The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
You’ll want to monitor the injury report closely tonight and set your lineup as close to tip as possible. The two highest profile names on the slate, Luka Doncic and Karl-Anthony Towns, are both questionable with sprains. Other key names like Marcus Morris and Danilo Gallinari are also questionable, and their absence could open up a lot of scoring and usage. All those injuries mean a ton of bargain value today, so check our app later for up-to-the-minute updates and projections!
Point Guard
Studs
Luka Doncic has missed three games with that sprained ankle, but will return tonight — though it would be a surprise if he has a full load. Doncic costs $11,800 in DraftKings, so he’s a straight up avoid there at -1.28 Projected Plus/Minus. The model is much kinder at FanDuel, where Luka’s $10,500 salary gives him a 99% Bargain Rating.
Our model gives him a +7.48 Projected Plus/Minus there, but it also expects him to play 33.4 minutes at 38.9% usage, basically a full load. Doncic is a potential night winner, especially on a lighter overall slate, so if he does look like a go, he could be a winning late pivot at FanDuel.
If Doncic is out, Damian Lillard is the top stud on the board. Dame gets the nightcap on TNT against the Jazz, but Utah’s defense has been more neutral lately than difficult.
Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Damian Lillard
Lillard has fallen short of expectations in 54% of his games this month after a huge start to the season. Lillard’s 12 Pro Trends are most among point guards today, and he’s a solid play at both sites but an even better option at DraftKings, with a +3.13 Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
There’s a lot of value at point guard today, but the Point God may lead the way. Chris Paul took a minute to settle in with OKC, but suddenly the Thunder have the longest winning streak in the West and CP has exceeded expectations in 61% of his games over the past month by an average of +3.25 fantasy points.
A visit from the Grizzlies should only help his numbers with a +3.34 Opponent Plus/Minus and a +4.6 Pace Differential. CP3 looks a great play at both sites but a slam dunk at FanDuel with a +6.68 Projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Spencer Dinwiddie continues to be a great option with Kyrie Irving sidelined. Dinwiddie is posting All-Star numbers with Kyrie out, at 26.1 points and 7.2 assists per game in 18 outings. The Nets always get up for a game against the Knicks, and Dinwiddie is still a huge bargain at +6.18 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
It feels like Dejounte Murray has been a good mid-priced option all season, and that should continue against Dallas, especially if Murray doesn’t need to use all his energy guarding Doncic. Murray has exceeded expectations in seven straight games, adding double-digit scoring to his usual rebounding and steals in all but one of those games.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Bradley Beal has exceeded expectations in six straight, averaging 31.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists in those games with at least 45 fantasy points in every one of them. Detroit’s defense has not measured up this year, so this is actually a positive matchup for Beal, and he has 12 Pro Trends in his favor. Beal’s $9,600 FanDuel salary implies just under 44 points, and we know he’s bested that number in six straight games. He’s got a +4.9 Projected Plus/Minus there and looks like a strong option on a light stud slate.
Value
Buddy Hield has gone cold with only 9.8 points per game over his last four, but a visit from Minnesota could right the ship. The Wolves offer a positive matchup and an excellent +6.1 pace differential, so Buddy should get his shots up, and his salary is now a bargain after his recent poor play. He’s over +5.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard Buddy Hield (24).
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell has seen an increase in usage and assist rate with Mike Conley sidelined, and that should continue in a positive matchup against the Blazers. Mitchell has a whopping 14 Pro Trends at FanDuel, where he also has a 91% Bargain Rating and a +6.93 Projected Plus/Minus. He looks like the real stud play there, and he only costs $7,600.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been one of this season’s breakout players, and he should be a strong play for many of the same reasons as Chris Paul in a plus matchup against the Grizzlies. SGA has scored over 43 fantasy points in three straight, averaging 28 points a game in that stretch with a monster +15.9 per game above expectations in that span.
Small Forward
Studs
It’s the day after Christmas 2019, 40% of the NBA is playing tonight, and Carmelo Anthony is the highest priced small forward on the board. How did we get here?! Melo has a tough matchup against the Jazz, who have a slew of wings to throw at him, but he’s still averaging 16.4 points and 6.4 rebounds in a bounce back season.
Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Trail Blazers forward Carmelo Anthony (00).
Melo is over +2.3 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and still comes at a bargain price — though you might be better playing one of his opponents.
