The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s slate features three games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Targeting the Portland Trail Blazers is always twofold: They have dominant offensive talent, but are terrible defensively as a team. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet get a crack at Portland with Damian Lillard questionable to play. VanVleet is the top point-guard option on DraftKings, plus he’s shooting-guard eligible on both sites. Due of the short slate, it’s also more than acceptable to put the Raptors guards in the same lineup.
Get the latest injury news on Lillard using the Labs Insider Tool.
Value
Despite lower usage and not being asked to score a lot, Alex Caruso has been able to accumulate counting statistics across the board, including multiple steals in two of his last three games. He has a top-five matchup, based on Opponent Plus/Minus, and only $3,800 on FanDuel. Its format requires two players at each position except center.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray and Trae Young square off in Atlanta. Trae Young might be the better talent and higher-rated player, using the FantasyLabs NBA Model, but Jamal Murray is in the stronger matchup because he is a better defensive player than Young and not the focal point of defenses. I would be more willing to take one of these two as a pivot off Toronto vs. Portland. That game has a projected total of 229.5 points, while Denver vs. Atlanta is not far behind at 223.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Aside from Van Vleet, CJ McCollum is the only shooting guard worth paying up for. Terrance Ross of the Orlando Magic, who has been sidelined with a sore knee, could sit out with the Magic’s player acquisitions at the trade deadline expected to be available for their game against the Los Angeles Lakers.
McCollum has a difficult road matchup against VanVleet and the Raptors.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and has a plus matchup against Orlando. Shooting guard is weak on this slate and paying down is not advised.
Fast Break
The Denver Nuggets are loaded on the wing with the trade for Aaron Gordon. That move should continue to limit Will Barton’s upside, but the Atlanta Hawks are poor defenders away from the rim. He is in a tier of his own below the studs and a questionable Ross.
Small Forward
Stud
Kyle Kuzma had attempted at least 14 shots in three straight games before going 2-for-7 Friday against the Cavaliers. He salvaged his day with a full stat line and should be able to do both against Orlando. He has the highest fantasy point projection on both sites.
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic took a while to get going for Atlanta, but has been one of their better players over the past week-plus. I do not know how the defensive assignments will be given out on Denver’s side of the ball, but I expect Bogdanovic to continue to attempt double-digit shots. He is the top rated small forward on FanDuel and a top-five play on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The trade of Norman Powell opened the floor for OG Anunoby to get as much playing time as he can handle. It would also make sense that he guards Powell in his return to Toronto days later. Powell is not high on my list, but the revenge narrative is there. Powell is projected to have lower ownership than any small forward talked about to this point.
De’Andre Hunter has justifiably looked rusty since returning for Atlanta. His price tag is tantalizing because his athleticism is the best among the forwards on his team, but I am good being too late than too early on his breakout fantasy game of the season against Denver’s defense.
Power Forward
Stud
Pascal Siakam is the chalk I am locking into my lineups. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the four, plus he’s the top overall play on DraftKings. Anunoby also has power forward and center eligibility on DraftKings.
Value
Markieff Morris has played at least 27 minutes in two of three games this week, and is a lock for another larger workload for the Lakers. Los Angeles is still hurting at forward and it is difficult to trust any other player besides Kuzma with big minutes at either forward spot. Morris is an ideal player to pair with Siakam on FanDuel at $4,400, and is expected to have lower ownership than all but one player priced above him.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon is priced to play at $6,300 on FanDuel and is expected to carry high ownership.
John Collins is priced between the big guns and players such as Gordon on DraftKings and should be overlooked. His matchup against Denver is (again) challenging, but it is one way to attempt to be unique with fewer options.
Only three players with power forward eligibility have positive Plus/Minus projections.
Center
Stud
No surprise that Nikola Jokic has the best matchup using Opponent Plus/Minus or that he leads the position in Pro Trends with 11 on FanDuel and 10 on DraftKings. He is also the only player above $8,000 on either site that I will roster.
My favorite pivot is Montrezl Harrell against Orlando. The game total is the lowest of the three, but that also means defensive stats are in play. Harrell has one game in the month of March where he did not record a steal or block and he has scored 20-plus points in four of the past five games.
Value
Jusuf Nurkic is intriguing because he played 18 minutes in his first game back from a fractured wrist and strained calf. He is the clear choice in Portland when he can play a full workload.
Marc Gasol is a dart throw with Orlando’s center situation in flux now that Wendell Carter Jr. is expected to play. He is $3,900 on FanDuel if you choose to play him.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter still has double-double upside as long as Nurkic has limited minutes. The duo are top plays on both sites against Toronto.
Chris Boucher and Aron Baynes are bad enough that Siakam is getting enough minutes at center to make them both irrelevant. It is also telling that Anunoby has center eligibility.
Clint Capela is a no-go for me against Jokic, which means he will go off. You are welcome in advance.
