The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s slate features five games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Luka Dončić is great and could be on triple-double watch. However, you knew he was good and is always in play as your top point guard.
Kyle Lowry is in a smash spot against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Raptors are 11.5-point favorites against what is left of the Thunder and have no one that can slow down Lowry at point guard. Point guard is thin, with Damian Lillard and John Wall out, so not only does Lowry save you salary ($3,400 less than Dončić on FanDuel), but he’s the top-rated player at the position on FanDuel.
Value
The Orlando Magic backcourt of Cole Anthony and R.J. Hampton stick out on DraftKings and FanDuel. They get the Wall-less Rockets and cost less than $9,000 on FanDuel and $10,000 on DraftKings. Hampton has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings and will not clog your all-encompassing guard position. Both teams are playing out the stretch and want to see their younger players on the court, and both teams are not good, keeping Anthony and Hampton locked in the Magic rotation.
Fastbreak
Terry Rozier has stepped up in a big way with injuries littered throughout the Hornets roster. He leads all point guards with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Anfernee Simons saw nearly 30 minutes on the court with Lillard out Friday. He also logged stats in all five DFS categories against a Spurs team with two excellent point guards. A repeat performance is in play against the Hornets.
The Minnesota Timberwolves cannot guard guards. Reggie Jackson has been solid is one of the few Clippers that is locked in to play (do not trust the Clippers injury report). If Kawhi Leonard ends up missing their game, Jackson’s usage could top 20% for the fourth time in six games.
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Shooting Guard
Stud
CJ McCollum and Paul George are the alphas for their teams, sitting atop the NBA Model projections at shooting guard. George is going to cost you more on both sites, so it depends on if you want to pay less for McCollum. If so, McCollum is $1,900 less than George on FanDuel and only $600 cheaper on DraftKings. George and the Clippers have the highest projected team total in the game with the highest overall total.
Value
Terrance Ross is the top rated shooting guard on FanDuel, but there is concern that his floor is as attainable as his ceiling with the Magic playing the kids and focusing on their development. Ross carries value in a real basketball sense but may be limited for DFS. There should be plenty of scoring between Houston and Orlando, and Ross has one of the better matchups using Opponent Plus/Minus.
Fastbreak
Norman Powell has exceeded projections in three consecutive games, and had his best fantasy point production Friday in almost two weeks without Lillard. Only teammate Anfernee Simons has a better Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings.
Devonta Graham has attempted at least 12 3-pointers in four consecutive games. In three of those games, all of his field goals made were from behind the arc. The Trail Blazers allow opponents to shoot 37.2% from three, which is the 11th most in the league.
Small Forward
Stud
If you are not playing Kawhi Leonard roulette, Kevin Porter Jr. is listed at small forward on FanDuel. He is the most dynamic player on Houston not named John Wall, and he has gelled with Christian Wood since his return from injury. Porter’s top correlation score is with Wood (0.21) and both should have solid production against Orlando.
Value
James Ennis has played well with Chuma Okeke and Wendell Carter Jr. in the new-look Magic frontcourt. He is wildly volatile with majority of the Magic players healthy, but I feel his athleticism and ability to get hot from three is worth a dart throw at $4,700 on DraftKings.
Fastbreak
Lu Dortz has 51 shot attempts in his last two games. I would expect a healthy amount of OG Anunoby against Dortz, which probably means less fantasy production. Dortz does have an excellent Leverage score and Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Miles Bridges is too cheap on FanDuel at $6,600 and leads the position with nine Pro Trends. I am surprised to see him not projected to have higher ownership, so add to him to the player pool against the defense inept Trail Blazers.
Power Forward
Stud
The trio of Kristaps Porzingis, Christian Wood, and Pascal Siakam are difficult to pass up and choose from with all three having plus matchups. Wood has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among the three, Porzingis is projected to score the most fantasy points, and Siakam is kind of left in the dust. He is sandwiched between the other two and could see slightly less ownership, but his flexibility to play three positions and run the point in a pinch gives him a spacing and opportunity advantage.
Value
Khem Birch has fit in with the Raptors and allows Siakam to be a mismatch at small forward. Birch can contribute in all five categories and hits the occasional three as well. He is also a lock for 20-plus minutes a game, making Aron Baynes expendable. The Thunder have little resistance for Birch and Chris Boucher. Birch is a center on DraftKings.
Fastbreak
Harrison Barnes has had a rough shooting stretch this week, but gets to play his former team in Dallas. He tops the position in Pro Trends on both sites, and has played at least 32 minutes in each game over the past month.
Maxi Kleber is a solid compliment for Doncic and Porzingis against a rigid Kings frontcourt. His ability to shoot from anywhere will space defenders, and can produce when allowed to get off a fair number of 3-point attempts. He is a top-10 play on both sites, but projects better on DraftKings.
Jae’Sean Tate is playing his best basketball in a while. Prior to player buyouts and injuries, he was locked in as the Rockets’ starting four and has returned to that role, playing at least 30 minutes in five of his last six games and has scored 28.7 fantasy points or more in four in a row.
Center
Stud
Wendell Carter Jr. is the top-rated player on both sites and has the top Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. The change of scenery has done wonders for the former Chicago Bull and he gets to face the Rockets, a team without a true defensive threat at center. Only Karl-Anthony Towns is expected to have higher ownership than Carter.
Value
Hassan Whiteside is the popular pay-down center, but I am targeting Tony Bradley of the Thunder. Bradley can play close to 20 minutes like Whiteside, plus he get blocks, can be a double-double threat and does so without getting in foul trouble. Bradley is $1,100 cheaper on FanDuel, and is listed as a power forward on DraftKings.
Fastbreak
Chris Boucher continues to be inconsistent for Toronto, and the arrival of Birch dampened expectations once Boucher usurped Baynes for playing time. This is about as good an opportunity for Boucher to maximize his size and defensive abilities. He has one of the better Leverage scores at center.
Kelly Olynyk has attempted at least three 3-pointers in every game in April and has four double-doubles this month. He is tied with Towns and Carter for most Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Towns returned from a two-game absence to put up 24 points in 25 minutes. I would expect KAT to get back to his usual playing time against the Clippers.
Moses Brown appears to be getting overlooked on this slate. He can cause trouble for Boucher and the Raptors and projects for 2-4% ownership on DraftKings.
