The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Tonight is a tale of two slates. The six games can be divided neatly into two groups of three. Lakers-Pacers, Kings-Hornets, and Magic-Jazz all have a line at 210 points or lower, while Hawks-Knicks, Nets-Pelicans, and Suns-Clippers are all above 223 points.
That’s an extra 15 or 20 points available in those three games, along with extra pace, rebounds, assists, and more, and you would be wise to stack players in those games. That will leave you with some interesting decisions, since most of tonight’s studs play in the lower scoring games.
Point Guard
Studs
Trae Young is the big point guard name on the board tonight, and he’s sure to be popular against the Knicks. New York is indeed a plus matchup at +1.65 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings. The Hawks continue to lose a ton of games, and Young continues to put up plenty of fantasy points regardless.
He’s put up at least 39 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12, so that gives him a pretty nice floor along with tournament-winning upside in a plus matchup. Young has nine Pro Trends and is a nice enough stud option with positive but below +2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Value
Spencer Dinwiddie has been killing it in the absence of Kyrie Irving, and he looks primed for another big game in a plus matchup against the Pelicans’ bottom-three defense.
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brooklyn Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie (8).
Dinwiddie is averaging 23.9 points and 7.4 assists in 15 games without Kyrie, exceeding fantasy expectations in 10 of them with an average of 41 points a game at FanDuel. He has a huge +5.69 Projected Plus/Minus there and a monster +8.25 at DraftKings thanks to a bargain $7,500. He looks like a great semi-stud to build around tonight.
Fast Break
It’s Christmastime, so maybe you’d like an Elf — Elfrid Payton, that is. Payton is healthy again and has played over 25 minutes in three straight for the Knicks, exceeding expectations in each. He’s a great mid-priced option at over +4.5 Projected Plus/Minus on both sites as his salary works its way back from his time away.
Lonzo Ball remains a popular option in our models. Ball hasn’t scored double-digit points in any of his last five games, but he fills up the box score and scored 0.91 fantasy points per minute. We project Ball at 32 minutes, his highest in two weeks and that helps him to a Projected Plus/Minus over +3.9 at both sites, including a whopping +8.21 at his bargain $5,000 DraftKings salary. Ball is helped by the best point guard Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Studs
There are a handful of semi-stud shooting guard options. Donovan Mitchell has the top salary, but may not be a top play. He plays the Magic in what looks like a slow, defensive battle, and he has a negative Opponent Plus/Minus and pace differential. Mitchell has come up short of expectations in six of his last 10 games as his salary has risen. He’s a potential contrarian play at DraftKings but a name to avoid at FanDuel, where his $8,700 salary gives him a -2.07 Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Jrue Holiday has been on fire, exceeding expectations in five straight games by a total of 43.1 fantasy points, an average +8.62 Plus/Minus per outing. Holiday has an excellent matchup against a Nets team with a +2.11 Opponent Plus/Minus, so he should keep the good times rolling. Holiday is not really a pure scorer, but he’s scored at least 20 points in 10 of his last 14. There’s not a monster ceiling, but with a Projected Plus/Minus over +1.75 at both site, he should bring positive value.
Fast Break
Josh Hart obviously gets that same matchup boost as Holiday. You might think Hart is a contrarian play to Holiday, but Hart too has seen an uptick over the past four games, exceeding expectations in each and averaging over 26 fantasy points a game. That’s far above his salary-implied points and gives him better than +2.9 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. Keep an eye on the Pelicans injury report. J.J. Redick is questionable, and his absence leaves more scoring for Holiday and Hart.
It’s been an up-and-down rookie season for RJ Barrett. In the last 10 games alone, Barrett has three games of 10 or fewer fantasy points but five more at over 29, including 22 points and 10 boards against the Warriors last week. That inconsistency has left Barrett at a bargain price in a plus matchup against the Hawks, who offer a +2.3 Opponent Plus/Minus.
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Knicks forward RJ Barrett (9).
Barrett looks a good play at FanDuel but a near must-start at DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary is so low I had to triple-check to make sure I wasn’t seeing it wrong. Barrett has a +9.63 Projected Plus/Minus there, one of the highest of the season to date.
Small Forward
Studs
LeBron James will always be a popular fantasy option, but our models are fading him tonight. Keep an eye on the Lakers injury report. Both Anthony Davis and Kyle Kuzma are question marks, which could leave James with a heavier scoring load, but it might also allow the Pacers to focus on him and limit some of LeBron’s assist opportunities.
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeBron James
LeBron is going to post numbers. He always does. But DFS is about maximizing your dollars, and James has such a monster salary that he has to get to 50 or 55 fantasy points to even return neutral value. LeBron has exceeded that range only once in his last 13 games, so it’s hard for him to return extra value. Our models rate James below -2.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. This could be an opportunity for you to gain ground on a lot of opponents who will just slot LeBron right into that lineup.
