The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features four games, scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
When I look at the Cleveland Cavaliers roster, I have a difficult time figuring out who is going to prevent Stephen Curry from going scorched earth. The shorthanded Warriors continue to be carrier by Curry and his 59.5% field-goal percentage over the past five games, while making 55% of his 3-point attempts. Curry is the top point guard on FanDuel using the FantasyLabs NBA Model, and should play his full workload after playing under 30 minutes in Wednesday’s game.
Value
Cameron Payne has become a thing on Phoenix’s second unit. It also does not hurt to learn the craft from Chris Paul and slaying bums. The Kings do not pose much of a threat to guards, making Payne’s recent streak of excellent play easy to latch on to for at least one more game. He’s a top-10 play on both sites.
Fastbreak
Chris Paul and De’Aaron Fox is a fun matchup between a pass-first future Hall of Famer, and the heart and soul of the Kings’ offense. Paul has not met fantasy expectations the past week, failing to hit projection in four in a row, while Fox is stuffing the stat sheet and has topped 50 fantasy points in four of five games on DraftKings. The Kings vs. Suns total has the highest-game total projection at 230.5, six points more than Warriors-Cavaliers. It is difficult to get away from Fox on a short slate and he has lower expected ownership than Curry.
The undercard in Los Angeles is another one to target. Kemba Walker is playing well in expanded minutes and gets to face Dennis Schroder. Schroder’s pelvis injury has not prevented him from logging 35-plus minutes the past couple of games, but will it limit his upside? Schroder is tied for the most Pro Trends at point guard on DraftKings, but is rated lower than Walker, a top-two point guard option on both sites.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Andrew Wiggins has taken a backseat on offense to Curry and Draymond Green, but Cleveland’s guard depth is exploitable, and Wiggins is priced to play, especially if Collin Sexton remains out for the Cavaliers. Wiggins has the second-best Projected Plus/Minus at the position and has seen his fantasy point production increase by 0.1 points per minute over the past month.
Value
Tyrese Haliburton has had his rookie learning moments that have led to his DFS salary yo-yoing. Tonight, it’s down and a target on FanDuel. He tops the shooting-guard ratings and should get the start at the two, with the Kings missing Richaun Holmes.
Damion Lee is also getting good run with Golden State, as it deals with a myriad of injuries. He is $3,100 on DraftKings, with a fantasy points Ceiling in the mid-20s. Lee is a way to differentiate with few options.
Fastbreak
Kevin Huerter has scored double-digit points and played at least 20 minutes in seven consecutive games, and should continue to see looks with Danilo Gallinari projected to be out as Atlanta hosts Milwaukee. Bogdan Bogdanovic has received the praise for balling out, but Huerter’s recent positive play has been great to see after Nate McMillan took over as Atlanta’s head coach and minimized his role.
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Marcus Smart has a 98% Bargain Rating, as well as a favorable matchup against Talen Horton-Tucker and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Smart is also the unquestioned shooting guard, with Evan Fournier still in the league’s COVID-19 health and safety protocols.
Small Forward
Stud
Khris Middleton has another chance to be the main guy for Milwaukee if Giannis Antetokounmpo misses the second of their back-to-back set. The Hawks wing defense is not great, and I doubt Solomon Hill would be asked to guard Middleton if Giannis is out. Middleton is the type of wing Atlanta prefers to not see.
I also like Jaylen Brown against the Lakers but recommending every Celtics player when they are six-point road favorites could be a disaster. Brown’s secondary stats keep his ceiling in check more often than not.
Value
Kent Bazemore and Mikal Bridges top the position on both sites and are within $200 of each other. The duo top all small forwards in Points Per Salary and projected ownership with their roles secured and their opponents defensively challenged. Bazemore has the offensive upside, while Bridges has been one of the best defenders in the NBA this season, and can raise his fantasy floor without the ball in his hands.
Fastbreak
Mo Harkless’s price is tough to ignore with Sacramento struggling with injuries, but the Kings need as many of their best options on the floor for as long as the game is in reach. The Suns are 13.5-point favorites, according to the Vegas Model. Harkless will probably see run if this game is lopsided, but he’s not worth playing with the hope he gets garbage time.
Kyle Kuzma may be better as a fade against the Celtics as he is still dealing with his calf injury. I feel like the Lakers would prefer Kuzma sit, but with their best players hurt and their grasp on a top four seed in the playoffs slipping, he has been asked to do what he can.
Power Forward
Draymond Green to the moon! Kevin Love has played great, but Green could have a monster stat line if Love is forced to stay with him. Green is playing close to 35 minutes per night and could see a bit of Jarrett Allen when the Warriors play a smaller lineup. Allen is a good defender, but not someone who could slow Green’s ability to be a facilitator.
Value
This feels like a Jae Crowder night. His physicality and agility at power forward should give the Kings trouble, especially with Sacramento playing several bigs at the position without Holmes. Crowder only has one 30-plus fantasy point performance in April but finished march strong with two in a row against teams that struggle to defend athletic bigs – Chicago and Atlanta. Crowder is a top five power forward on FanDuel and only costs $4,800.
Fastbreak
Harrison Barnes leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, while Jayson Tatum leads with 10 on DraftKings. Barnes will split time at small and power forward and could possibly be a small center if the Kings do not like their frontcourt play against the Suns. Tatum is the forward I would roster for Boston, because he has realistic double-double upside compared to Jaylen Brown and has a juicy matchup against the hobbled and questionable Markieff Morris.
Dario Saric is a power forward on FanDuel and makes an inexpensive pairing with teammate Deandre Ayton against the Kings. There is a lot of salary savings with the Suns’ frontcourt.
Center
Stud
Deandre Ayton has the best center matchup using Opponent Plus/Minus in a game that should see the Kings try to push the tempo to keep up with Phoenix. That could mean more shot attempts and defensive stats for Ayton’s fantasy floor. He tops the center ratings on DraftKings, but is priced as the 10th-best option.
Value
Once again, the Celtics should thrive against the Lakers and Robert Williams is my favorite Celtic on the card. He’s priced below $6,000 on both sites, and will see time against Andre Drummond and Montrezl Harrell. Both have advantages against “Time Lord,” but Drummond is battling an issue with a big toe and Harrell has been inconsistent and not known for his defense. Only Hassan Whiteside has averaged more Fantasy Points Per Minute the past month on this slate, and he plays far less than Williams.
Fastbreak
Brook Lopez is the top overall play on FanDuel, but I think Clint Capela is good enough defensively to eliminate Lopez and should have zero issues against him on offense. Capela’s upside would be capped if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays, because he will be asked to help on defense a lot.
Hassan Whiteside played nearly half of the Kings minutes at center in Wednesday’s contest. He was a rebound short of a double-double and may be asked to play a similar workload against Ayton. Whiteside could also get in foul trouble quickly; he had four in just under 23 minutes Wednesday and had three in 11 minutes in last Thursday’s game.
