NBA DFS Breakdown (Sunday, Jan. 10): Ride Heat Standouts Against Roster-Thin Celtics

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Sunday’s slate features an six-game card, scheduled to start at 6 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

Steph Curry is trending as the only elite point guard to play on the Sunday slate. Kyrie Irving is questionable (personal) and represents the only high-priced pivot off Curry. That said, Curry and the Warriors have been a different team from the one that started the campaign. Aside from one poor performance, Curry has been playing like he is not coming off injury, including a masterful 38 points in a comeback win over the Clippers two days ago.

His usage is top 10 this season and should remain there with depth concerns at the guard position with the Warriors. He is a top-five PG play, according to FantasyLabs projections.

Value

Dejounte Murray is underpriced considering Derrick White is now expected to miss 4 to 6 weeks with his nagging toe injury. In the six games Murray has played at least 30 minutes, he has scored at least 30 FanDuel points on five occasions. Murray has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among point guards. The Spurs-Wolves game has the highest implied-game total as well.

Fast Break

The Lakers continue to play the “game-time decision” game with LeBron James and Anthony Davis (and a few others), so why not continue to let Dennis Schroder play a prominent role? Schroder has taken at least 10 shots in each game this season and has enough of a rebound/assist floor to flirt with 30 fantasy points per game. I will take that from the 13^th-priced point guard on Sunday’s slate.

I like Jamal Murray against the Knicks, but his knock this season is a lack of consistency. He has alternated dud and stud performances over his past four games, which means he is due for a stud game if we are playing that game.

I also like Elfrid Payton the other way in this game because he has been a consistent option as a sub-$6,000 play on FanDuel. He is the top-rated point guard by our projections.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Where were you when you faded James Harden for Caris LeVert? This might be a moot point with Kevin Durant probable and Irving questionable to play for Brooklyn, but it is safe to say that LeVert has made himself indispensable as a starter or sixth man. Despite a questionable rebounding floor, LeVert has hit five assists in seven of 10 games and has 20 or more points in three consecutive games. LeVert is not rated well again, so that means he will outperform projections.

If you are riding down Narrative Street, Harden will want to put on a show against James and the Lakers. The top two options at shooting guard are near no-brainers.

Value

Marcus Smart is $6,300 on FanDuel and that is a value. He has scored at least 25 FanDuel points in every game since Boston’s season opener and is the best scoring threat in the Celtics guard rotation not named Jaylen Brown. Jayson Tatum is expected to be out because of health protocols, so expect Brown (if healthy) and Smart to get a lot of looks.

Fast Break

Gary Harris is riding a three-game double-digit scoring streak. Harris is a streaky scorer, but with teammate Jamal Murray up and down himself, Harris is a top 10 bargain at shooting guard and gets a Knicks team that allows a top 10 Projected Plus/Minus to opposing shooting guards.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the position with 15 Pro Trends and faces the Brooklyn Nets. If SGA is not scoring, this game could get ugly.

Small Forward

Stud

Jimmy Butler is the only elite player at the position that does not have a question mark attached to his playing status tonight. Kevin Durant is probable (COVID-19), but until he is active, I am sticking with Butler. Butler is tied with LeBron James and R.J. Barrett as the top Leverage plays at the position. Butler is a top five play using Opponent’s Plus/Minus and projects to be the lowest owned of the high-priced players. It is realistic a “Create A Player” will have to guard Butler.

Value

Kelly Oubre has been the definition of frustrating with Golden State through 10 games. One of the best leverage plays on the slate is his teammate Kent Bazemore. Bazemore has outscored Oubre in each of the last two games and had a 14 FanDuel point floor when Oubre put up 30-plus the two games before that. There is plenty of value at other positions that make paying down for Bazemore acceptable.

Fast Break

Durant and James will be in my player pool and pair well with Bazemore to get exposure to the elite talent while allowing for flexibility at other positions.

Keldon Johnson rebounded well after being asked to guard LeBron James two games prior. I like him to repeat his 30-fantasy point performance against the T’Wolves tonight.

Power Forward

Stud

Julius Randle gets a weak Nuggets frontcourt tonight. He is $800 cheaper than Anthony Davis (game-time decision – hip) and falls two FanDuel points behind him in Ceiling projections.

Value

Kelly Olynyk faces Boston in a revenge game. He has scored 26-plus FanDuel points, eclipsing 25 minutes in four of his last five games. Olynyk is a top-three bargain at the position.

Fast Break

The Raptors have a good problem at power forward. Pascal Siakam and Chris Boucher have been great without cannibalizing each other’s value on a nightly basis. Siakam is the better overall rated player, but Boucher is a top-two power forward Leverage play.

LaMarcus Aldridge is the top-rated player at the position, but is a defensive minus and that makes Juan Hernangomez and/or Naz Reid cheap pivots. Reid has been the better of the two over the past couple of games. Both stand to get theirs against the seasoned veteran.

If Anthony Davis is out, Kyle Kuzma will see his ownership skyrocket against Houston. It may not be good chalk with Christian Wood on the other side.

Center

Stud

We saw Nikola Jokic almost neutralized by Joel Embiid Saturday, failing to break 40 fantasy points for the first time this season. That should change tonight as Mitchell Robinson will be asked to play away from the basket more than usual against Jokic. He should have a huge game.

Value

Al Horford does not present the highest ceiling at the position at this stage in his career, but he will be counted on to score for Oklahoma City against the Nets. He is FantasyLabs’ top rated center on the card.

Fast Break

Jake Poeltl would be the top center value if he was not competing against Karl Anthony-Towns. If KAT is playing in the second of Minnesota’s back-to-back games, he should flirt with 50-plus FanDuel points.

Like Olynyk, Bam Adebayo could play well against a shorthanded Celtics team. He is a top-five center in expected, ceiling and floor projections.

Jarrett Allen is the top Leverage play at center against Horford and the Thunder. He is seeing the most minutes between DeAndre Jordan and himself, and is a plus defender. Allen is also shooting the ball well at the free-throw line, seeing at least six attempts each game over the past week.