The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a two-game slate starting at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Oklahoma City has its back against the wall vs. Houston. The Thunder facing elimination, so expect them to play their starters for as many minutes as needed to try to secure the win.
That includes Chris Paul, was should be pretty fresh after playing fewer than 30 minutes in Game 5. The Thunder were down big in that contest, so they decided to pull most of their starters in the fourth quarter. Paul currently leads the position with 36.4 projected minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged a strong 1.15 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Value
The Heat made the decision to bench Rookie of the Year finalist Kendrick Nunn in their first-round series vs. the Pacers, which allowed Goran Dragic to move into the starting lineup. He was awesome in that role, posting a positive Plus/Minus in all four contests. He has been priced up a bit for Monday’s matchup vs. the Bucks, but he still seems too cheap across the industry. The Bucks have played at one of the fastest paces in basketball this season, giving Dragic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.28 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Eric Bledsoe has been listed as questionable for the Bucks, and George Hill would likely replace him in the starting lineup if he’s unable to suit up. Hill has been a solid investment in eight games without Bledsoe this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.7 on DraftKings.
Russell Westbrook is going to be the X-factor at the position. He was limited to just 23.6 minutes in his first game back from a quad injury, and he also shot just 3-13 from the field. The result was just 27.0 DraftKings points at $9,900, which made him a massive bust.
That said, his playing time should only increase as he gets further removed from his injury, and we know what Westbrook is capable of when on the court. He should check in with low ownership for a two-game slate, which makes him very interesting for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden figures to see a decrease in fantasy value with Westbrook back in the fold, but Harden still possesses one of the highest ceilings in basketball. However, this has not been a particularly good matchup for him so far. He’s seen a lot of Luguentz Dort on defense, who has limited him to just 32.5% shooting from the field and 31.0% shooting from 3-point range while serving as his primary defender. Harden is also going to start alongside both Westbrook and Eric Gordon, which he didn’t do very often during the regular season. Both of those players a high-usage options, so Harden might not see as many touches as usual during the postseason.
Cato Cataldo/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: James Harden
If you are going to play Harden today, FanDuel looks like the place to do it. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends, and his $11,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.
Value
Speaking of Dort, he is a very interesting option today at just $3,700 on FanDuel. The Rockets showed him absolutely zero respect in his last game and basically chose to leave him unguarded and pack the paint. As a result, Dort actually led the Thunder with 16 shot attempts. He made only three of them, so I would expect the Rockets to employ a similar strategy Monday whenever Dort is on the court.
That leaves the Thunder with a decision. They either need to sacrifice their defense and limit Dort’s minutes or pray that he shoots the ball a bit better in Game 6. If they opt for the latter, Dort has big upside at his current price tag.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder stand out as two of the top options on the slate regardless of position. Both guys have been extremely involved for the Thunder, and that should be the case again on Monday. SGA is the safer bet given the sheer volume of minutes he’s been playing — he’s currently projected for 42.6 minutes in our NBA Models — but Schroder has commanded a significantly higher usage rate.
Schroder is also the better pure value of the two, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 88%.
Tyler Herro has been another beneficiary of the decision to bench Nunn. He posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in all four games vs. the Pacers, and he logged at least 32.4 minutes in three of those contests. Herro has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage with that much playing time.
Small Forward
Stud
There are a lot of people who are picking the Heat to win their series vs. the Bucks, but the biggest reason for that is because the Bucks’ defensive scheme encourages teams to shoot the 3-pointer. The Heat ranked second in 3-point shooting percentage this season, so they can exploit this weakness.
That said, don’t expect Jimmy Butler to be one of those guys.
Butler was dreadful from behind the arc this season, making just 24.4% of his 3-point attempts. Butler is obviously capable of scoring fantasy points in other ways, but I think this matchup sets up a lot better for some of his teammates than it does for him.
Value
Danilo Gallinari has been dreadful over his past two games, which has caused his salary to drop to just $5,500 on FanDuel. That results in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and Gallinari has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.02 with a comparable price tag this season (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Andre Iguodala is clearly on the downside of his career, but he’s still seeing a solid number of minutes for the Heat. He’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Iggy has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s one of the best pure values on DraftKings regardless of position given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Butler, Andre Iguodala
Eric Gordon should see a decrease in value now that Westbrook is back in the lineup, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all five games in this series. That includes Game 5 with Westbrook, and a lower usage rate could result in increased efficiency.
Power Forward
Stud
PF is easily the weakest position today on FanDuel. Only three players are projected for more than 13.8 minutes.
Bam Adebayo is one of those options, and he’s stands out as the easy top option at the position. He’s currently projected for the most minutes at the position, and he’s also averaged a position-best 1.27 FanDuel points per minute. Additionally, he leads the position with 10 Pro Trends, so just lock him in your lineup and move on.
Value
Jeff Green has become an important part of the Rockets rotation. He’s logged at least 30.7 minutes in each game vs. the Thunder, and he’s averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He stands out as the best pure value at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 86%.
Fast Break
Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as a PF on DraftKings, which makes the position a lot more tolerable. He has been a fantasy monster all season, averaging 2.03 DraftKings points per minute, and the Heat represent a solid matchup for him. Giannis lives at the rim, and the Heat have allowed the fifth-highest frequency of shots at the rim during the first round of the playoffs.
Robert Covington is another PF option for the Rockets. He’s slightly more expensive than Green across the industry, but he’s been the superior producer on a per-minute basis over the course of the season.
Center
Stud
Adebayo is listed as a center on DraftKings, and he’s really the only true “stud” option available at the position.
Brook Lopez is probably the closest thing to a stud outside of Adebayo. Lopez has been an excellent fantasy producer when on the court, and he’s increased his production to 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s been playing around 30 minutes during the playoffs, which makes him a strong target at just $5,300.
Value
P.J. Tucker got ejected in the Rockets last game, but he was still able to post a positive Plus/Minus over just 21.2 minutes. He’s not a particularly impressive per-minute producer — he’s averaged just 0.57 FanDuel points per minute in the bubble — but it’s hard to find someone with a comparable minute projection at such a cheap price tag.
Fast Break
Steven Adams has not been playing a ton of minutes in this series, but he has excellent upside when he’s been on the court. The Rockets have been absolutely crushed on the glass since trading away Clint Capela, and Adams grabbed 14 boards in just 25.4 minutes in Game 5. If he can get at least 10 points, which he’s done in three of the first five games, he should be able to get a cheap double-double.
Pictured above: Jimmy Butler (Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
