NBA DFS Breakdown (Thursday, Feb. 11): Raptors’ VanVleet, Heat’s Adebayo Highlight Card

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday’s slate features five games, scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

The obvious smash spots are Damian Lillard and Steph Curry, as they continue to see sky-high usage as their respective team’s alpha scorer, but the player that leads the point guard spot using the FantasyLabs NBA Model is Malcolm Brogdon. He has been on a miniature slump as he continues to struggle from three-point range (3-14 over his past three games) all while posting 30-plus fantasy points on FanDuel and DraftKings.

The Pacers had their doors blown off last night as the Brooklyn Nets showed up defensively while the Pacers struggled in the same vein, and Brogdon said as much after the game. Leaders lead and his 6.53 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel against the Detroit Pistons makes him a great play at an affordable price.

Value

Kendrick Nunn at $5,000 on FanDuel is too cheap even if he is being asked to facilitate more as the starter. The Heat have strung a few good wins together while Nunn has started and get a weak Houston Rockets team. Nunn’s price tag on FanDuel gives him an 85 percent Bargain Rating.

Fast Break

Orlando’s Cole Anthony appears to have averted a serious wrist injury, and is questionable for the game against Golden State. If he plays it could take away another bargain point guard in Frank Mason III.

Dennis Smith Jr. is on track to make his Detroit Pistons debut. He is going to be a cheap DFS play in the coming week to monitor.

Point guard is concentrated. The only consensus NBA Model top five play not mentioned yet is Ben Simmons.

A cheaper team stack I am digging is John Wall and Eric Gordon. The two correlate well and are heavy shooters for an offensive-needy Rockets squad.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Fred VanVleet had his first sub-30 fantasy point game in nearly 10 days, as the Raptors dropped last night’s game to the lowly Wizards. He gets a fun matchup against Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics. With Brown coming off a six-day absence with a 33-point effort Tuesday, look for Van Vleet to come out firing.

Value

Tyrese Maxey could get a boost in playing time with Shake Milton hurt. At $3,200 on DraftKings, he is the position’s projected leader in Plus/Minus and Points Per Salary. Maxey does not project as well on FanDuel, but is only $400 above minimum price.

Fast Break

Victor Oladipo is the only other shooting guard in the elite pricing tier on both sites, making the position a leverage spot with the VanVleet and Oladipo, or a fade spot.

Seth Curry is back from the dead. He has produced back-to-back 20-plus fantasy point efforts, and is the top-ranked two on FanDuel against a porous Portland defense. Cheaper options like Curry and Maxey stick out, too, as 76ers-Trail Blazers has the highest projected game total on the slate, according to the FantasyLabs Vegas Model.

Normal Powell is on fire and is on the short list of plays if OG Anunoby is out again.

Small Forward

Stud

A healthy Jimmy Butler should scare the Eastern Conference. The Miami Heat are winning, and Butler is leading the way. He has scored at least 41 fantasy points (depending on site) in all six games since returning from COVID-19. He may be the safest play at small forward, and is tied with the more volatile Jerami Grant with an 86 percent Leverage Score on FanDuel. Butler is the only player above $5,700 on DraftKings with a Leverage Score more than 90 percent.

Value

Danny Green could see an increase in production against Portland’s defense. He is a top two play and is priced under $4,000 dollars on both sites. Green has seen at least 20 minutes in all but three contests this season and can score in double digits without a lot of attempts.

Fast Break

Jerami Grant leads the position in Pro Trends and gets a Pacers defense that has given up at least 100 points in 12 consecutive games. The Pistons are only three-point, home underdogs, with Indiana on the second of a back-to-back.

Juan Toscano-Anderson is small forward masquerading as a power forward for the shorthanded Warriors. Since seeing his minutes increase, JTA has scored at least 20 fantasy points and has multiple steals and/or blocks in four of five of those games.

Terrence Ross has small forward eligibility on DraftKings and could be asked to help shoulder the offensive load if Evan Fournier misses another game with ongoing back issues.

Pascal Siakam is a tough fade on the second of a back-to-back. He has been hit or miss on the second leg this season and gets a respectable defensive unit in Boston.

Power Forward

Stud

Short and sweet on Bam Adebayo – he is going to crush against the Rockets. A tricky but fun game stack with Wall, Gordon, Butler and Adebayo is in play for me.

I do not know who will guard Jayson Tatum between Siakam and Chris Boucher, but I expect the Celtic to perform well. He is the top priced power forward on both sites. The uber-athletic Tatum makes it difficult to consider Boucher if that ends up being his defensive assignment.

Value

Daniel Theis continues to play minutes at the four and five and will also give the Raptors trouble. Toronto has issues guarding big men and Theis has a top-five Opponent Plus/Minus grade on both sites that reflects as much.

Fast Break

Kelly Olynyk has played well alongside Adebayo and has multiple three-pointers made in nine consecutive games. He is also only $100 more than Theis if you want to save salary or go full-game onslaught.

Damontas Sabonis was off to start the game against the Nets last night, but finished with a solid fantasy score. He should have his way with Blake Griffin and is sandwiched between Adebayo and Tatum in pricing on both sites.

I am really looking to seeing how Draymond Green plays against Nikola Vucevic, giving up six inches to the big man. Green’s defensive assignment could hinder his facilitator role on the offensive side. I really want his triple-double threat in my lineups but do not know if it makes since with Vucevic commanding the ball so much on an injury-riddled Magic team.

Center

Stud

Vucevic is a top-three overall play on the slate. His projected ownership on FanDuel remains under 20 percent but is expected to top the position on DraftKings. His price tag is well below Joel Embiid, which should drive his ownership above our projections. Embiid’s juicy matchup against Portland will attract enough players despite the cost but Vucevic will battle for highest overall ownership.

Value

Dwight Howard could be on mop up duty against Portland. When playing over 20 minutes this season, Howard has topped 30 fantasy points in two of five games. He has been a net positive player on both sites this season despite the volatility attached to players in his price range (under $4,500). The 76ers do not have a back-to-back until March, so Howard has minutes unpredictability short of a blowout in their favor.

Fast Break

Mason Plumlee is on track to be under-owned despite another favorable matchup against the Pacers. Using him on DraftKings in a two-center lineup makes a lot of sense.

Myles Turner and DeMarcus Cousins are top-five plays on both slates but fades for me as they play against much better front courts.

If a punt play could pick a punt play, it would pick Isaiah Stewart. He is $200 above minimum price on DraftKings and could see more minutes if Blake Griffin and/or Mason Plumlee get into foul trouble trying to slow down Domantas Sabonis.