The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features five games, scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Hello Steph Curry versus Luka Doncic. Despite being pricey both fall in the top-six plays on FanDuel and DraftKings. Most of the time it is easy to shrug off elite players toward the top of our model, but the slate is loaded at point guard when you include LeBron James, Ben Simmons, and Donovan Mitchell. Doncic’s Projected Plus/Minus blows away the rest of the options. The biggest concern with Doncic is a potential minutes limit coming off a gameWednesday.
Value
John Wall, who is $6,900 on DraftKings, is the top-rated point guard as well as a top-five option on FanDuel. Wall did not play last night on the front of Houston’s back-to-back and should play. He has a 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
If saving salary is your game, Monte Morris will get his second consecutive start with Gary Harris and PJ Dozier out for Denver. He can snag a couple steals and could score in double digits for $400 above minimum price on FanDuel and $1,200 on DraftKings. There is a chance his ownership tops 10% as DFS players look to stuff as many elite players as possible in their lineup.
Fast Break
The middle tier is loaded today, Ja Morant (top overall play on FanDuel), Wall, Simmons, Mike Conley, and Jamal Murray, among others. Beyond the elite point guards, ownership should remain flat.
If Damian Lillard is out, Anfernee Simons becomes an attractive option.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell is the only shooting guard price above $7,000 tonight with Victor Oladipo expected to miss the game for rest purposes. Mitchell is tied a top Leverage rating play on DraftKings, because the position lacks an elite option.
Value
Kevin Huerter has been a welcomed bright spot on the offensive end of the court for Atlanta and has been more than serviceable defensively. He ranks as the second overall player tonight using our NBA Model coming off a double-double in Wednesday’s game.
The Utah Jazz are average against opposing shooting guards and will look to slow Huerter and put more pressure on his streaky-shooting teammate, Cam Reddish. Huerter leads the position with nine Pro Trends this evening.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson has gotten more run for Dallas, and has posted consecutive games of double-digit scoring. On the second of a back-to-back, J-Rich could see a fourth consecutive 35-minute game while allowing studs like Doncic to see a few less minutes. He is the top-rated shooting guard on DraftKings. Dallas-Golden State has the highest projected game total on the slate, according to our Vegas Model.
Dillon Brooks pops in our NBA Model, but I am a little weary because his 40-point FanDuel came on the heals of Ja Morant having a down game. The position is thin, so he is still in consideration. Set expectations a little lower.
Gary Trent has seven three-pointers made in two of his past four games, and six combined in the other two contests. His floor could be the reason to look elsewhere.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is the only high-priced small forward tonight. He has scored at least 40 FanDuel points in all but two games in 2021 and is always a threat for double-double and triple-double bonuses.
Value
Dorian Finney-Smith is the top rated small forward on both sites and is $3,900 on the two as well. He is also the top Points Per Salary and Projected Plus/Minus play at small forward and is projected to lead the position with 26-30% ownership on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kelly Oubre has not figured it out consistently with the Warriors. Regardless, he is a top-five option on both sites tonight with Dallas playing last night. His athleticism is through the roof and be the leverage play at the three on FanDuel this evening. His Leverage and Bargain ratings top 60%.
Juan Toscano-Anderson was thrust into action after Golden State lost what feels like their 37th center of the season Tuesday night. He looked good in the second half, and is a production candidate by default with so little scoring options beyond Steph Curry for the Warriors.
Michael Porter Jr. and Will Barton have suboptimal matchups against the Lakers, as Los Angeles has held the small forward position to a -0.40 or worse Opponent Plus/Minus against the position, depending on who starts and plays with the second unit.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis squaring off against NBA MVP-favorite Nikola Jokic is going to be appointment television. Davis’s price tag keeps him away from the top of our NBA Model often, but he is the only elite option at power forward tonight. He is a top Leverage play on both sites. I would lean paying for Davis at a thin power-forward position than pay for Mitchell at shooting guard.
Value
Maxi Kleber is the top overall play on DraftKings and top-rated four on FanDuel. Kristaps Porzingis continues to see minutes opposite Kleber with Dallas lacking a true center option. Kleber is shooting over 40% from three and will force the Warriors to play what few bigs they have away from the basket. He projects to be the highest owned power forward (and center on DraftKings) tonight.
Fast Break
The Utah Jazz are exceptionally good defensively, including against power forwards. Our NBA Model is split on John Collins, projecting him to be a better Leverage and Bargain on FanDuel. He is the fourth-best option on FanDuel but is the seventh-worst four on DraftKings. Royce O’Neale is expected to start and line up against Collins when looking at the FantasyLabs Matchups tool.
Center
Stud
Jokic and Joel Embiid have had easier matchups on paper, but fading both would be a mistake. Embiid is a defensive monster and has scored less than 20 points three times. Jokic is atop the MVP list now and has his chance to make his case stronger against Anthony Davis. Embiid is ranked higher in our models and is the best center on FanDuel.
Value
Eric Paschall is going to play center for Golden State by default. His concern is a minutes limit that has kept him under 15 the past two games. His back spasms can pop up at any point, so the risk is higher with Paschall than normal for a cheaper play. He is not center-eligible on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Christian Wood (and much of the Houston Rockets) had a game to forget last night against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Houston plays Memphis, and the Grizzlies allow an Opponent Plus/Minus over three, tops on the slate. DeMarcus Cousins played well last night and will look to do the same in a plus matchup. Wood is center-eligible on DraftKings, but not FanDuel.
Clint Capela and Rudy Gobert hurt each other’s value as they square off. Both are excellent rebounders and shot blockers and could limit each other’s point production. The two have fantasy point floors around 18, according to our model but I could see both maxing at 30 fantasy points.
