The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features six games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Steph Curry is the top rated point guard on FanDuel and DraftKings, according to the NBA Model. He far and away has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and has an 84% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Curry is also rated significantly higher than Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic on DraftKings. It matters for Irving, who is only listed as a point guard. Doncic can also slot in at small forward if you want to occupy those two slots and leaving your guard and forward positions open for flexibility.
Value
Facundo Campazzo is too cheap at $4,600 across platforms for a starter on a good team. 30 fantasy points is in play nightly with Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. playing great basketball. The Toronto Raptors are one of the better matchups for opposing point guards and Campazzo will be playing big minutes with Denver lacking depth in their backcourt.
Fastbreak
Lonzo Ball’s ownership is important to watch after logging a triple-double last night. He has a great matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder because he can excel on both ends of the court. I have written previously that OKC is a team to target for defensive stats and Ball has multiple steals in five of seven games since returning from injury. He is a top 10 option on both platforms.
Jrue Holiday is the second Buck to play after Giannis Antetokounmpo. He will be tasked with slowing Kevin Porter Jr. and the Houston Rockets. KPJ is coming off a horrific offensive performance and gets to deal with one of the better defensive guards in the league.
Malcolm Brogdon has scored 20-plus points in eight of 11 April games and is the focal point of the Pacers offense without Domantas Sabonis, among others. I would imagine T.J. McConnell will be asked to guard Irving some to let Brogdon focus on offense, but I think he gets overlooked in this game when he should not. Nets-Pacers has the highest game total on the slate.
Lu Dortz has a 26-point floor in April and is eligible at PG/SG on DraftKings and SF on FanDuel. He is also priced at $6,500 or less and is the alpha for Oklahoma City. He field goal attempt floor for the month is 12.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Andrew Wiggins will be asked to play as long as he can stand with Kelly Oubre doubtful for their game in Minnesota. The Timberwolves have okay defense on the wing, but Wiggins is the third player expected to control the ball behind Curry and Draymond Green. Wiggins is also a 75% bargain and is second at the position with eight Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Frank Jackson and Josh Jackson should be in the Pistons rotation with Detroit sitting starters. Josh is the better of the two and has had more run, but the mass sitting happening with the Pistons puts both in play. Dallas is expected to be without Josh Richardson again and Doncic is perpetually questionable. Josh is a top 10 play on both sites, while Frank is the same on DraftKings.
Fastbreak
I am okay fading majority of the top salary shooting guards on both sites. Caris LeVert is a scorer first and then whatever is cake, Fred Van Vleet is shooting cold lately, and Khris Middleton is out of my player pool.
Anthony Edwards has potential with Oubre doubtful for Golden State. He should be able to get his against Kent Bazemore but may also give it back defensively.
Small Forward
Stud
Michael Porter Jr. is going to see a lot of Pascal Siakam. I do not care. Much like Irving/Brogdon, I think both get theirs as focal points of their respective offenses. Porter’s importance in the Nuggets offense has boosted Jokic even more and has allowed their reeling backcourt to thrive as a complimentary cog in the offense. Kevin Durant is the only small forward with a higher fantasy point projection than Porter on FanDuel. MPJ is $1,300 cheaper.
Value
I said earlier that Kent Bazemore should get his in Minnesota. He returns to the Warriors starting lineup tonight and is $3,900 on DraftKings, making him the top play at small forward.
Fastbreak
OG Anunoby could have his hands full trying to guard a combination of Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, and MPJ, but that has not been an issue for his fantasy production. Anunoby has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four straight games.
Play Kevin Durant against Indiana. The Nets have the highest projected team total and we know the offense will run through him and Irving.
Things have gotten so bad for Khris Middleton that I would rather play Jae’Sean Tate against Middleton and save salary. Milwaukee is favored by 13.5 points and I doubt Middleton is the reason the game gets out of hand.
Oshae Brissett must have read my Tuesday piece questioning his higher price tag. He now has three double-doubles in five games as he fills with the Pacers missing frontcourt players.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis, Zion Williamson, Durant. Let’s go!
After a poor performance by Zion’s standards, he is in a prime spot to bounce back against OKC. He has one of the better matchups using Opponent Plus/Minus.
Value
No Mason Plumlee and Jerami Grant means autolocking Isaiah Stewart into DFS lineups. There is a clear correlation between his best games and Plumlee sitting. Stewart is priced at $6,000 or less on both platforms and could be playing against a Mavericks team short on frontcourt talent if Kristaps Porzingis is out.
Fastbreak
Porzingis is the top power forward on FanDuel if he plays. His $7,600 is gives him one of the best Points Per Salary projections as well.
Darius Bazley’s 31.7 point projection may end up being more his ceiling going against Zion Williamson. Bazley has been great since returning from a lengthy injury but has had his worst performances against teams with athletic power forwards (Toronto, Philadelphia, Utah). Bazley is going to be a force in a year or so, but games like this are learning moments.
Draymond Green fell two points shy of a triple-double Tuesday. I think he gets there against Minnesota because he plays in all game situations and will not be asked to guard Karl-Anthony Towns.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has a plus-plus matchup against Kevon Looney and can meet or pass his FantasyLabs projections in five games. He has also not met or passed projections in consecutive games since April 9 and 11. He is tied with Nikola Jokic with a 90% Leverage score and only trails the MVP favorite in projected points. I cannot blame you for playing either, just know KAT has less usage and a role that changes nightly. Towns is the top rated center on FanDuel.
Value
Willy Hernangomez could get the lion’s share of center minutes for New Orleans after Steven Adams failed to finish last night’s game with his toe injury. He will also be battling Jaxson Hayes for those minutes if Adams is out, but Hernangomez has consistently seen more minutes. He is a 97% Bargain on DraftKings.
Fastbreak
Goga Bitadze is questionable for the Pacers and would have a plus matchup against the small-ball Nets. Bitadze would not play his full workload necessarily but is an instant upgrade over Jakarr Sampson.
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Kelly Olynyk has scored 40-plus fantasy points in three straight games. He is tied with KAT with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and is a 99% bargain on DraftKings.
Blake Griffin is $4,900 on DraftKings and continues to flirt with 30-plus fantasy points. His salary has remained stagnant on DraftKings but has risen over $800 the past few contests.
