The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a five-game slate, starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving has gotten off to an excellent start in his second season with the Nets, averaging 46.6 DraftKings points per game through his first six contests. He was particularly effective in his last appearance, finishing with 59.25 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards.
He’s in a tough spot Tuesday against the Jazz, but Irving will have the benefit of playing without Kevin Durant. Irving’s teammate, who has been ruled out due to health and COVID-19 safety protocols, is expected to miss roughly a full week of action. Irving has increased his usage rate by +3.8% with Durant off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.70 DKFP per minute. He has a chance to be an absolute monster if he keeps up that level of production over the course of a full game without Durant.
Value
Lou Williams has not had the best start to his season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.81 on FanDuel through his first seven games. That’s caused his price to drop all the way to $4,000, which makes him an appealing buy-low candidate. Williams has historically been priced at a comparable salary in 28 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.81 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Jamal Murray should be one of the primary beneficiaries of Michael Porter Jr. being out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.0% with MPJ off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. He’s scored at least 48.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games with Porter Jr. out of the lineup, which makes him an elite target at his current salary across the industry.
Damian Lillard could be a bit overlooked. Most people will likely gravitate toward Irving or Murray, but the Blazers’ implied team total of 121.75 is actually the top mark on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Caris LeVert isn’t exactly priced like a stud at $6,600 on DraftKings, but he has the potential to deliver a stud-like performance. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +9.4% with Durant off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He should operate as the Nets’ clear No. 2 option behind Irving vs. the Jazz, especially with Spencer Dinwiddie out for the year with an injury.
Value
Gary Harris doesn’t typically provide much value when on the court – he’s averaged 0.57 FanDuel points per minute this season – but that doesn’t mean he can’t provide some fantasy value on today’s slate. He’s priced at just $3,800 on FanDuel, which is extremely cheap considering the number of minutes he’s playing. He’s currently projected for 33.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with a comparable salary and minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.54.
Fast Break
Zach LaVine has been fantastic recently, scoring at least 39.7 FanDuel points in four of his past five games. That includes a 58.7 FanDuel-point performance in his last game. He’s in a solid spot tonight vs. the Blazers, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency to start the year. His nine Pro Trends on FanDuel are also tied for the most at the position.
Paul George is another player who has been balling recently. He’s scored at least 52.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, and his matchup vs. the Spurs results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.61 on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
It’s a tough day to pay up at small forward. LeBron James remains as good as ever, but his limited workload to start the season makes it tough to trust him.
Your best bet is probably Kawhi Leonard, but he only really makes sense on DraftKings. He’s too expensive on FanDuel, where his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of just 1%. He’s much more reasonable at $9,100 on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 51.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. There are better values available at the position, but Kawhi has arguably the highest ceiling.
Value
Will Barton has started the past two games for the Nuggets in place of Porter Jr., and he should draw another start today. He logged 36 minutes in his first start of the season, but a poor shooting night ultimately limited him to just 18.25 DraftKings points. He didn’t see as many minutes in his second start, but he was able to rack up 29.0 DraftKings points in a comfortable win over the Timberwolves. If Barton can combine the minutes from his first start with the efficiency from his second, he has the potential to be one of the best values on the slate.
Fast Break
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Josh Okogie stand out as two of the best pure values on the slate on DraftKings. Both players are expected to play significant minutes, and both players are priced at $3,700 or less. Both players are projected for a Plus/Minus of at least +6.88 in our NBA Models, which rank in the top three on today’s slate.
SF is loaded with quality options on FanDuel, but Otto Porter is one of the best. He’s averaged a stout 1.05 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he has seen plenty of minutes recently given the absence of Lauri Markkanen. He’s underpriced at $5,300 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 73%.
Power Forward
Stud
DeMar DeRozan has taken on a bit of a different role for the Spurs this season. He’s spending more time as a power forward, which has allowed them to open up plenty of minutes for their talented young backcourt. The move hasn’t hurt DeRozan from a fantasy perspective either: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.92 through his first six games on DraftKings.
DeRozan would become an even stronger option if LaMarcus Aldridge is unable to suit up. He’s currently listed as questionable, and DeRozan has increased his usage rate by a team-high +2.5% with Aldridge off the court this season. He’s also increased his fantasy production to 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in that situation.
Value
Paul Millsap isn’t playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he has the chance to be more involved offensively with Porter Jr. out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.4% with MPJ off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.88 FanDuel points per minute. Millsap is currently projected for 25.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be enough for him to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
Thaddeus Young is another potential value option for the Bulls. He’s played at least 27 minutes in two of his past three games, and he should see a similar workload today vs. the Blazers. He’s simply too cheap at $4,100 on FanDuel
If you’re looking to go even cheaper at power forward, Taurean Prince and Jeff Green are both viable options for the Nets. Prince started the last time that Durant was out of the lineup, but he and Green both project for similar workloads against the Jazz.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has been one of the best fantasy players in the league, but he’s taken his game to another level to start the year. He’s averaged 60.3 DraftKings points through his first six games, with no one else on the slate averaging more than 48.8 points. That is a pretty massive gap.
Jokic should also benefit from Porter Jr. being out of the lineup. He hasn’t increased his usage rate with MPJ off the court so far this season, but that’s over a relatively small sample size. Porter Jr. ranks third on the team in scoring, so it would make sense if Jokic had to carry a larger scoring burden in his absence.
Jokic also owns an elite matchup vs. the Timberwolves. The Nuggets are currently implied for 119.25 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate, and the Timberwolves have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Value
Ed Davis saw a bit more run at center for the Timberwolves in their last contest. He played a season-high 24 minutes, and he’s going to be an excellent value if he sees a comparable workload today. Davis has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute to start the year, but he’s capable of improving that average as the season progresses.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter has always been an excellent fantasy producer on a per-minute basis, and he’s gotten the chance to play consistent minutes with the Blazers this season. He’s played at least 22 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s unsurprisingly scored at least 23.5 DKFP in all of them. That includes a massive 44.0 DKFP performance in his last outing, so he has plenty of upside at his current price tag.
Rudy Gobert is an elite value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s been one of the most consistent players in fantasy to start the year, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his first six games and he’s averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also in an elite spot against the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.8 on DraftKings. That makes him tough to pass up.
