The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features 11 games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET. Welcome back from the All-Star break.
Point Guard
Stud
On such a large slate there is sure to be plenty of players to anchor lineups. James Harden and John Wall are two I want to base my guard positions around on DraftKings, while Luka Doncic and De’Aaron Fox are locks on FanDuel.
As long as Kevin Durant remains injured, Harden and Kyrie Irving remain the dominant offensive forces for Brooklyn. Despite being priced at $11,000 on DraftKings, Harden has an 88 percent Bargain Rating and leads the position with 11 Pro Trends. The Nets have the second-highest projected team total tonight against the Boston Celtics according to the Vegas Model.
Doncic and Fox are both projected to be in the top five at point guard on FanDuel in terms of fantasy points scored. Fox is also an 82 percent bargain on FanDuel at $8,500. As expected with the big name players, ownership will be higher.
Value
Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey have a chance to run roughshod on Coby White and Tomas Satoransky with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid out for health and safety protocol reasons. When Simmons is out the offense would be Embiid’s to control, but since both are out offensive distribution should spread more. The two are cheaper on FanDuel with Maxey coming in a minimum price.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio is the top overall play, according to our NBA Model. He has the best matchup using Opponent Plus/Minus and is the unquestioned starter at point guard. Another encouraging sign is that the veteran has seen his Fantasy Points Per Minute increase over the past month. Minnesota is 8.5-point underdogs against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight which looks good for catch-up purposes, but players in game where they are 7-point dogs or worse have a slightly negative output, according to our Pro Trends.
If low ownership is where you want to gain an edge at the position, players to target include Chris Paul, Trae Young, Kyle Lowry, and Michael-Carter Williams. Young and Lowry square off against each other.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The late game tonight gives us Paul George against the Golden State Warriors. He is a top-five play on both sites and is the only higher priced two that ranks in the top 10. James Harden is expected to lead the position in ownership on FanDuel and is $3,700 more than George. The position is thinner up top than point guard, so paying down to George is not a bad option.
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic touched 20 minutes of play in his second game back from injury and had a week to rest. He faces a shorthanded Toronto Raptors squad and is $500 above minimum price on DraftKings. He is also the to play at shooting guard.
Seth Curry should start for the 76ers and is $4,200 on FanDuel. Curry is a sharpshooter from deep but will be facing a Bulls team that is fifth in three-point field goals percentage against.
Fast Break
Norman Powell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Victor Oladipo are all cheaper pivots off George and project to play the same or more minutes. Powell is $1,300 cheaper than PG13 on DraftKings and is going to help carry the Raptors. The $7,000 tier has the best options and should help flatten ownership.
Tyler Herro and Terrence Ross can shoot hot and be the best plays in the sandwich pricing area. The game total of 214.5 is going to scare off some DFS players and is a game to target for unique plays.
Buddy Hield could be a forgotten option against Houston with Fox and Tyrese Haliburton playing large guard minutes for Sacramento. He was producing well prior to the All-Star break, posting three straight games of 30 fantasy points or more.
Small Forward
Stud
Brandon Ingram should feast on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. He is the top FanDuel small forward and is a top ten option on DraftKings. He is a major discount from Kawhi Leonard on FanDuel and has the second highest point projection at the position. The Pelicans also have the highest projected team total and the highest game total.
Value
Paying down at the three is not as enticing, but Bogdan Bogdanovic is a small forward on FanDuel and DraftKings. Stanley Johnson is also going to get run for Toronto tonight behind Powell and is minimum price on FanDuel.
If the 76ers are struggling to score against Chicago tonight, someone like Furkan Korkmaz could see more playing time. There are worse dart throws.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton is overpriced on DraftKings but is going to get overlooked on FanDuel despite being a reasonable $7,600. Middleton tends to play better when Giannis Antetokounmpo is off his game and would be a smash play against the New York Knicks if you can tell that tale to yourself.
I love the idea of pivoting off any non-Harden Nets for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Brooklyn is a defensive liability and running it back with one of them is strongly recommended. Boston is getting healthy and the two will be playing the three and four respectively once Marcus Smart is playing a full complement of minutes. His return is great news of everyone on offense.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson is not the chalk. Sure, he will cost you plenty but with so many players expected to focus on Tobias Harris in a smash spot, Williamson is my favorite play at power forward. Do not ignore the savings Harris offers, especially on FanDuel. Harris should see Lauri Markkanen in his return from injury.
Williamson and Harris are 2-3 on FanDuel behind Giannis in projected fantasy points at power forward.
Value
Al-Farouq Aminu is $4,000 or less on both sites and will face a depleted Miami Heat frontcourt. Bam Adebayo is out tonight, leaving Miami with Kelly Olynyk, Precious Achiuwa, and Andre Iguodala as the options to guard a healthier group of bigs for Orlando.
Fast Break
I like Robert Covington despite a negative matchup against Jae Crowder and the Suns. Covington correlates well with Damian Lillard and is better when Enes Kanter is off his game. Deandre Ayton should neutralize Kanter and Lillard will battle with Chris Paul. I expect Lillard to succeed more than Kanter in their respective matchups, meaning Covington has a better chance to succeed. He is not a sexy option but will be overlooked for the top-tier power forwards.
Aaron Gordon is questionable for the Orlando Magic. He has missed over a month due to a sprained left ankle and if active will have a minutes limit.
Keep up to date on the latest NBA news with the Labs Insiders Tool.
Jake Layman dart throw season? Minnesota’s rotation is a mess, but he has consecutive games with double digit scoring and 20-plus fantasy points. Layman leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and is projected to play 27 minutes. He is $3,200 on DraftKings and the number two play at the four.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns against Steven Adams is a matchup I am okay exploiting. Adams has lost time to Jaxson Hayes and Juancho Hernangomez in matchups against lesser centers. If he did not project well, I doubt I pay up at the position with Embiid out.
Value
Dwight Howard will be a chalky option against Chicago. Howard does not typically start when Embiid is out, but will see upwards of 30 minutes with the Bulls a cesspool at center. He projects to score 8.8 fantasy points per $1,000 salary (Pts/Sal).
If you want to dodge Howard’s ownership and save at center, target Justin Patton of the Rockets and Aron Baynes of the Raptors.
Fast Break
Like I mentioned under the Stud section, paying up at center does not make a lot of sense with so many cheap options. Paying up makes sense if security at the position is a must for you. Bonuses for double-doubles are nice but there is enough value for bonuses like that without paying up.
There are several centers — Mason Plumlee, Kelly Olynyk, and Brook Lopez among others — that get counting stats that boost fantasy scores and do not break the bank. Point guard and center have been plentiful throughout the season on slates smaller than tonight’s. Take advantage of the depth.
