NBA DFS Breakdown (Sunday, Feb. 7): Westbrook, Beal, Leonard Headline Top Plays

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Sunday’s slate features five games, scheduled to start at 1 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

Russell Westbrook is looking to shake off a subpar performance Friday, in which he scored his third-fewest points in a game this season. At $8,900 on DraftKings, he is one of the top bargains on the slate according to the FantasyLabs NBA Model. Westbrook also has a Leverage Rating over 85% on FanDuel and DraftKings. Westbrook has a fun matchup against the Charlotte Hornets that I will get into more shortly.

Value

Kendrick Nunn will get the start for Miami against the New York Knicks. Goran Dragic (ankle) has already been ruled out for today’s game. In the three games where Nunn’s usage tops 25 percent, his fantasy point production has been at least 38 on FanDuel and 39 on DraftKings. His ownership projection is in the mid-teens, but could top 20 percent effortlessly.

Fast Break

Terry Rozier and LaMelo Ball get the opportunity to feast on Russell Westbrook’s poor defensive game. Westbrook ranks 171^st out of 185 eligible players in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, according to Basketball Reference. Five point guards rank lower than Westbrook on that list, and one is a reserve. Rozier is the top point-guard play on DraftKings and top three on FanDuel. Ball is top 10 on both sites.

Kemba Walker pops as the No. 2 point guard on FanDuel after his minutes spiked due to injuries across Boston’s backcourt. He has scored over one fantasy point per minute in his past two contests, both of which saw him play 30-plus minutes. Walker’s 8.06 Projected Plus/Minus is the second highest among all players on FanDuel.

Shooting Guard

Stud

No Paul George makes Bradley Beal the only elite-priced two on the slate. Beal is also coming off a poor performance, his worst of the season in which he failed to top 35 fantasy points on either site. Like Westbrook, his lack of defensive prowess (167^th ranked DBPM) makes him a target in the opposite direction. The Hornets can guard and will present some problems for Beal, but I expect a much better performance from him. The Hornets and Wizards are projected to have the highest-scoring contest, according to the FantasyLabs Vegas Model.

Value

Terance Mann is in line for the biggest minutes boost among Clippers shooting guards with George out. He is $200 above minimum price, and could be the dart throw that opens options at other positions.

If Mann is too risky for you, Jordan Clarkson is $5,000 on FanDuel and the best overall play of the day. He is a top four shooting guard on DraftKings based on our model.

Fast Break

Terry Rozier has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings if you want to double dip the Hornets backcourt. The two can be played at the multiple point guard slots on FanDuel.

If you can stomach higher ownership of Donovan Mitchell, he is very much in play at Indiana today. Clarkson is the pivot among the Jazz guards, but Mitchell is coming off his best three-game fantasy output in two weeks.

Malik Monk and Cody Martin get boosts without Devonte’ Graham in the lineup. The two combines for a FanDuel salary of $8,000 and $7,600 on DraftKings.

Big fan of Devin Booker today with Boston’s backcourt hurting. Might have to have a word with Justin Phan about his Booker projection.

Small Forward

Stud

Kawhi Leonard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among small forwards on both sites. He also is the second highest bargain on DraftKings despite being the most expensive option at the three.

Value

Teammate Nicolas Batum may be the sneakiest play at small forward on FanDuel, because he is expected to match up against Kings PF/C Marvin Bagley III. Bagley has the worst DPBM in the league. Batum is a small forward on both sites and a power forward on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Jimmy Butler is probable with a left foot contusion. Despite a strong Leverage score his matchup against RJ Barrett is going to be a difficult one. Both players should be projected to finish below their projected fantasy outputs.

Power Forward

Stud

Jayson Tatum is going to carry the scoring load for Boston today and gets to square off against Frank Kaminsky. As good as Kaminsky has been this season, he’s not in the same stratosphere athletically as Tatum. He has a top-three Ceiling on both sites, and is a pivot from Domantas Sabonis.

Speaking of Sabonis, I have no idea what to do with him because of Rudy Gobert. I do not expect Jazz power forward Royce O’Neale to handle the defensive duties against Sabonis, potentially causing a drastic change in Sabonis’s median projections.

Value

Power forward is a position I want to pay up, but if I play anyone it will be Marcus Morris of the Clippers. He is a top-10 play and has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus on both sites.

Fast Break

Davis Bertans is getting a lot of love from our models, but if he is not hitting shots, he is a dud. With Washington desperate for scoring options from the frontcourt, look for Bertans to launch double-digit shots.

If Kelly Olynyk is going to be asked to guard Julius Randle, lock Randle into your lineups. Randle projects as a better play on FanDuel.

Center

Stud

Rudy Gobert is the stud. He has had two difficult matchups this week and performed well in both and should have his way with Myles Turner on the offensive end. At $7,300 on DraftKings, he is a steal.

Value

Ivica Zubac on FanDuel and Serge Ibaka on DraftKings offer salary savings against a poor Kings defense. The Kings allow an Opponent Plus/Minus over four to frontcourts.

Fast Break

Richaun Holmes has a negative matchup against Zubac and Ibaka, but has been the clear center option in Sacramento. His Bargain Rating is over 90% on both sites and his Leverage score is over 90% on FanDuel.

The Wizards are cycling players at the five and have little consistency there. Cody Zeller of the Charlotts Hornets pops on FanDuel for that reason and is the top center play. He is a top-10 option on DraftKings.