The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s slate features eight games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Luka Dončić is the top play among all high-priced players, plus he’s a top-five overall option on FanDuel. Dallas hosts San Antonio in a battle of Texas that features playoff implications. Dončić leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, but what’s interesting is a couple of players not far behind him.
Dejounte Murray and Derrick White check in with 97% Leverage scores or better on DraftKings, and Murray is a top Leverage option on FanDuel. The Spurs’ duo is one of the most productive backcourts in terms of fantasy and rarely cannibalize each other’s upside based on pricing. Murray and White might not be elite options, but they’re elite pivots or pairings with one of the best players in basketball.
Value
Derrick Rose has been playing more minutes than starter Elfrid Payton. The Knicks have had a healthy group of guards for the first time in a while, and Rose is still playing solid minutes despite a younger group of players surrounding him. The veteran has received at last 25 minutes and attempted double-digit shots in three consecutive games. New York hosts Toronto, with Kyle Lowry expected to play after sitting out the first of a back-to-back set.
Fastbreak
I love Darrius Garland against New Orleans. He has been a usage monster of late, plus he has scored in double digits and has made two or more three-pointers in four of five April games. Lonzo Ball is out for the Pelicans and I don’t think Kira Lewis can slow down Garland.
Coby White is the top-rated point guard on DraftKings, but I don’t think there is enough upside to pay down for him. He has played at our above his projections in three consecutive games, but is arguably the Bulls’ biggest defensive liability. That means more minutes for Tomas Satoransky.
If Giannis Antetokounmpo misses another game, Jrue Holiday will be one of the highest-rostered point guards. When Antetokounmpo has been out, Holiday sees the biggest positive difference in Projected Plus/Minus for Milwaukee and has the second-largest boost in usage behind Khris Middleton.
As always, get the latest on injuries and player transactions with the Labs Insiders Tool.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Zach LaVine is in line to torch another backcourt, as Chicago travels to Minnesota. He has the second-best matchup, based on Opponent Plus/Minus and leads shooting guards in usage.
It’s also difficult to overlook Paul George at home against Detroit. He is the top two-guard play on DraftKings and a small savings option from LaVine. Fingers crossed the Clippers don’t play bad and surprise DFS players with any unexpected scratches even with George sitting out Friday for rest.
Value
Donte DiVincenzo is not the cheapest value at just under $6,000 on both sites, but is the best value among Bucks’ players that benefit from Antetokounmpo potentially sitting. DiVincenzo is one of four shooting guards that projects to score 5.0 Points Per Salary or more on FanDuel.
Fastbreak
Collin Sexton gets the opportunity to take advantage of New Orleans’ depleted guard situation with teammate Darrius Garland. Sexton has a top five projection on DraftKings and is priced as the seventh-best two, a small value, and has seen his Fantasy Points Per Minute increase slightly over the past month. Tonight’s game could be closer to his ceiling than his median projections with Cleveland lacking upside players in the frontcourt due to injuries.
D’Angelo Russell has seen his minutes and production increase since returning this week. Like LaVine, Russell should see little resistance from the Bulls defensively and has had a higher usage rate than teammate Karl-Anthony Towns in each game since reentering the Wolves lineup.
Reggie Jackson could see another spike game with Kawhi Leonard sitting for rest purposes. I expect Paul George to be the only Clipper to out-attempt Jackson.
Small Forward
Stud
Khris Middleton and Jimmy Butler have excellent matchups and are top plays on both sites. Middleton excels without Giannis, while Butler is the Alpha in Miami and gets to face Portland. Butler has scored at least 20 points in three of the last four games and has attempted 34 free throws over that same time. The Trail Blazers have good defense close to the rim, but Butler is one of the best at getting to the rim. Both players should see elevated ownership.
Value
Marcus Morris could be the Clippers’ third scoring option against Detroit, and he could be one of the better values if Jerami Grant misses a third straight game for the Pistons. Morris is eligible at small forward on DraftKings, but is a power forward on FanDuel. Teammate Nicolas Batum rates well on FanDuel for the same reasons as Morris but has been far less consistent.
Fastbreak
Raise your hand if you would think Memphis-Indiana would have the highest projected game total this evening. Dillon Brooks may be underpriced for what he does for the Grizzlies. Over the past month, Brooks has scored double digit points and attempted double-digit shots in all but one game. The Pacers defense has dropped off a cliff this season, and while scoring is up across the NBA it is bad when your defense has allowed 100-plus points in all, but four games since the year switched to 2021. Brooks is the top small forward on DraftKings and a top-five shooting guard on FanDuel.
Brandon Ingram could get overlooked because he is sandwiched between Butler and Middleton in pricing on both sites. Ingram and Zion Williamson could be in for high-volume games against Cleveland’s wing defenders.
I hope Anthony Edwards and Patrick Williams match up in Minnesota. Edwards has been a different player the past month for Minnesota, while Williams continues to shine defensively and plays against opponents’ best players.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis has played well despite battling wrist and knee issues in the short and long term. He faces Jakob Poeltl of the Spurs and while his scoring could be down, Porzingis has contributed blocks in every April game and has a two-game double-double streak. It has also been good to see him play 30-plus minutes consistently.
Zion Williamson is also in play as the top pay-up option. He is a top-five player on both sites unlike Porzingis, and should face little resistance from the Cavaliers front court that could use Jarrett Allen (concussion).
Value
James Johnson has seen his fantasy production tail off this week, but his role with New Orleans is secure. Cleveland’s frontcourt depth is a target every night they play. Johnson is a top-10 power forward on both sites and my favorite pivot off Bobby Portis.
Fastbreak
Bobby Portis is going to have high ownership, and that is okay. He is the main benefactor of Giannis sitting. Portis has the top Projected Plus/Minus and Points Per Salary at the position.
Isaiah Hartenstein rates well in our NBA Model but has to compete with Zion Williamson. His worst recent fantasy performances have come against defensive-minded, athletic front courts — Miami and Philadelphia. New Orleans is not at their level, but Zion is a monster offensively and Steven Adams and Jaxson Hayes present size problems defensively.
Center
Stud
The top overall play on both sites is Jonas Valanciunas. The Pacers miss Myles Turner in the worst way. Damontas Sabonis is limited defensively and Goga Biatdze is well, limited. Valanciunas has the best matchup using Opponent Plus/Minus.
Karl-Anthony Towns does not rate as well, but he has scored at least 50 fantasy points in nine consecutive contests and one rule that we must follow is playing centers against the Chicago Bulls.
Value
Enes Kanter broke Saturday’s NBA slate, but he did so because Jusuf Nurkic did not play. If Nurkic is in, I want him against Miami because his ownership is expected to be miniscule compared to Kanter’s on DraftKings.
Fastbreak
The emergence of Mo Bamba in the Magic rotation has put a damper on Wendell Carter Jr., but I also believe that has more to do with Carter getting more play against top centers. I think Bamba, Carter, and their opponent Brook Lopez could all top 20 fantasy points and represent top 10 plays across both platforms.
Damontas Sabonis is projected to have the lowest ownership among the top-priced center options on DraftKings. He played okay in his return from a three-game absence, but I am concerned that he is going to be asked to do too much defensively, thus zapping some of his effectiveness on the offensive end of the court. He shot poorly Friday, but was able to get to the free-throw line for 12 attempts. Over the past month, Sabonis’s DraftKings salary has dropped $1,200 on the number.