LeBron’s LA counterpart, Paul George, is a stronger stud option. Again, check the injury report. The Clippers could be missing Lou Williams, Patrick Beverley, and/or JaMychal Green, and that could mean more minutes and scoring upside for PG. George has 11 Pro Trends at DraftKings and a 78% Bargain Rating with a +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus, so he’s a much stronger play there.
Value
Like any rookie, De’Andre Hunter has been up and down, but he’s scored at least 18 points in six of his last 13 games, and his assist and rebound numbers are starting to climb upward too. Hunter is playing big minutes and will get a familiar matchup against RJ Barrett, who he was successful against last year. Hunter has a +3.03 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel and a +6.43 at DraftKings. He looks like an excellent bargain play if you’re paying up at other positions.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince benefits from a plus matchup against the Pelicans, who offer a +2.46 Opponent Plus/Minus and a positive pace differential. He’s another player scoring more with Kyrie Irving out, and he’s exceeded expectations in eight of his last 11 games. He’s an even stronger play at DraftKings at +4.3 Projected Plus/Minus.
If you’re looking for a better FanDuel option, Kelly Oubre may be your guy. The Suns could be without Devin Booker while it’s Deandre Ayton’s first night back, so it’s anyone’s guess how the shots and scoring will sort out. Oubre will have his hands full defensively against the star Clipper wings, but our models like him at +3.46 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis is questionable with a sprained ankle. He played through it in the closing minutes against the Hawks, but be sure to check injury reports. You need Davis to be a full go at his salary, because a swing and miss at that price crushes your whole lineup. Davis has a history of these niggling injuries knocking him out mid-game, so be careful.
That said, our models like him as a strong FanDuel option if he looks fit. Even in a slight negative matchup and pace differential, Brow has 14 Pro Trends against the Pacers along with a +4.8 Projected Plus/Minus. The good news is that the game is in Indiana with an earlier tip time, so you should know about Brow’s status before setting your lineup.
Kawhi Leonard is just one more stud our models are fading today. Leonard has really been an unreliable fantasy player of late. He’s been under expectations in nine of the last 13 games he’s played, and that’s even with his usual load management in between. That knee really seems to be limiting him some, both in play and in his minutes load.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2).
Leonard has a negative Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, even with so many Clippers injuries around him.
Value
Julius Randle benefits from a +5.1 pace differential against Atlanta, a plus matchup. Randle has 10 Pro Trends in his favor and projects at 27% usage. He should have a big role against a Hawks team with no real matchup for him. Randle is an especially good play at DraftKings, where he has a +4.46 Projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis has been so good this season, averaging 17.7 points and 13.5 rebounds each game. Sabonis will have his hands full, assuming Anthony Davis goes, but he matches Brow’s 14 Pro Trends and comes in at over +2.8 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. Sabonis has exceeded expectations in 72% of his games this season, consistently producing good value in fantasy lineups.
Brooklyn’s Jarrett Allen looks like a strong play, whatever position he’s eligible at (power forward at FanDuel, center at DraftKings). Allen has a great matchup against the Pelicans, especially while Derrick Favors is still limited. Allen has exceeded expectations in 64% of his games this month and had recorded double-digit rebounds in 10 straight games until his last time out. He’s an excellent mid-tier option at over +4.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Center
Studs
Utah’s Rudy Gobert is the top center on a light slate at the position. Gobert and the entire Utah offense struggled to start the season, but the Stifle Tower has been hot lately, exceeding expectations in 68% of his starts this month. Gobert has nine straight double-doubles.
Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rudy Gobert
He’s hurt by a negative Opponent Plus/Minus and pace differential but should fare well enough against a still-recovering Nik Vucevic. At over +2 Projected Plus/Minus and 10 Pro Trends, he’s a rare safe, high-floor option from those lower scoring games.
Value
With Derrick Favors still on his way back, Jaxson Hayes remains a strong option. He should match up nicely against Jarrett Allen, and the Nets have an awful +4.51 Opponent Plus/Minus. Hayes has exceeded expectations in 59% of his games this last month, filling in nicely with the Pelicans’ other big men out. He leads all centers in Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, including a dominant +7.33 at DraftKings.
Fast Break
Alex Len has been really good the last two weeks, exceeding expectations in six of seven games with a giant +10.1 per game in that stretch. His salary remains low, and in a good matchup against the Knicks, Len looks like a great bargain play with at least +4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
We don’t normally comment on players to avoid, but you should know our models hate Deandre Ayton tonight, no matter how excited you are to play him coming off the suspension.
We’re projecting Ayton at only 16 minutes, and that would make it nearly impossible for him to hit his implied 35 fantasy points. Ayton has a nice matchup against the Clippers and could potentially see a huge load if Devin Booker sits, but our models rate him below -15 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, so play at your own risk.
