The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features nine games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET. Then, it’s the All-Star break!
Point Guard
Stud
The game with the highest projected game total also gives us the best point guard options. De’Aaron Fox and Damian Lillard square off in Sacramento and represent top five plays on both sites, according to the FantasyLabs NBA Model. Despite being priced at the top of the position, Lillard is a top-three play and has seen his Fantasy Points Per Minute (FP/M) increase over the past month and has one of the five-best opponent matchups, based on Opponent Plus/Minus.
Fox’s value comes from his cheaper price tag and advantageous matchup against a poor Portland defense. He also is expected to carry much less ownership on DraftKings than Lillard.
Value
Terence Davis is the top point guard play on DraftKings in the second of a back-to-back for the Toronto Raptors. I disagree with out model’s placement of Davis after a poor performance Wednesday in an easier matchup. Davis will get run for the Raptors, as they battle depth issues because of COVID-19 issues.
If I am paying down at the position, I want to pay attention to the Clippers injury report. Reggie Jackson had his best game of the season without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup, and is only $3,900 on DraftKings. Teammate Patrick Beverley is a top-10 play at point guard, but is asked to do more defensively than Jackson and doesn’t carry the same usage.
Fast Break
T.J. McConnell had a historic Wednesday, becoming the second Pacer to ever record a triple-double with steals and did so shooting 8 for 8 from the field. Recency bias should inflate his ownership, but his play behind and alongside Malcolm Brogdon has been one of the surprising revelations from the first half of the NBA season.
Brogdon is coming off his second consecutive 20-point performance and is a top-two option on FanDuel.
Dennis Smith Jr. is coming off his own triple-double and has #NarrativeStreet on his side against the New York Knicks. His has a 95-percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is a top-three play at the one.
Derrick Rose is questionable to play for the Knicks. Keep up to the date on the latest news with the Labs Insider Tool.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It is Paul George chalk night, with the potential of Kawhi Leonard sitting out the Clippers’ final game before the All-Star Break. His ownership will be the highest among shooting guards, especially with his discounted price on FanDuel. He has the best Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel by a large margin and is only bettered in fantasy point projection by Bradley Beal.
Value
Svi Mykhailiuk had his second-best fantasy output of the season last night in almost 37 minutes of play and should see similar run, as Detroit heads to the break. He is only $3,700 on FanDuel and $3,100 on DraftKings. Wayne Ellington also makes for a discounted play if he starts over Mykhailiuk.
Fast Break
Buddy Hield has found his shooting stroke from three the past two games (15-for-26) and gets the defensively challenged Trail Blazers.
I would feel a lot better about Devin Booker if he offered any consistency at secondary scoring categories. His scoring has also been inconsistent lately saw his shots cut in half against the Lakers on Tuesday. Booker needs to do more with his volume shooting to be trustworthy.
Jaylen Brown gets the Raptors on the second of their back-to-back without many of their best players. Smash spot for Brown and teammate Jayson Tatum.
Donte DiVincenzo is a candidate to get more run, as the Bucks head into the break. He should have suppressed ownership and is in a good spot against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard’s status is a mystery, and after Tuesday’s post-lock debacle, it might be best to stay away from him.
Brandon Ingram had his minutes reduced last night in their loss against the Bulls as coach Stan Van Gundy switched his team’s rotation a bit. Ingram gets a Miami Heat group that could be without Jimmy Butler. That makes for an advantageous matchup without already sitting atop the position as the best play on FanDuel.
Value
Nicolas Batum could be in line for big minutes if Leonard is out and with Marcus Morris expected to be out with a concussion. He is $4,200 and is a top-three option on both platforms. Batum is projected for 30-plus minutes and gets a jumbled Wizards forward rotation.
Fast Break
This is a Jayson Tatum smash spot. I do not know if playing him with Brown is great in a potential blowout, but it is not off the table.
Kent Bazemore played well in a spot start for Golden State last night, but has a much more difficult matchup against Mikal Bridges and the Phoenix Suns. He is not a pay down option for me this evening.
Carmelo Anthony is a nice pay down option with Portland projected to score the most points on the slate. I like him even more if his minutes do not overlap against Harrison Barnes.
Barnes himself has been an excellent DFS play as of late. His success is also a correlation with Richaun Holmes’ success now that he is healthy.
Alec Burks playing 20-plus minutes nightly will keep R.J. Barrett’s ceiling in check, which is a shame because Barrett’s price continues to be enticing and the Pistons could be without Josh Jackson and Jerami Grant again.
Power Forward
Stud
Jayson Tatum gets the FanDuel boost as a power forward and is $2,300 cheaper than Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis is the top power-forward option on DraftKings and has the best projection by 12.35 fantasy points.
Value
I like pairing Daniel Theis with Tatum in a stack because it covers the minutes at the four in a potential blowout that benefits both players. Theis’ price tops out at $5,100 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
It is Draymond Green’s birthday today.
As of this writing, FantasyLabs has Saddiq Bey matched up against Julius Randle to start the Knicks-Pistons game. Say a prayer for Bey.
I could see Frank Kaminsky eating into Jae Crowder’s playing time against the Warriors tonight as Golden State continues to slowly bring back rookie center James Wiseman. The lack of athleticism in Golden State’s frontcourt plays to Kaminsky’s strengths and could be a matchup to exploit.
Robert Covington continues to be a value in DFS as he is shooting the ball well and is a blocks machine for Portland.
If Bam Adebayo misses the game against the Pelicans, Zion Williamson is locked in on all fantasy platforms.
Center
Stud
Do not fade Nikola Jokic. Do not fade Nikola Jokic if Damontas Sabonis is out for Indiana. Unsurprisingly, The Joker leads the position with 11 Pro Trends. At $10,900 on DraftKings, the MVP candidate is a 95% bargain.
Value
Serge Ibaka and Brook Lopez are underpriced on DraftKings, while Aron Baynes is cheap on FanDuel, as his minutes could skyrocket. Ibaka and Lopez stand out as sub-$5,000 plays on teams that lack center depth and/or talent.
Fast Break
For as good as Enes Kanter has been in DFS, Richaun Holmes is the better play in the Trail Blazers-Kings game. Kanter is $400 cheaper than Holmes on FanDuel and pops as the top center on FanDuel.
Nerlens Noel is going to play until he breaks down (or Mitchell Robinson returns). Tom Thibodeau is going to get as much juice out of Noel as possible. Noel’s pricing has not caught up to his minutes, and is under $6,000 on both sites.
Jakob Poeltl will be lower owned for San Antonio but gets the Oklahoma City Thunder on the second of a back-to-back and should be without Al Horford because of rest.
If Steven Adams continues to look his age and generally play poorly, Willy Hernangomez is going to be one of the better center values going forward. Hernangomez is $1,000 cheaper than Adams on DraftKings and $900 cheaper on FanDuel.
