NBA DFS Breakdown (Thursday, Jan. 21): Warriors’ Curry Highlights Top Plays On Limited Card

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday’s slate features three games, scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET.

New offer from FantasyLabs: Get our NFL models and tools free when you sign up for the NBA monthly plan!

Point Guard

Stud

Steph Curry is the high-priced point guard option on today’s mini slate. Despite being the only expensive option, Curry is a top-three play, according to our NBA Model. He is the best player when looking at Projected Plus/Minus, Fantasy Points Per Minute and PER.

Curry is playing in only his second back-to-back set of the season, despite the condensed early schedule. In his previous back-to-back, Curry scored 69 and 50.8 points on Jan. 3 and 4. His production is down despite his usage, but know Curry can get hot and perform will despite a quick turnaround.

Value

Eric Bledsoe is the top point guard on FanDuel, plus a top-five play on DraftKings and has a respectable 69% Bargain Rating. He projects to lead the position at Projected Plus/Minus and Points Per Salary on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Mike Conley is my favorite non-Curry play. Conley has double-digit steals in four of his last five games and has attempted 10-plus field goal attempts in all but one game this season.

Jrue Holiday has been consistent for Milwaukee in that he rarely plays poorly, but also has lower ceiling games despite his role with the Bucks. Milwaukee takes on the Lakers and Holiday should see a healthy number of attempts with LeBron James and Anthony Davis expected to try and slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks-Lakers game carries the highest projected game total, according to our Vegas Model.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Donovan Mitchell must have read my piece Sunday where I said to fade him. He performed well despite five turnovers, including hitting four three-point attempts. He still is only four for his last 14 from downtown but Mitchell has a chance to eat against the New Orleans Pelicans. Mitchell is the top player on DraftKings when using Projected Plus/Minus and faces a Pelicans team that has an Opponent Plus/Minus of 3.07 on FanDuel and 2.38 on DraftKings. Those numbers are tops against starting shooting guards.

Value

Reggie Bullock is $100 over minimum price on FanDuel and projects for just under 30 minutes for the shorthanded New York Knicks. Ownership could be his biggest drawback at his price.

Fast Break

Immanuel Quickley is a bounce-back candidate after his worst shooting performance in a week. His usage has been over 30% for the past week in part because of injuries throughout the Knicks roster, but he had also been producing with his increased role.

Andrew Wiggins played last night despite being questionable with a knee injury. Monitor his situation ahead of Golden State’s second game in as many nights. He looked good and has a top-three Ceiling Projection on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Small Forward

Stud

Death. Taxes. LeBron James questionable for tonight’s game. James is coming off his first sub-40 FanDuel point performance since December 27 and has had three days to get ready for a marquee matchup against Giannis. I’d expect him to play with the intent of balling against the Bucks.

The only other high-priced player is Brandon Ingram. He should match James’ ownership as a cheaper pivot as both have similar floor and median projections.

Value

Kelly Oubre is taking advantage of his playing time with Golden State’s second unit. He has posted 30-plus FanDuel points in consecutive games for the first time since Golden State’s only other back-to-back at the beginning of January. He is the top play on FanDuel and a top five play on DraftKings according to our NBA Model.

Fast Break

Small Forward is shallow tonight. Expect to spend a little more here than at other positions.

Khris Middleton has been money for Milwaukee and is expected to see similar ownership as James and Ingram on tonight’s small slate. He also is a top five play on FanDuel and DraftKings.

JJ Redick is coming off his fewest three-point attempts in nearly a month. His four attempts is below his 5.38 average for the season, which also includes one game with no attempts in right minutes of play. I am cool using Redick as a desperation play to vary exposure to other players if you submit multiple lineups.

Power Forward

Stud

Power Forward has four legit options priced above $8,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings, with Zion Williamson under that threshold on DraftKings. He deserves to be clumped in with the top players as a top-six option on both sites.

Julius Randle tops our NBA Model for both sites and is by far the best play at the four on DraftKings. His price is well below Giannis and Anthony Davis and he projects for the highest Ceiling play at the position. His price tag will also draw plenty of ownership, making him an easier fade if you believe Draymond Green can slow down Randle.

Value

If you believe Randle will get his against the Warriors tonight, Nerlens Noel could see an uptick in production as well. He has split position eligibility and is listed as a power forward on FanDuel. Playing Randle and leveraging with Noel as his center means taking advantage of Golden State’s questionable defense in the paint.

If Noel is a little to risky for you, Kyle Kuzma has been shooting the three-point ball well and will get run with LeBron and Davis in smaller sets. He is the best bargain at power forward on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Anthony Davis is rated higher than Giannis on both sites if you want to roster one of the top power forwards on the slate.

Draymond Green is a top five play on both sites despite an expected battle with New York’s offensive-minded front court.

Center

Stud

Giannis, Davis, and Randle all have center eligibility on DraftKings. The other elite center is Rudy Gobert. He has a top five Ceiling, Points Per Salary, Projected Plus Minus, Usage Rating, Leverage rating, PER, Bargain Rating, and has eight Pro Trends on DraftKings. Gobert also does not commit many fouls, averaging 2.4 per game, one full foul less than his opponent that I will get to later. Not bad for the fifth-priced center on DK.

Value

Brook Lopez has balled despite recent tough matchups against Brooklyn, Dallas, and Detroit. Center is another shallow position tonight and his sub-$5,500 price tag on both sites is valuable, especially with a relatively safe floor.

Fast Break

Steven Adams is the top play on FanDuel at center but should carry similar ownership as his opponent Rudy Gobert. That will be a fun matchup to watch beyond the fantasy perspective.

Montrezl Harrell is projected to carry lower ownership than any center already named. He has topped 30 fantasy points on both sites in three of his past six games.

James Wiseman has alternated double-digit scoring performance over the past five games. If you believe in those types of trends, fade the rookie against the Knicks.