The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic sat out the Mavericks’ last game, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup tonight. That said, the Mavs are still dealing with plenty of injuries. Kristaps Porzingis has already been ruled out, while Seth Curry is listed as questionable. That means Doncic could be looking at an expanded workload. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.4% with Porzingis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.69 DraftKings points per minute.
Doncic is also priced down a bit at the moment. He’s priced at just $10,300 on DraftKings, and Doncic has averaged a Plus/Minus of +10.05 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
Value
Mike Conley stands out as one of the best values at the position on DraftKings, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. Conley has been a disappointment for the Jazz this season, but he’s been a strong fantasy asset of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season.
He owns an excellent matchup today vs. the Cavaliers, who rank dead-last in defensive efficiency. Utah’s implied team total of 115.75 doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but it still represents a significant increase when compared to their season average (111.3).
Fast Break
Coby White is an interesting option today for the Bulls. For starters, he’s been excellent recently, increasing his fantasy production to 1.09 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. The Bulls are also expected to be pretty shorthanded today. Lauri Markkanen has already been ruled out, and Zach LaVine is currently listed as doubtful. Kris Dunn also remains out, and White has increased his usage rate by a team-high +5.1% with all three players off the court this season.
Collin Sexton has a brutal matchup today vs. the Jazz, but he still leads the position with 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel. Thats not a number that you see everyday, and PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.09.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games on DraftKings, which makes this a rare opportunity to buy low on him. His price has decreased by -$1,500 over the past month, and his $10,500 salary is very reasonable given his ceiling. Harden has averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.54 with a comparable salary this season.
He’s in a nice bounce-back spot today vs. the Knicks. They rank just 25th in defensive efficiency, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 120.25 ranks second on the slate.
Value
Dillon Brooks has seen a nice boost in value recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games, and he’s seen a spike in playing time given the Grizzlies’ injury situation. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke are both out with extended injuries, so expect Brooks to continue to play extended minutes.
He’s in a great spot today vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who have been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season. They rank fourth in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, giving Brooks an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.31 on DraftKings. He’s also underpriced on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 82%.
Fast Break
On the other side of that matchup, Kevin Huerter stands out as an appealing value on FanDuel. He’s priced at $5,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and it’s hard to find someone with a comparable minute projection and salary. He’s currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the third-highest mark at the position.
Damian Lillard remains out for the Blazers, which means C.J. McCollum should be looking at another expanded workload. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.7% in six games without Lillard this season, resulting in an average of 50.77 FanDuel points per game.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is always the priciest SF option on the slate, but the gap between him and the rest of his peers is particularly large today. He’s priced at $11,500 on FanDuel, and no other option is priced above $5,900. He’s seen a slight reduction in efficiency recently, but his average of 1.89 FanDuel points per minute over the past month is still the top mark on the slate by a wide margin. Giannis has also seen more minutes recently, which is a big reason why he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games.
He would be a particularly tough fade if Khris Middleton is unable to suit up. Middleton is currently listed as questionable, and Giannis has averaged 60.36 FanDuel points in nine games without Middleton this season.
Value
Cam Reddish is currently questionable a back injury, but he’ll be an appealing value option if he’s active. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen plenty of playing time recently. He’s played at least 31.2 minutes in four of his past six games, so he probably would’ve played more in his last game if not for his back injury.
Reddish is also in a solid spot vs. the Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.46 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Shaq Harrison is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting punt play. He’s still not expected to see a ton of playing time for the shorthanded Bulls — he’s currently projected for 18.2 minutes — but he’s averaged a stout 1.10 DraftKings points per minute with LaVine, Markkanen, and Dunn off the court this season.
Jae Crowder has been excellent since joining the Heat. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.99 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s underpriced at just $4,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Power Forward
Stud
The Rockets’ small ball experiment has definitely been a success, but it has come with one glaring weakness. They’ve been abysmal on the glass, ranking dead-last in rebound rate during the month of February.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Knicks’ have ranked first in the league in rebounding during that time frame. Julius Randle has been a big part of that success. He’s pulled down at least nine boards in six of his past seven games, and he’s pulled down at least 12 boards in three of those contests. He should have a field day on the interior vs. the Rockets given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.37 on DraftKings. Overall, he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Value
Maxi Kleber should see a boost in playing time today given the injury to Porzingis. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of a few additional minutes. He’s also in an excellent spot vs. the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.46.
Fast Break
Kevin Love stands out as one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s also expected to see a large workload today with Andre Drummond unlikely to suit up. Love played 37.3 minutes in his last game, and that was with Drummond in the lineup.
Drew Eubanks started the second-half in place of Jakob Poeltl in the Spurs’ last game, and he could move into the starting lineup today. Poeltl is expected to miss the next 2-4 weeks, and LaMarcus Aldridge is doubtful. Eubanks scored 13.25 DraftKings points over 16.5 minutes in his last game, which makes him an interesting punt play at the absolute minimum.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic stands out as one of the strongest plays of the day, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Blazers, who have been one of the best matchups for opposing centers this season. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.05 on FanDuel, which is the top mark at the position.
He would also see a bump in value if Aaron Gordon is ultimately ruled out. Vucevic increased his usage rate by +7.3% with Gordon off the court during the month of February, which gives him significantly increased upside.
Value
Mitchell Robinson is another member of the Knicks who has potential vs. the Rockets. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s also been playing a few additional minutes recently. He’s logged at least 28.9 minutes in each of his past three games, which is significantly higher than his season average of 23.0 minutes per game.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas is another center who has been playing a few additional minutes recently. It makes sense given the injuries to Jackson and Clarke, and Valanciunas has always been an excellent producer on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his matchup vs. the Hawks isn’t particularly daunting.
Wendell Carter Jr. returned to the Bulls’ lineup in his last game and responded with 22.8 FanDuel points over 18.2 minutes. His playing time should only increase as he gets further removed from his injury, and his $3,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Photo credit: Ron Hoskins-NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Bulls G Coby White (0)
