The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET, so let’s dive in.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has played some of his best basketball of the season recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.86 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s increased his production to 1.55 FanDuel points per minute.
He has the chance for a big performance against the Raptors. Bradley Beal is questionable and Rui Hachimura has already been ruled out, so Westbrook should be asked to carry a massive workload if both players are sidelined. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.7% with both players off the court this season, and he’s also increased his assist rate by +3.7%.
Beal’s status will be important players to monitor heading into lineup lock, so make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for any updates.
Value
The Raptors have the potential to be very thin in the backcourt on Monday. Kyle Lowry has already been ruled out, while Fred VanVleet is questionable due to a strained hip flexor. He was unable to practice on Sunday, so it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he’s ultimately ruled out.
His absence would open the door for Malachi Flynn to draw the start at point guard. He’s currently projected for 30.1 minutes in our NBA Models at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.34 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Jordan McLaughlin is another potential source of value at the position. The Timberwolves are not expected to have either D’Angelo Russell or Ricky Rubio in the lineup, which leaves them without much depth at the position. He’s currently projected for 37.6 minutes, which is the top mark among this slate’s point guards. He’s coming off 38.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season.
James Harden is currently questionable for the Nets, but he would be an interesting option on DraftKings if he’s able to suit up. His $10,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he will likely carry lower ownership than usual given the injury designation.
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Brooklyn Nets star James Harden.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Anthony Edwards hasn’t had the most efficient rookie season, but he’s been putting up fantasy numbers recently through sheer volume. He’s coming off 41.3 minutes in his last game, and he’s increased his production to 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He should be looking at another sizable workload with Rubio and Russell likely out of the lineup, and he’s scored at least 40.6 FanDuel points in three of his past four games.
The Timberwolves also own arguably the top matchup of the slate. They’re taking on the Sacramento Kings, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency.
Value
The Pistons are going to give Wayne Ellington and Mason Plumlee the night off, and Rodney McGruder remains out of the lineup with an elbow injury. That means Josh Jackson should see a few additional minutes vs. the Thunder. Jackson has been excellent when given the chance to play this season, averaging 0.98 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
The Kings own the top implied team total on the slate at 119.5 points, and Tyrese Haliburton stands out as one of their top options. He’s coming off 35.7 FanDuel points in his last outing, and he’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s simply too cheap at $5,700 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 84%.
Gary Trent is another player who is underpriced on FanDuel. His $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he could be asked to play huge minutes if VanVleet is ruled out. The Wizards have also been one of the top matchups in fantasy this season, giving Trent an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.31 on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
Sticking with the Raptors, OG Anunoby has been a fantasy monster recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.99 over that time frame. His salary has come up a bit across the industry, but his $7,000 price tag on FanDuel is very reasonable. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.13 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he would be asked to carry a massive workload if VanVleet is ultimately ruled out.
Value
Josh Okogie could be an interesting punt play for the Timberwolves. He’s priced at just $3,000 on DraftKings, but he’s coming off 24.6 minutes Saturday vs. the 76ers. He’s projected for a similar workload on this slate, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.27 with a comparable minute projection.
Fast Break
The Kings should be a popular target on this slate, and Buddy Hield is definitely worth consideration at $5,800 on FanDuel. He leads all small forwards with 10 Pro Trends, and he’s averaged a solid 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s expected to play around 33 minutes in an elite matchup vs. the Timberwolves, which should be enough playing time to pay off his moderate price tag.
Aleksej Pokusevski has stepped into a solid role for the Thunder given all their injuries. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort remain out with injuries, while Al Horford is not expected to suit up for OKC again this season. Pokusevski has logged at least 30.9 minutes in six straight games, and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings per minute over the past month.
Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Aleksej Pokusevski
Power Forward
Stud
Pascal Siakam has been another reliable producer for the Raptors recently, and he’s coming off 58.25 DraftKings points over 31.1 minutes in his last outing. He also posted a usage rate of 35.8% in that outing, which was his second-highest mark of the season. That’s not all that surprising with Lowry out of the lineup and VanVleet playing just 18.6 minutes, so expect Siakam to serve as their offensive focal point once again if VanVleet is out on Monday.
Value
Naz Reid isn’t playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he doesn’t need to at his current price tag. He’s just $3,300 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 18.1 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be enough in an elite matchup vs. the Kings. Reid owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.80 on DraftKings, which is the top mark at the position.
Fast Break
Stanley Johnson is another potential target for the Raptors. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s played at least 18.4 minutes in three of his past four games. Johnson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests, and he should be able to do so again on Monday.
Julius Randle stands out as one of the best values at the position on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%. His 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and he has the potential for a big game vs. the Nets. They rank just 25th in defensive efficiency, and they’ve also played at an above-average pace.
Center
Stud
There are a ton of appealing value options on this slate, but there aren’t a ton of studs worth considering. That makes Karl-Anthony Towns the clear choice at center. His season has been quiet after missing an extended stretch due to COVID-19, but he’s back to looking like the KAT of old. He’s coming off a massive performance vs. Joel Embiid and the 76ers on Saturday, finishing with 70.5 DraftKings points over 44 minutes. He’s been an elite option in general recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.14 over his past 10 games.
Towns should be able to do some serious damage vs. the Kings on Monday. Not only are they dead last in terms of defensive efficiency, but they’re also dead last in terms of opponent points in the paint per game. Towns’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.0 is the top mark at the position, so simply lock him in and move on.
Value
Chris Boucher is yet another option for the Raptors, particularly on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he’s projected for 23.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Boucher has averaged 1.25 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has the ability to rack up fantasy points quickly.
Fast Break
Richaun Holmes has not been asked to play many minutes for the Kings recently, but he should return to his usual workload vs. the Timberwolves. They’re going to need his size vs. Towns, and he’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. The Timberwolves also represent an elite matchup, giving Holmes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.60.
Isaiah Stewart has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should be looking at a few additional minutes tonight with Plumlee out of the lineup. That makes him a viable value play, particularly on DraftKings since you can pair him with Towns.
