NBA DFS Breakdown (Sunday, Jan. 31): Irving, Durant Highlight Top Plays On Limited Card

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Sunday’s slate features four games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

The point-guard position is led by a heavyweight battle between Russell Westbrook and Kyrie Irving. Despite the teams going in opposite directions, the two remain at the top of pricing on FanDuel and DraftKings with Irving projected to have slightly more ownership according to our NBA model. Irving is a top-three play at the position on FanDuel and top five on DraftKings. His ownership and usage could increase if James Harden (thigh contusion) misses the game.

Tonight’s Wizards-Nets game has the highest projected point total by 20 points, according to the FantasyLabs Vegas Model.

Value

Darius Garland is priced under $6,000 on both sites despite usage more than 20 percent in four of his five games since returning from injury. Collin Sexton will continue to be the primary shooter among the two guards, but if ‘Sexland’ is hitting, Garland will accumulate secondary stats. Garland’s fantasy point production has increased in every game in his return.

Fast Break

Kyle Lowry is the top point guard on both sites, according to our NBA Model. His shooting has been off the past few games but that can change for any player in a hurry. Lowry is not a superstar point guard, but is a pivot option from Irving and Westbrook.

Malcolm Brogdon and Ben Simmons are priced in between the previously mentioned names and have higher rating than Westbrook among the top priced point guards. Brogdon leads the position with 11 FanDuel and 10 DraftKings Pro Trends.

Shake Milton and Fred Van Vleet are the top Bargain Rating point guards on DraftKings.

Shooting Guard

Stud

James Harden is a top Leverage player as the top priced shooting guard on DraftKings and second highest-priced two on FanDuel behind Bradley Beal. Harden’s availability will drive ownership towards Beal or a couple other options I will touch on shortly. The Nets should dominate the Wizards and control the ball; Harden has a 2.8 Pace Differential (PaceD) compared to Beal’s -2.8, meaning Brooklyn plays at a higher tempo compared to Washington. Expected? Yes, but if touches are one of the final factors when deciding between the two, Harden has a distinct advantage.

Value

Seth Curry has been cold from three since returning from COVID and dealing with an ankle injury. He gets the Minnesota Timberwolves in what could be a get-right game. Curry has a top five Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a top 10 Opponent Plus/Minus matchup. The 76ers-Pacers game has the second highest projected point total on the evening.

Teammate Shake Milton also stands to benefit from their matchup. Milton has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Evan Fournier and Collin Sexton have top Leverage and Opponent Plus/Minus lines on DraftKings. Fournier will have his hands full with Van Vleet, but is $800 cheaper and can get scorching hot as a shooter. Sexton has a plus matchup against Minnesota’s Malik Beasley.

If James Harden is out, Bruce Brown becomes a salary-saving option and could see plenty of minutes if the Nets blow out the Wizards.

Fred Van Vleet is an excellent story and continues to be an excellent fantasy player. He has topped his FantasyLabs projection in four consecutive games and seven of his last 10 appearances.

Small Forward

Stud

Kevin Durant is the only expensive small forward on either site today.

Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are also in play towards the top of pricing on DraftKings, with Simmons having a 98% Bargain Rating. Pascal Siakam is the top small forward option on FanDuel and has a dominant 7.95 Projected Plus Minus, third best among all players.

Value

Taurean Prince failed to meet his projected fantasy output for just the second time this month during Cleveland’s loss to New York Friday. A lot of Prince’s value has come with Larry Nance Jr. out, but Prince has solidified his role in the Cavs rotation. Nance did not play well in his return, leaving an opening for Prince to have value on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Justin Holiday may have one more game to produce before Jeremy Lamb renders him as fantasy fodder. Holiday played 37 minutes in Lamb’s return to the starting lineup. He is a top-two play on both sites.

Yuta Watanabe gets a DraftKings bump with OG Anunoby out and Norman Powell doubtful for Toronto. He had his best performance of the season with both out Friday, and should see another 20-plus minutes in this contest. He is projected to have less than 10 percent ownership and is $300 above minimum price.

Aaron Gordon is a small forward on DraftKings and has a chance to bounce back against a so-so defensive Raptors frontcourt.

Power Forward

Stud

Damontas Sabonis is the only upper tier power forward on the slate and might avoid minutes against Joel Embiid because of a back injury. Sabonis is a mismatch of Tobias Harris and/or Dwight Howard. Sabonis is tied with Aaron Gordon in Projected Ownership (41+) and Pro Trends among power forwards on FanDuel.

Value

Beyond Gordon ($5,500 on FanDuel), Davis Bertans is a top-two play on both sites. The typically sharp-shooting four struggled in his return from COVID-19, but played 25 minutes. The drawback to Bertans’ matchup against the Nets is a blowout. If the Nets pull away as expected, Bertans’ minutes could be capped to prevent him from tiring too quickly because of the condensed scheduling of the season.

Fast Break

Jarred Vanderbilt is a top Leverage play on both sites and has seen over 20 minutes of action in five consecutive contests. He is not expected to crack double-digit ownership and is priced under $6,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings.

The emergence of Aron Bynes has capped Chris Boucher’s upside and makes him a risky play at best against Orlando. Bynes will be asked to play more against a team with physicality and athleticism at the four and five.

Jeff Green is a cheap source of production priced under $5,000 despite a capped ceiling. He continues to see a lot of playing time and can be an excellent source of cheap scoring on FanDuel with two power forward positions available.

Center

Stud

Ownership between Joel Embiid, Nikola Vucevic, and Andre Drummond is projected to be flat on FanDuel. I prefer the perpetually underrated Vucevic as the middle-priced center of the trio, but Drummond has the best matchup in terms of Opponent’s Projected Plus/Minus. No one is confusing Minnesota’s Naz Reid with teammate Karl-Anthony Towns. Reid is also questionable with a wrist injury.

Value

Aron Baynes is a top-three rated center on DraftKings, and is expected to have under five percent ownership on FanDuel. The potential of absence of Embiid also makes Dwight Howard a value.

Fast Break

Myles Turner would be in play if Embiid is out. I am firmly in the ‘”Not Interested” camp if Embiid suits up against Indiana.

Domantas Sabonis has center eligibility on DraftKings.

Rising tides lift all boats, and DeAndre Jordan continues to put of 20-plus fantasy points in limited minutes. He is the second-best play on FanDuel according to our NBA Model.