The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Is Luka Doncic finally turning back from a basketball god into an ordinary superhuman? Doncic is “down” to 25.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 7.7 assists over the past three games. That’s basically LeBron’s career line, so it’s not exactly bad, but it’s a far cry from his previous 10-game barrage of 33.1 points, 10.3 boards, and 9.7 dimes.
DFS is all about margins. For those 10 games, Luka was a sure thing lineup selection. Over the past three games, he’s been a disappointment, coming up well short of expectations. Doncic’s salary is so high that you need at least 55 fantasy points to match expectations. Luckily he has a plus matchup against the Pistons, and it’s a pretty light slate.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Mavericks forward Luka Doncic (77).
Many owners may fade Luka’s high salary with him disappointing lately, but that could present an opportunity for savvy players. Doncic has a +2.19 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings and could be one of the better plays on the slate. Can a player “bounce back” from a 25/7/7 stretch?
Value
Another reason Doncic is a good play is that none of the other point guard options are particularly exciting. Your top value today might be Jamal Murray. Murray is questionable with something called a right trunk contusion, but an elephant never forgets, and Murray told followers on social media he would be playing tonight.
Murray comes at a discounted $6,500 at DraftKings and is in a great spot against the Blazers, a +3.22 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s a great option there at +1.38 Projected Plus/Minus and could be a low ownership play since he’s in the late game.
Fast Break
Perhaps you prefer another Murray, namely Dejounte Murray. He is typically more of a defender and could have a chance to pile up steals tonight against Cleveland’s young guards. Murray has eight steals the last three games and has a slightly positive Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. He’s a cash play.
Ben Simmons has 12 Pro Trends at Draft Kings and comes in at +1.11 Projected Plus/Minus, despite a difficult matchup against the Celtics. Simmons has exceeded expectations in 65% of his games at DK this year, so he’s often a good play.
Shooting Guard
Studs
DeMar DeRozan has been a big time value all season long at DraftKings, and that trend looks set to continue tonight. DeRozan has exceeded DraftKings expectations in 68% of his games this season and he’s been even better lately, with that number up to 90% over his last 10 games and a +5.08 Plus/Minus.
Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan should have a green light and little resistance against the Cavaliers, and at $7,300, he only has to hit 35 implied points to be a value. Our model projects him over 38 with a ceiling near 55, making him one of the better plays on the slate at DraftKings. He’s less of a bargain at FanDuel but still a +1.28 Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
CJ McCollum could be an interesting pivot in what looks like a tricky matchup against Gary Harris that could see many avoid 3J. A trip to Denver means a negative Opponent Plus/Minus and a big down tick in tempo, but McCollum is up to 1.13 fantasy points per minute over the past month and offers a safe play with nice tournament upside. He comes in at over +1.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson looks like a top bargain play Thursday night on FanDuel. Richardson is back after six games away and did almost nothing in 19 minutes in his return; his salary plummeted as a result. At $4,400 on FanDuel, he has a 97% Bargain Rating and a robust +2.46 Projected Plus/Minus, and his value can really only go up from here.
You know it’s a lean night if we’re recommending Jordan Clarkson. Clarkson is averaging almost 14 points a game off the bench and, remember, the Spurs are a plus matchup now at +1.21 Opponent Plus/Minus. Clarkson is over +1.3 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and can always have a big game if he has on his scoring boots.
Small Forward
Studs
Tobias Harris is tonight’s most expensive small forward, and he continues to do his thing. Harris has settled into a groove, averaging 19.2 points and 7.0 rebounds for the Sixers. He has exceeded expectations in 60% of his games this season at FanDuel and over 72% at DraftKings, making him a nice steady option, albeit without the usual stud upside (or price tag).
Harris has been especially good over the past five games, averaging 24.0 points and exceeding fantasy expectations in four of them. He’s at +1.02 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel and +2.21 at DraftKings and looks like a very strong, safe option in a night without many of those.
Value
Cavs rookie Kevin Porter Jr. has exceeded expectations in five straight games, averaging 12.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.6 steals in in 24.3 minutes during that stretch.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kevin Porter Jr. (4).
KPJ is still at $4,000 or lower on both sites despite his newfound role, giving him an implied fantasy score of around 15 or 16 points. Porter has a very positive matchup against the Spurs. He has the top Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at DraftKings at +4.01.