Value
Our model loves Jazz wings tonight, and sorry, but Melo is one of the reasons why. Utah gets a +2.1 Pace Differential in this plus matchup, and Joe Ingles looks especially tasty. Ingles is handling the ball a lot more with Conley out and everyone in Utah back in a more familiar role.
He’s exceeded expectations in seven of his last eight, averaging 16.0 points and 5.9 dimes in that stretch with an average +10.6 above expectations. He’s an incredible value at $5,300 on FanDuel, giving him a +9.64 Projected Plus/Minus right in line with his recent value.
Fast Break
If you’re not a Jingles fan, maybe you prefer his teammate, Bojan Bogdanovic. With Bojan, it’s all about buckets, and he should get plenty of clean looks against Portland. Bogdanovic has a 98% Bargain Rating at FanDuel with a +8.37 Projected Plus/Minus. Both of these guys are good plays, and don’t be afraid to play them together at FanDuel.
Taurean Prince is another bucket getter, and there should be points to be had against the Knicks. Prince has exceeded expectations in 61% of his games this month, benefiting from Kyrie Irving’s absence leading to more shots. Prince is an especially strong FanDuel option at 97% Bargain Rating and +7.4 Projected Plus/Minus.
Power Forward
Studs
Kristaps Porzingis has been hot, finally in a more familiar role as lead dog with Doncic sidelined. KP has exceeded expectations in six straight, with at least 19 points in each and over 50 fantasy points four times. The Spurs are a positive matchup now, and Porzingis’s +4.91 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings is best at the position. Be careful, though. If Doncic does play, those KP usage numbers should drop some and could hurt his potential value.
Value
Julius Randle looks like a solid mid-priced power forward option in a slate without a lot of big plays at the position. Randle hasn’t lived up to billing in New York but has gotten some traction lately, exceeding expectations in five of his last seven.
Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30).
He’s coming off a Knicks career best 35-point game, and he’ll benefit from Marcus Morris’s absence if he remains sidelined. Randle is over +2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Fast Break
Royce O’Neale is another Utah wing option, and at a position without a ton of value tonight. O’Neale is never going to put up a huge night as a 3-and-D role player, but DFS is all about maximizing your dollars, and he looks like a great dirt cheap option tonight, especially at FanDuel where his $4,100 salary and power forward eligibility make him a great lineup filler at +5.54 Projected Plus/Minus.
Our model has its eye on Marvin Bagley, even though he’s barely gotten going yet this season. Bagley benefits from a +6.1 pace differential and little opposition in his way in Minnesota, so this could be a chance for a breakout against a reeling Wolves team.
Center
Studs
There’s some serious value to be had at center tonight, but it probably won’t come from Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns is questionable with a sprained knee and probably won’t be a full go even if he does play. Our models are fading Towns hard with a significantly negative Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, especially with some awesome center options available.
Andre Drummond is one of those awesome options. Drummond is in a smash spot against the Wizards, with a +4.24 Opponent Plus/Minus and a +4.8 Pace Differential. The Wiz have bled points to opposing centers all year, and Drummond is going to have a chance at a monster rebounding night.
Drummond has a +8.59 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings, and if that’s not enough for you, he has an absurd +14.09 over at FanDuel. This could be one of those 20/20 games for Drummond, and your lineup should be seeing 20/20 if he’s in it.
Value
Hassan Whiteside looks like an awesome option as well and would be one of the best plays of the day in a slate without Andre Drummond playing Superman.
Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Trail Blazers center Hassan Whiteside (21).
Whiteside is over +6.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, even in a difficult matchup against Rudy Gobert and Utah. He’s been on fire, exceeding expectations in nine of 10 games with a double-double in every one of them and 3.9 blocks per game in that stretch.
Fast Break
Whiteside’s opponent, Rudy Gobert, is another excellent play. Gobert benefits from, well, playing Whiteside. Portland offers a massive +6.05 Opponent Plus/Minus, and Gobert has also been hot, exceeding expectations in eight straight. He’s another Utah player benefiting from Conley’s absence and a more familiar role. You’re going to want some Jazz players in your lineup tonight, and don’t be afraid to play multiple centers, too. Gobert has a +8.29 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
If you can’t afford a high-end center option — and you really should find the cash — then Steven Adams looks like a great middle option. Adams gets a +4.6 pace differential and a +2.34 Opponent Plus/Minus against Memphis and should find some easy buckets. He has a 91% Bargain Rating at FanDuel along with a +6.89 Projected Plus/Minus, so he could be an interesting pivot there.
