The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a four-game slate starting at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
There’s a lot to like with Kyle Lowry on today’s slate. The Raptors are coming off a whopping 134 points in their first postseason game, and their implied team total of 118.5 is the top mark of the day. Lowry scored 37.25 DraftKings points on Monday despite shooting just 3-of-14 (21.4%) from the field. Lowry isn’t exactly a top-end shooter – he shot 41.6% during the regular season – but that still leaves him plenty of room for improvement today.
Value
Patrick Beverley stands out as one of the best values at just $3,500 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%. He was limited to just 20.4 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Mavericks due to foul trouble. He should see a bump in playing time today – he’s currently projected for 27.4 minutes in our NBA Models – and he’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings point per minute in the bubble.
Beverley is in a great spot vs. the Mavericks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.60 on DraftKings. The Clippers’ implied team total of 118.25 is also just slightly behind the Raptors’ mark on today’s slate.
Fast Break
The Celtics were dealt a big blow on Monday, losing Gordon Hayward to an injury. While that isn’t great for their long-term prospects, it will create a little value with the rest of their roster in DFS.
With that in mind, Kemba Walker is a very strong option at $6,700. Walker has seen a slight usage bump with Hayward off the court this season, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.72 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Jamal Murray went absolutely nuclear in his last game, and he’s averaged a strong 1.23 FanDuel points per minute in the bubble. He’s probably not going to repeat his performance in Game 2, but he still has plenty of upside at just $7,500 on FanDuel.
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Shooting Guard
Stud
Is there anything Luka Doncic can’t do at this point? He scored 41 points in Game 1 vs. the Clippers — the most ever by a player in his playoff debut. He was red-hot from the field, shooting 13-of-21 from the field and 14-of-15 from the free throw line, and he also chipped in with nine assists and seven rebounds. The total result was 61.9 FanDuel points vs. a really tough Clippers defense.
Can he repeat his performance today? I don’t see why not. He is probably due for some shooting regression, but he’s always capable of recording more rebounds or assists. He also recorded 11 turnovers in his last contest, so he could score a few additional fantasy points just by protecting the ball a bit better.
Overall, he’s simply way too cheap at $10,500 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 88%, and Doncic has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.93 with a comparable price tag this season.
Value
Seth Curry is going to be an important part of the Dallas rotation during the playoffs, which makes him way too cheap at $3,600 on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 33.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with a comparable salary and minutes projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.29. Curry has also averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s more productive than the typical punt play.
Fast Break
Joe Harris has been fantastic in the bubble, averaging 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. The bump in production is not all that surprising given their current roster situation. They’re without both Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie, and Harris has increased his usage rate by +7.1% with both players off the court this season.
There’s a good chance that Marcus Smart will move into the starting lineup in place of Hayward, which makes him a nice option at $5,600 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 33.1 minutes per game in 15 games without Hayward this season, which is the third-highest mark on the team.
Small Forward
Stud
The postseason is officially Kawhi Leonard’s time to shine. He did not disappoint in his first playoff game this season, posting a Plus/Minus of +16.18 on FanDuel. His salary jumped by only $300 on FanDuel following that performance, which means he’s still underpriced. His $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Value
Matisse Thybulle is a bit limited on the offensive end of the court, but he’s already one of the best defenders in the league. That was reflected in Game 1 vs. the Celtics after limiting Jayson Tatum to just 2-of-9 shooting as his primary defender.
That should get him on the court for a solid handful of minutes in today’s contest, and he’s priced near the minimum across the industry. He’s definitely a strong option on FanDuel, where steals and blocks are worth three points instead of two, but he has some appeal on DraftKings as well.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris is currently projected for 38.1 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark at the SF position. He’s also increased his production to 1.17 FanDuel points per minute in the bubble, so he’s capable of taking advantage of those minutes. He scored 38.6 fantasy points in his last game despite shooting just 6-of-15 from the field.
Joe Ingles should see all the playing time he can handle for the shorthanded Jazz at the moment. He logged over 43 minutes in his last game, including over 38 during regulation. He’s capable of averaging close to 1.00 FanDuel point per minute, which makes him a strong option at $5,500.
Power Forward
Stud
Tatum is an interesting option today. On one hand, he absolutely crushed in Game 1, scoring 57.1 FanDuel points and posting a Plus/Minus of +19.79. He’s also increased his usage rate by a team-high +2.9% with Hayward off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.15 FanDuel points per minute. That’s definitely a positive for his outlook moving forward.
On the other hand, he should expect to see a lot of Thybulle in this game. Thybulle is an excellent defender, which is going to make life very tough for him.
He’s definitely still in play on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 88%, but he does have some bust potential in this matchup.
Value
Paul Millsap struggled in his last game, shooting just 3-of-10 from the field while grabbing three boards. That said, he did play 29.5 minutes in that contest, which bodes well for his prospects moving forward. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, so that should be more than enough playing time to pay off his $4,300 salary.
Fast Break
Al Horford stands out as an excellent value at $5,500 on FanDuel. He played 31.1 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Celtics despite finishing with five fouls. It’s possible that he could see a few additional minutes moving forward. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can pay off his salary if he plays just 31 minutes again.
Daniel Theis is another player who could see a boost in value with Hayward out of the lineup. He probably won’t see much of a boost to his usage rate, but he could see a few additional minutes.
Center
Stud
Center is arguably the strongest position on today’s slate. It starts at the top, where DFS players will have to choose between Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic.
Let’s start with Embiid. He came out of the gates on fire in his last game, scoring 11 points on 5-of-5 shooting in the first quarter. With that in mind, his final tally of 50.7 FanDuel points was actually a bit disappointing. He said that he will be more aggressive in today’s contest, and that would obviously be a good thing for his fantasy prospects.
Jokic has not been as productive as Embiid in Orlando – he’s averaged just 1.28 FanDuel points per minute – but his upside is undeniable. He logged just three assists and 10 rebounds in his last game, both of which are low for him. He averaged 25.1 points, 13.0 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 2.0 steals + blocks last year, and that kind of production could easily make him the highest scorer on the slate. The Jazz have also struggled against opposing centers this season, giving Jokic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.63 on FanDuel.
Value
Marc Gasol has played a limited workload recently, which has caused his salary to drop all the way to $4,000 on DraftKings. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in just 20.6 minutes in his last game, so he could very easily do that again today. He has arguably the best matchup on the slate vs. the Nets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.1 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert could be a bit overlooked on today’s slate. He had average ownership of just 8.4% on DraftKings in his first game, which makes sense considering the presence of Embiid and Jokic. Still, he has the potential to be the best pure value of the trio given the price difference.
Photo credit: Getty Images
Pictured: Kawhi Leonard
