fantasy this season, and he’s capable of racking up fantasy points in a variety of ways. He hasn’t had a smash performance yet vs. the Blazers, but he has returned value in each of their first three matchups during the playoffs.
