The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Monday’s slate is loaded with high-priced point guards, but Damian Lillard stands out. He’s been extremely reliable recently, scoring at least 51.75 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games, and he should continue to benefit from the absences of C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. Not only has Lillard seen an expanded usage rate with those players out of the lineup, but he’s also playing massive minutes. He’s currently projected for 37.0 minutes in our NBA Models after playing 42.3 minutes vs. the Lakers in his last game.
Lillard doesn’t own the best individual matchup vs. the Hornets – it results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.12 on DraftKings – but the Blazers’ implied team total of 119.25 ranks third on the slate.
Value
Michael Carter-Williams has posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, but that wasn’t exactly his fault. Both games turned into blowouts, so MCW played reduced minutes in both contests.
That makes him a nice buy-low option vs. the Mavericks. It’s an excellent matchup, and MCW’s $4,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he should return to his usual workload if today’s game stays competitive.
Fast Break
LaMelo Ball is another strong option on FanDuel. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, and his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. We’re still waiting on the Hornets’ injury report, but it’s possible that Devonte’ Graham, Gordon Hayward, and Cody Zeller are all out of the lineup once again. Ball will carry a massive workload if that’s the case, and he finished with 46.8 FanDuel points with all three players out of the lineup yesterday.
The only time Luka Doncic isn’t a viable option in DFS is when the Mavs aren’t playing. His production has been down a bit recently, scoring 49.7 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, which has caused his salary to dip to just $10,600. That’s a very fair price tag for Doncic, who has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.58 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden still has shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, but he is only eligible at point guard on DraftKings. Thanks a lot, Kyrie Irving. Harden is another player who has seen his price come down recently, and his $10,700 price tag on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he’s increased his production to 1.45 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. This price may be too expensive when Kevin Durant officially returns to the lineup, but Harden should continue to provide excellent value until that happens.
Value
John Wall is not expected to play on the second leg of a back-to-back, which means Eric Gordon should see a nice boost in value tonight vs. the Cavaliers. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.2% with Wall, Harden, Christian Wood, and DeMarcus Cousins off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.18 DraftKings points per minute. The Cavaliers are also a strong matchup, ranking just 24th in defensive efficiency. He’s a viable option across the industry, but he’s particularly appealing on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%.
That said, Gordon was added to the Rockets’ injury report as questionable, so make sure to monitor his status using the Labs Insiders tool.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Rockets, Victor Oladipo should also see a boost in production vs. the Cavs. Oladipo sat out yesterday, but he finished with 45.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. He’s only played 36 minutes this season with Wall, Cousins, and Wood off the court, but he leads the team with a usage rate of 33.1% in that situation.
Seth Curry could be another nice source of value on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.46 over his past 10 games. He’s currently projected for 32.8 minutes in our NBA Models, but that number could increase if either Tobias Harris or Joel Embiid is unable to suit up. Both players are currently questionable, so make sure to monitor their statuses using the Labs Insiders tool.
Small Forward
Stud
Brandon Ingram’s salary continues to decrease on FanDuel. He’s down to just $7,800 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Jazz, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 82%. The Jazz are a brutal matchup – they rank second in the league in defensive efficiency – but Ingram still leads the position with 13 Pro Trends. He could be an interesting option to pay up for in guaranteed prize pools since he has the highest ceiling projection at the position and should garner minimal ownership.
Value
Royce O’Neale has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games on DraftKings, and he’s very affordable given the number of minutes he’s been playing recently. He’s priced at just $4,800 on DraftKings and is projected for 33.8 minutes, and players with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.75.
Fast Break
Danuel House was limited to just 23.5 minutes yesterday vs. the Grizzlies, but the Rockets lost that game by a whopping 49 points. They should hopefully be more competitive vs. the Cavaliers – they’re currently listed as 2.5-point favorites – which means House should return to his normal workload. He’s started each of the past six games for the Rockets, and he’s projected for 33.4 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him way too cheap at $4,500 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson is on the rise. He was named to the All-Star team this season, and he’s been a fantasy monster recently. He’s operating more as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, which has been massive for his fantasy stock. Not only does it allow him to do what he does best – get to the rim with a full head of steam – but he’s also picked up his production as a distributor. He’s logged at least four assists in eight of his past nine games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in eight of his past nine contests.
The Jazz have been excellent against power forwards this season, but Williamson still leads the position in Pro Trends. He’s too cheap across the industry given his new role in the Pelicans’ offense.
Value
Robert Covington has posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games on FanDuel, which has caused his price to drop from $7,200 to just $5,800. That’s a massive price decrease over such a short time frame. Covington has been excellent on a per-minute basis, averaging 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so there’s no reason he can’t bounce-back tonight vs. the Hornets.
Fast Break
Chuma Okeke is someone to keep your eye on for the Magic moving forward. He was their first-round pick in the 2019 draft, but he missed all of last season due to an injury. He’s been solid in limited playing time this year, and he could be someone the Magic want to take an extended look at over the second half. He’s a reasonable option at $3,200 on DraftKings.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been coming off the bench since re-joining the Spurs rotation, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past two games. That move could actually be a positive for his fantasy stock since he can focus as the offensive focal point of the bench units. He posted a usage rate of 28.0% in his last contest, which was his fourth-highest mark of the season.
Center
Stud
Center and point guard are easily the two most top-heavy positions on today’s slate. Nikola Jokic stands out at center, and it’s impossible to understate how good he’s been recently. He’s coming off 61.25 DraftKings points in just 30.1 minutes in his last outing, and he’s posted an 84% Consistency Rating over the past month. He’s also averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame, which gives him one of the safest floors in fantasy at the moment.
Jokic should also continue to benefit from the Nuggets’ current injury situation. Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green, Gary Harris, and R.J. Hampton are all out of the lineup, and Jokic has routinely eclipsed 36.5 minutes with the team shorthanded recently.
Value
Justin Patton has gotten the opportunity to play some minutes for the Rockets recently. He’s coming off 26.1 minutes in his last game, and he’s currently projected for 23.2 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him a viable punt play at a near-minimum salary across the industry. Patton hasn’t crushed on a per-minute basis this season, but his average of 0.83 FanDuel points per minute is good enough to get the job done.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $9,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends, and his matchup vs. the Mavericks results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.86.
Jarrett Allen failed to return value in his last game, but that is to be expected against Joel Embiid. He has a much softer matchup today vs. the Rockets, and Allen has been nothing short of a fantasy monster recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.72 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
