The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s slate features nine games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic. Damian Lillard. Hopefully, your Valentine’s Day plans are finished prior to tipoff of the Portland-Dallas showdown. I love Doncic, as he runs away with the highest projection, floor and ceiling using the FantasyLabs NBA Model. He also has the best Projected Plus/Minus among point guards, including a massive 12.25 projection on DraftKings. Lillard makes for an excellent pivot as he falls directly behind Doncic in those same categories. This game also has the highest projected game total and two of the top-five team totals, according to our Vegas Model.
Value
San Antonio has been running out three point guards with a healthy Derrick White available. As good as Dejounte Murray has been with White out, his playing time has decreased with his return and the consistent production of veteran Patty Mills. Pairing White or Mills with Doncic or Lillard will help alleviate some salary concerns with paying up at the position. White is a top-three play on FanDuel and top 10 on DraftKings (along with Murray). Mills’ $3,700 price tag on FanDuel has him just outside the top 10 among point guards.
Fast Break
Ja Morant has performed better, as his price tag has dropped on both sites. He is the top-rated point guard and No. 2 overall play on FanDuel today.
Chris Paul will match up against Michael Carter-Williams and the Orlando Magic. Carter-Williams is the only true point guard healthy for the Magic, making Paul a top-three Leverage play.
If De’Aaron Fox misses another game, Tyrese Haliburton would slot as one of my must-play point guards. Our model is rightfully not locked in to that thought, because Fox has been the straw that stirs the drink for Sacramento, but Haliburton’s athleticism pops each game and he stepped in admirably at the one Friday.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Threes are wild at the two Sunday. Take advantage of DeMar DeRozan at the two on FanDuel. He is the top shooting guard on FanDuel, comes in with 11 ProTrends, and has the best opponent matchup using Opponent Plus/Minus. He is the third-highest priced shooting guard on FanDuel.
On DraftKings, the third priciest two us Khris Middleton. He ranks atop the position on DraftKings and has eligibility at small forward as well. Middleton also projects to have the most ownership as Milwaukee heads to Oklahoma City to face the shorthanded Thunder.
Value
Grayson Allen of the Grizzlies has scored in double digits in each of his past three games and has attempted at least 10 three-pointers in consecutive games. He is a top play on DraftKings, priced at $4,300.
Fast Break
At only $500 more than Middleton on DraftKings, Fred Van Vleet projects to have up to 20 percent less ownership. He has a 94% Leverage Score on DraftKings and a plus matchup against a weak defensive unit in Minnesota.
Taking a trip to Sexland is strong play against a Paul George-less Los Angeles Clippers squad. Collin Sexton leads the position with 12 ProTrends on FanDuel.
It may be time to be on “R.J. Hampton Value Watch” as he enters the Denver Nuggets rotation. The 24th overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft has played no less than 16 minutes in each of the past four games and is contributing to every category in DFS. He is listed as a point guard on both sites and has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Stud
If you decide not to pay up for LeBron James or Kawhi Leonard, Gordon Hayward is the play. He is the top small forward on FanDuel and is sixth in Fantasy Points Per Minute at the position. Hayward should see a lot of Keldon Johnson, who is not a defensive commodity. Hayward also has a True Shooting Percentage of 59.8%, which is excellent considering his ability to shoot from anywhere.
If you are paying up at small forward, Kawhi Leonard is the better rated option and is at risk of sitting tomorrow with tonight’s game the first of a back-to-back.
Value
Dorian Finney-Smith has played well on Dallas’s second unit and is a threat for 20-plus fantasy points on both sites against the defensively inept Portland Trail Blazers. An extremely contrarian team stack with Josh Richardson (0.73 Correlation Score) is also in play if you want to save at the three or play multiple lineups and do not mind punting the position.
Fast Break
Michael Porter Jr. rates well on both sites but is a tough sell with a matchup against LeBron James. Despite the questionable designation, James is probable and has been on an offensive tear.
Another player I am down on despite projections is Jerami Grant. He will see the more athletic Brandon Ingram who will almost certainly keep Grant busy on both ends of the court. If Josh Hart is out for New Orleans, Grant is a slightly better play because the Pelicans are thin at the three. Detroit could also go small and play Grant at the four to try to get Grant a better matchup. Ingram rates out better defensively than teammate Zion Williamson.
Miles Bridges ($5,100) is small forward eligible on DraftKings and will go for his fifth straight double-double against San Antonio.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is in a smash spot against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Bucks are tied for the highest team total and Antetokounmpo is the top-rated power forward on both sites. Prayers up to Darius Bazley and anyone guarding him.
Value
Maxi Kleber is a sub-$4,000 FanDuel play with a projection over 21 fantasy points. Having to play two players at the four makes him an easy savings and a big who is not afraid to shoot from deep.
Rudy Gay could see an influx of minutes if Keldon Johnson has troubles with Gordon Hayward and the Hornets. He is one of the higher rated fours on both sites and is below $5,000.
Miles Bridges is listed at power forward on both sites.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam against Minnesota is where it is at on DraftKings. He is the seventh-priced power forward and eighth-priced center and is a top-five play at both positions.
The potential return of OG Anunoby could push Chris Boucher’s minutes below 20, a major concern if Raptors head coach Nick Nurse goes back to his original starting lineup. Norman Powell’s recent surge in production will also be important to watch. More on Boucher momentarily.
Nicolas Batum is a salary-saving four if Serge Ibaka plays more center against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Ibaka would have his issues guarding Andre Drummond but is a better defensive assignment for the big than Ivica Zubac. Batum’s minutes could increase with Ibaka being asked to play a more defensive role at center.
Center
Stud
Can the Los Angeles Lakers contain Nikola Jokic for a second time in 10 days? That matters when building lineups today because center is loaded.
The best overall play on both sites according to our NBA Model is Jonas Valanciunas against Sacramento. He has exceeded his projections in each of his four games since returning and has the best center matchup on DraftKings. Valanciunas is priced well below the elite options and will see a spike in ownership, but he is worth it.
Value
Jakob Poeltl has a plus matchup against the Charlotte Hornets. He is the top center play under $6,000, with opponent Cody Zeller the next best option.
Fast Break
Chris Boucher and Aron Baynes will be expected to slow down Karl Anthony-Towns. Towns has shot at least 50% in two games since returning from COVID-19 and has hit seven three-pointers. Boucher is overpriced for the assignment, and Baynes is a non-starter in DFS.
Enes Kanter has a double-double in nine of ten games with the only game without one against Nikola Vucevic and the Orlando Magic. Kanter is a top two play on FanDuel and Vucevic is always in play with his usage.
Al Horford has an okay matchup against Brook Lopez and the Bucks, but his value has been as a facilitator with no healthy point guard for the Thunder. Horford is a threat for 30 fantasy points without needed a double-double bonus to get there.
