The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s slate features an five-game slate, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
The West Coast is the best coast tonight as Steph Curry and Damian Lillard lead the point guard position. Curry is looking to get back to his dominant ways while Lillard is coming off his first 40-point game of the season. The duo is also attached to the two games with the highest projected game totals on the evening. Steph is FantasyLabs’ top-rated point guard this evening, while Lillard is sixth.
Value
Gabe Vincent is expected to start for Miami tonight if his knee does not bother him ahead of tip-off. Miami is ravaged by COVID-19, leading Vincent to see score almost one FanDuel point per minute in 36 minutes Tuesday. His usage and minutes make him an option despite facing a 76ers team that is getting back players from the same health concerns.
Edmond Sumner will also see more play tonight as Malcolm Brogdon’s back-up/starting shooting guard for Indiana. Caris LeVert will be in the rotation soon, so enjoy his usage at both guard positions while it lasts. His is the third-highest ranked point guard tonight.
Fast Break
On the other end of the Heat-76ers game is the expected return of Shake Milton and a healthier Ben Simmons. Vincent had his way against the shorthanded 76ers, and now the two can repay the favor.
Dejounte Murray gets a shorthanded Houston Rockets front court that will be missing John Wall and will not have newly acquired Victor Oladipo available. Murray has played at least 31 minutes in five straight games and scored at least 30 FanDuel points in four of the past five.
Patty Mills also sees a boost in value tonight because of Houston’s depth concerns and rotation questions after their blockbuster trade.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan outshines Fred VanVleet and C.J. McCollum because there is uncertainty attached to his game status and he plays the Houston Rockets. There is a theme with players to target tonight, ya dig? Hope all is well as he has dealt with a personal issue while away from the team.
McCollum has been dynamite to start the season but is projected to have a lower Ceiling than DeRozan despite a similar ownership projection.
Value
Andre Iguodala is the highest-rated shooting guard tonight after playing a season-high 22 minutes Tuesday. Opportunity is king.
Fast Break
Iggy’s teammate Tyler Herro sits second in our rankings tonight and is projected to be the highest-rostered shooting guard on the slate. He has scored 65 points on 46 shots over his past two games and is projected to have a Usage Rating over every stud play tonight.
If Gordon Hayward is out for Charlotte this evening, Cody Martin could be a min-priced value. He absorbed some of Hayward’s minutes last night after he left with a hip strain.
Small Forward
Stud
If Gordon Hayward is active, he is my favorite stud option among a lackluster small forward group. Tobias Harris gets the Miami Heat bump tonight, which should drive his ownership in his return from health protocols. The two rank as top five Leverage plays at the position.
Value
Precious Achiuwa has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among small forwards tonight for who else but the Miami Heat. His biggest downfall is having to guard Tobias Harris since the Heat will probably have to play a smaller lineup.
Fast Break
I really like Will Barton tonight in a projected matchup against Andrew Wiggins. The two could light up the scoreboard or showcase why they are not trusted scorers on a nightly basis. Barton is $1,100 cheaper than Wiggins on FanDuel and has a much better Projected Plus/Minus in what should be a high-scoring, close game.
Power Forward
Stud
Christian Wood is going to get as many looks as he wants tonight for Houston. The San Antonio Spurs are average against power forwards but have the knowledge that Wood will be the focal point of the offense this evening without John Wall in the lineup.
Pascal Siakam has the best matchup in terms of Opponent’s Plus/Minus allowed among the elite options.
Value
P.J. Tucker is going to get looks with Wood drawing majority of the attention from the Spurs’ defense.
Chris Silva is a min-priced dart throw that will play because the Heat have zero depth near the basket because of COVID.
Fast Break
Kelly Olynyk broke the Projected Plus/Minus statistic. His projection is more than double that of stud Damonis Sabonis, who is second at the position this evening. Olynyk is also expected to carry the highest ownership at the four.
Chris Boucher is officially no longer a bargain. His Bargain Rating tonight is a cool 0% even though he is $1,100 cheaper than Siakam and is expected to carry approximately 10% less ownership.
Center
Stud
This is going to sound absurd, but I do not expect Nikola Jokic to collect seven steals again tonight. I am intrigued that Jokic and Joel Embiid are separated by three spots using our wise sage Justin Phan’s model. Embiid is facing a usually difficult matchup with Miami, but again there is no one left that is healthy and good enough defensively to slow down Embiid. The two match-up in nearly every projection but Embiid is $1,000 cheaper than Jokic and is expected to have slightly less rostership. Both are clearly elite options, but I would expect a healthier 76ers roster to have their way with the Heat tonight.
Value
DeMarcus Cousins is going to get run tonight and has shed James Harden from his conscience after venting his frustrations with him to the media yesterday. #NarrativeStreet says he balls tonight. Cousins is the only sub-5k center with a top five Ceiling projection tonight.
Bismack Biyombo is getting my attention against the Toronto Raptors because they are playing a smaller lineup. He is a good value at $4,200 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Embiid is tied with…Myles Turner for the second-most Pro Trends among centers.
Turner and Jusuf Nurkic are not known for their defensive prowess and have bare minimum double-double potential tonight.
Jakob Poeltl has intriguing punt potential with Houston in flux and awful at guarding opposing centers; Poeltl has the best matchup tonight using Opponent’s Plus/Minus allowed.
