The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s slate features six games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
There are two players to target at two different spectrums of pricing: Damian Lillard and Kevin Porter Jr. Porter has wonky position eligibility across FanDuel and DraftKings but pops as a must play (chalk) at point guard on DraftKings. The question that must be asked if whether Porter can continue his hot play against a Celtics team that guards the position well.
At $5,000, Porter annihilates the FantasyLabs Projected Plus/Minus and Points Per Salary categories and should be the highest owned player on the slate. The second-highest projected player in terms of ownership is Damian Lillard.
Dame has the highest overall projected fantasy point production across both platforms against a weak Timberwolves squad. Portland has the third highest team total, while the game has the highest projected total, according to our Vegas Model.
Value
Jaylen Nowell’s minutes are not dependent of Ricky Rubio and has seen nearly equal playing time as his teammate. The Trail Blazers have been poor defensively all season and Nowell has averaged over 0.90 points per minute in his role. He has point guard and shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings and is not expected to carry above five percent ownership. He is an affordable $3,600 on FanDuel and is the second-rated point guard, according to our NBA Model.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry is in a great spot against the Chicago Bulls, because Coby White is not a threat defensively and Toronto is expected to be without at least four players due to COVID-19 protocol. I like him as a pivot off of Lillard as the high-priced chalk.
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The top-rated point guard on FanDuel is Ricky Rubio, which is not a surprise with Nowell rating well in the same game. The top-rated point guard on DraftKings is Tomas Satoransky. There was a report late Saturday that Satoransky would be moved to the starting lineup. Expect a spike in ownership with Satoransky an affordable $3,500 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings.
The Houston Rockets are as bad of a team lately, short of Porter. John Wall will not play, making this game a true blowout concern. This could limit Kemba Walker and multiple Celtics’ players ceilings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shooting guard continues to be feast or famine and pricing has reflected as much. Paul George is once again priced below the top tier options and sticks out as the familiar name to target. Kevin Porter Jr. is going to get rostered on DraftKings as a two to open point guard options, so a player like George in a plus matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans is on the table. He is the top-rated shooting guard option on FanDuel and a top five play on DraftKings.
Value
Gary Trent is $4,900 on both sites and is in a game where pace and scoring will be high. Lou Williams is scoring for the Los Angeles Clippers and has seen over 20 minutes of play regularly. The Clippers have the second-highest projected team total. One thing to watch if you follow total is the drop in the game total for Clippers-Pelicans. It has dropped four points since it opened and if the total keeps dipping, it may be okay to limit your Clippers exposure. As a sub-$5,000 option, Williams could be your single play from the game if things continue to project downward.
Fast Break
Norman Powell might be the breakout player of the season and should see Zach LaVine as his assignment on both ends of the court. Look for Powell to bounce back after his worst fantasy output in more than two weeks.
Victor Oladipo should be the focal point offensively for the Houston Rockets against Boston. That is good and bad. Expect a lot of shots from the free agent to be and get a lot of attention from Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown.
Small Forward
Stud
I will gladly take the savings, with rostering Kawhi Leonard over Jimmy Butler. Leonard is projected to score 2.9 fewer FanDuel points than Butler and is $1,000 cheaper.
Value
Jake Layman has done enough to warrant 25-plus minutes for the Timberwolves and should continue to see the court with Minnesota trying to get any rotation to stick and play well.
Kenyon Martin Jr. is going to be one of the G-League players Houston looks to get significant playing time as the NBA trade deadline comes and goes. Martin is minimum priced on FanDuel and has double-double upside.
Fast Break
If you are heavy on Clippers, run it back with Brandon Ingram. He pops on FanDuel as the best play for New Orleans.
Danilo Gallinari has scored at least 26 fantasy points in three consecutive contests, and possesses a position-leading 96 percent Leverage Score on DraftKings. Atlanta’s wing depth has reappeared, which has not affected Gallinari under interim head coach Nate McMillan.
That Hawks wing depth will be tasked with guarding Larry Nance Jr. He played more than 28 minutes in his return from a fractured finger. He is not projected to touch double-digit ownership and might get overlooked with Cleveland projected to score 108.75 points.
Power Forward
Stud
As long as the stitches Chris Boucher received Saturday do not keep him out of Toronto’s lineup, he is in a smash spot. I would be hard-pressed to not have him in nearly every FanDuel lineup. He is a top-three overall play there.
Jayson Tatum is my favorite Celtics play against Houston, but he is $900 more than Zion Williamson on DraftKings. His ownership should be depressed there while being closer to 20% on FanDuel.
Value
It is much easier to pay down at power forward on DraftKings, with Larry Nance Jr., Kenyon Martin Jr., and Jake Layman available at the position.
Fast Break
I like Carmelo Anthony against Minnesota’s unpredictable forward rotation. He is also in a dead spot of pricing on DraftKings at $5,100 and should be overlooked.
Melo’s teammate Robert Covington has been in my player pool each night Portland plays as the unsexy name that can put up 40-plus points without paying up. He is my favorite play in a small $6,000 range on both sites.
John Collins is only $5,900 on FanDuel and seems like a pricing mistake. It is not as he has failed to hit his expected fantasy point projections in four straight and seven of his last ten contests. Buyer beware.
Center
Stud
Karl Anthony-Towns is the top overall play on DraftKings and the second-best overall option on FanDuel. KAT is expected to dwarf ownership on DraftKings because of other players with dual position eligibility and sits atop FanDuel ownership projections with Nikola Vucevic and Kelly Olynyk.
Value
Aron Baynes might be my favorite pay down option at any position. Wendell Carter Jr. has severely regressed as a defender for Chicago and any big he faces is almost certain to get whatever they want offensively. I do not necessarily see this slate as a two-center lineup play but Baynes helps make that a possibility as a double-double is easy to project for him.
Fast Break
Using Opponent Plus/Minus, Enes Kanter has the best matchup among centers. He is an excellent pivot in the Portland-Minnesota game.
Robert Williams could be the center that Boston uses in garbage time assuming Tristan Thompson and Daniel Theis start. Williams still has the best long-term upside down low for the Celtics.
In a fun matchup of bigs I expect Clint Capela to outscore Jarrett Allen in the Hawks-Cavaliers game. Both are strong leverage plays just below the elite priced centers.
