The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a two-game slate, starting at 9 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Mike Conley was a major disappointment in his first year with the Utah Jazz, but he’s been playing much better this season. He’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute, which is an excellent mark considering his salary. He’s very reasonably priced at $6,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Conley also owns one of the best individual matchups at the position. The Pelicans have struggled mightily against point guards this season, giving Conley an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.21. Finally, Joe Ingles is also listed as questionable and his absence would give Conley a slight bump. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in four games without Ingles this season.
Value
Eric Bledsoe and Lonzo Ball both stand out as excellent values on FanDuel. Both players are priced at just $5,500, with both owning a Bargain Rating of at least 67 percent.
Bledsoe is the safer option of the two guards. He’s played in each of the past two games, coming off 30.7 FanDuel points in his last outing. He’s also averaged slightly more fantasy points per minute than Ball this season. Ball is expected to return to the lineup against the Jazz – he’s currently listed as probable – but could command lower ownership in his first game back. That might make him the preferred option for tournaments.
Fast Break
George Hill has been a decent source of recent fantasy value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, with the lone exception coming in a game where he played a season-high 32.9 minutes. That bodes well for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute, and is currently projected for 26.6 minutes in our NBA Models. That gives him a good chance to return value at just $4,900.
Jamal Murray is a boom-or-bust fantasy option, coming off back-to-back games with at least 40.25 DraftKings points. The Nuggets’ implied team total of 115.0 is the top mark on the slate, so this could be a good opportunity to target him. He’s an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a monster performance in his last outing. He finished with 33 points, 10 assists and five rebounds, resulting in 56.0 FanDuel points. Overall, it was his fourth game with at least 47.5 FanDuel points in his last six appearances. His average of 1.15 FanDuel points per minute is the top mark at the position, and his nine Pro Trends are tied for the most as well.
Value
Michael Porter Jr. remains out of the lineup for the Nuggets, which means P.J. Dozier should see another increased workload. He’s logged at least 27.2 minutes in two of his past three games, scoring at least 20.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Dozier has increased his production to 0.78 DraftKings points per minute in nine games with MPJ out of the lineup, which makes him one of the better values plays on the slate at just $3,900.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell can definitely challenge SGA for the top spot at the shooting guard position. He hasn’t been as productive on a per-minute basis, but he does have a significantly better matchup. Mitchell leads all SGs with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.4 on FanDuel, and Utah’s implied team total of 111.5 points ranks second on the slate.
Sticking with the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson would become a very appealing option if Ingles is ruled out. He’s seen a massive boost in value in games without Ingles this season, averaging 30.2 minutes and 33.82 FanDuel points in four contests.
Small Forward
Stud
Brandon Ingram is priced in his own tier at small forward. He’s priced at $8,400 on FanDuel, which makes him at least $2,300 more expensive than every other player. That said, he still stands out as one of the best pure values on FanDuel, leading the position with a Bargain Rating of 70 percent.
However, Ingram has not been able to live up to his price tag recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, coming off just 28.1 FanDuel points in his last outing. Ingram also derives the majority of his fantasy value from scoring, and the Pelicans are currently implied for just 105.5 points. That makes him a bit riskier than usual, and Ingram has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.91 with a comparable salary and implied team total (per the Trends tool).
Value
Kenrich Williams hasn’t carried a ton of fantasy value this season, but he has emerged is a viable fantasy target recently. He’s scored at least 27.0 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he played a season-high 27.3 minutes in his last contest. Williams has averaged 0.81 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can take advantage of a larger workload.
Fast Break
Bojan Bogdanovic is another member of the Jazz who would benefit from Ingles’ absence. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.0% in games without Ingles this season, which is the second-largest increase on the team. He’s struggled a bit with his shot this season – he’s shooting just 39.1% from the field – so he’s a positive regression candidate moving forward.
Will Barton’s playing time has been all over the place this season. He’s played as many as 35.7 minutes or as few as 25.6 over his past four games, which gives him a wide range of outcomes. That said, he’s been productive when on the court, averaging 0.84 DraftKings points per minute.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson has been solid this season, averaging 37.17 DraftKings points per game, but that still feels somewhat disappointing. He was a dominant force on a per-minute basis as a rookie, averaging 1.25 DraftKings points per minute, but that figure has dropped to just 1.15 this year. That’s not all that surprising – a bump in minutes can lead to a decline in efficiency – but it doesn’t appear that his game has made much of a leap in his second year.
Williamson is priced at $7,900 for today’s matchup against the Jazz, which could make him a bit too expensive. Not only are the Jazz a brutal matchup – Williamson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.76 – but Williamson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.91 with a comparable salary. There aren’t a ton of studs to consider today, but we can do better than Williamson.
Value
Isaiah Roby is going to be one of the most popular value options on the slate. He’s priced at just $4,100 on DraftKings, and he should draw another start with Al Horford out of the lineup. Roby has scored at least 24.0 DraftKings in each of his three previous starts, and he’s displayed a ceiling of 33.75 DraftKings points. Overall, Roby has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, so it’s not surprising that he’s succeeded with additional playing time.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Porter Jr.’s absence. No one on the Nuggets has seen a larger bump in usage with MPJ off the court, resulting in an average of 0.91 DraftKings points per minute. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently, but he doesn’t need to at just $4,500.
Mike Muscala is coming off a season-high 27.1 minutes in his last game, which makes him an interesting option at $4,000 on FanDuel. He’s projected for 22.7 minutes on today’s slate, historically averaging a Plus/Minus of +1.86 with a comparable salary and minute projection.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic should command massive ownership on today’s slate. The Nuggets stand out as the top team target given their slate-high implied team total, and Jokic has been arguably the best player in fantasy this season. He’s averaged 1.75 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.48 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s also scored at least 64.5 DraftKings points in three straight games.
Jokic should be able to do plenty of damage in this matchup. The Thunder rank 27th in team rebound rate and 28th in points in the paint allowed per game, so they have predictably struggled against the center position in fantasy. Jokic leads all centers with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $11,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Paying up for Jokic seems like the logical decision at center, but Steven Adams is an interesting pivot on FanDuel. He leads the position in both Bargain Rating and Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel, averaging a solid 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season. Adams is coming off 34.0 FanDuel points in his last game, so he’s a nice option at just $5,800.
Fast Break
With most of the attention focused on Jokic, Rudy Gobert could fly a bit under the radar. That said, playing both together on DraftKings is definitely a viable strategy. Gobert’s $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, which makes him one of the best pure values on the slate. He’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute this season, which trails only Jokic among today’s players.