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr. is quietly having a nice season hitting open jumpers for Dallas. He’s reliant on scoring for his fantasy output, but has exceeded expectations in 74% of his games over the past month. THJ has a +3.11 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel and looks like a nice play with upside at both sites.
Speaking of having a nice season, that Jaylen Brown extension isn’t looking so questionable anymore. Brown has busted out with 19.9 points and 7.0 rebounds a game, becoming an integral part of Boston’s attack. Brown has exceeded expectations in five straight games. He has a +2.06 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel along with 10 Pro Trends.
Power Forward
Studs
LaMarcus Aldridge is the most expensive power forward option at FanDuel tonight. LMA has a juicy matchup against a Cavs defense offering a +1.84 Opponent Plus/Minus. Aldridge has exceeded expectations in seven of his past 10 games and looks like a solid play at FanDuel but a much better one at DraftKings, where his $7,000 salary gives him an 88% Bargain Rating and an excellent +3.36 Projected Plus/Minus.
Jayson Tatum is the most expensive PF over at DraftKings by $100. Despite the price tag, Tatum has exceeded expectations there in 62% of his games this season. Tatum has been a low ownership option of late and could be an interesting tournament play, coming in at +2.52 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings. Neither of these two is even +1 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel, though.
Value
It looks like the Celtics will be short Robert Williams, and that should favor Daniel Theis. We project Theis at 25.6 minutes, and he averages almost a full fantasy point per minute. Theis’ bargain salary gives him an implied point total under 18, so you can do the pretty easy math on that one. Theis is one of the night’s top bargain plays with over +3.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Fast Break
Other than Theis, Blake Griffin is the only other power forward option over +1 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel. It’s been a nightmare season for Blake. He’s underachieved expectations in a whopping 83% of his games and just doesn’t look healthy, averaging only 18.2 points and under five rebounds a game.
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Detroit Pistons forward Blake Griffin (23).
It’s anyone’s guess at this point whether Griffin will ever break out, but his underperformance has given him quite the bargain salary, along with a +3.29 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings.
Does tonight count as an Al Horford revenge game? Horford doesn’t exactly seem like the revenge type, and he’ll probably get a pretty warm welcome back in Boston. Horford has an 85% Bargain Rating at DraftKings and a huge +3.53 Projected Plus/Minus, so if you like him to show up against his old teammates, that’s the site to play him at.
Center
Studs
Andre Drummond has been a fantasy monster this season, but he has a difficult fantasy matchup against Dallas, who offer a -1.11 Opponent Plus/Minus. Still Drummond has 12 Pro Trends to his name and had racked up 14-plus rebounds in 11 straight games until his last time out. Drummond is an okay play among few options at FanDuel but a much better option at DraftKings, where he has an 85% Bargain Rating and a +3.16 Projected Plus/Minus.
You’re probably salivating over a Joel Embiid matchup against the Celtics and their lack of a true big man, but the truth is that Boston has offered a brutal -3.4 Opponent Plus/Minus to opposing centers this season at FanDuel. That makes Embiid a mostly neutral play there, though his slightly more palatable salary at DraftKings gives him a +1.7 Projected Plus/Minus there.
Value
Is this finally the night that Nikola Jokic gets back on track? You might remember Jokic from last year’s playoffs — the Blazers certainly do. Jokic averaged 27.1 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 7.7 assists in that series.
His numbers are a far cry from that this fall, but Portland still has no shot against opposing centers. The Blazers offer a whopping +6.05 Opponent Plus/Minus there, and that plus a bargain salary give Jokic a +2.13 Projected Plus/Minus. He looks like the top center play at FanDuel tonight and could finally have that breakout game.
Fast Break
If you’re out totally on the Jokic experience, you might prefer to pivot to his opponent, Hassan Whiteside. Denver offers a +4.44 Opponent Plus/Minus of their own to opposing centers, but our models fear a down game from Whiteside and he could get into foul trouble against Jokic. If you think he wins the matchup instead, Whiteside offers intriguing pivot upside.
Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Trail Blazers center Hassan Whiteside (21).
If you’re looking for a more moderate option, Tristan Thompson is your guy. Thompson has been playing big minutes and has exceeded expectations in 73% of his games this season. He doesn’t have the ceiling of the other center options here but looks like a solid play if you’re spending elsewhere.
