The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic is starting to get a bit pricier across the industry, but he still seems too cheap given his recent production. He’s finished with at least 57.75 DraftKings points in five straight games, and he’s logged at least 71.5 DraftKings points in three of them. He leads the league in both usage rate and assist rate – which is a lethal combination for fantasy purposes – and he’s also on pace to post a new career-high in rebound rate. Doncic should also continue to carry a larger workload than usual with Josh Richardson, Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Maxi Kleber all sidelined due to health and safety protocols.
He’s also in a massive pace up spot vs. the Bucks. They’ve played at the sixth-fastest pace this season, while Dallas ranks just tied for 24th. That means Doncic has excellent upside if this game stays competitive.
Value
The Pelicans were extremely shorthanded in their last contest, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker was asked to pick up the slack. He scored a career-high 37 points, resulting in 52.5 DraftKings points. Not bad for a guy who cost just $3,100.
He has been priced up for Friday’s matchup vs. the Lakers, but he’s still too cheap if the Pelicans are going to be shorthanded again. They will get Zion Williamson back for this contest, but Lonzo Ball has been ruled out and Eric Bledsoe is questionable. Alexander-Walker has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of extra playing time. He’s an elite value at $4,300 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
George Hill has been priced around $4,500 on FanDuel for most of the season, and he’s responded by posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. He owns an excellent matchup vs. the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.70. He’s not the sexiest DFS option, but he should get the job done at his current salary.
On the other side of that matchup, De’Aaron Fox is a very appealing target at $7,300 on FanDuel. He’s seen a price decrease of more than -$1,000 since the start of the season, and Fox has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.69 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jaylen Brown is currently listed as questionable vs. the Magic due to health and safety protocols, but he has the potential to carry a massive workload if he’s active. Jayson Tatum will remain sidelined after reportedly testing positive for COVID-19, while Kemba Walker is still not ready to make his season debut. Brown has increased his usage rate to 32.8% with Tatum off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.23 DraftKings points per minute.
Make sure to monitor the status of all the Celtics’ players using the Labs Insiders tool.
Value
Sticking with the Celtics, Javonte Green is someone who could be asked to play a few additional minutes vs. the Magic if he’s able to suit up. He’s also listed as questionable, but the Celtics have plenty of minutes up for grabs in the backcourt with Tatum, Romeo Langford, and Carsen Edwards all out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 20.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.32.
Green is a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $3,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Can I interest you in another Celtic? Marcus Smart stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75%, and he’s another player who should see an expanded workload. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.3% with Tatum off the court this season, so he has the potential to outproduce his average of 0.90 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
The Jazz are another strong team to target on Friday. They’re in a great spot vs. the Hawks – their implied team total of 115.75 ranks third on the slate – and they’re also going to be without Joe Ingles for the second straight game. Jordan Clarkson has crushed in his two previous games without Ingles this season, averaging 36.9 FanDuel points per game.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has been as effective as ever in his 18th NBA season. He’s averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute, and a lack of minutes is the only thing that has kept his fantasy scoring in check. He’s played 30.4 minutes or less in three straight games – all of which were blowouts – and it’s even tough for LeBron to return value in such limited playing time.
That’s caused his price to drop to $9,700 on DraftKings for tonight’s matchup vs. the Pelicans, which is an appealing price tag for him. He should return to his normal workload if today’s game stays competitive, and LeBron has the potential to smash his reduced salary if that happens. Prior to the string of blowouts, he had scored at least 53.25 DraftKings points in four straight games.
Value
Josh Okogie has returned to the Timberwolves lineup recently after missing six straight games with an injury, and he’s coming off 27 minutes in his last game. He was able to score 18.75 DraftKings points in that contest, which was good enough to return value at his minimal salary.
That said, he has the potential to play much more than that today. Juancho Hernangomez, Ricky Rubio, and Jake Layman have all been ruled out, which opens up a ton of playing time on the wing. Okogie isn’t a monster on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged 0.66 DraftKings points per minute this season – but players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.28.
Fast Break
Collin Sexton and Darius Garland both remain out for the Cavaliers, which means Cedi Osman will once again be asked to carry a larger workload. He’s scored at least 27.5 FanDuel points in five of his past six games, so he’s a steal at just $5,100 on FanDuel.
Tom Thibodeau has the reputation for giving his top guys heavy minutes, and R.J. Barrett has benefitted from that treatment this season. He currently leads the league in minutes per game, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.11 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His price has dropped by -$600 over his past two contests, so this is a nice buy-low opportunity.
Power Forward
Stud
Obi Toppin and Taj Gibson were both available in the Knicks’ last game, but that didn’t stop Julius Randle from dominating the minutes at the PF position. Toppin and Gibson combined for just one minute of playing time, and while Toppin will likely take a larger role in the rotation as the season progresses, it’s clear that Thibodeau doesn’t want to rush him back following an extended injury absence.
That means Randle should once again carry a massive workload vs. the Cavaliers. He currently ranks third in the league in minutes per game, and he’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s excelled as a scorer, passer, and rebounder, which gives him the highest ceiling projection at the PF position.
Value
James Johnson has been priced up a bit after scoring at least 26.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, but he should continue to benefit from the Mavs’ shorthanded rotation. He has the ability to rack up points in every category across the board, which makes his game very fantasy-friendly. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is an excellent mark considering his price tag.
Fast Break
Jarred Vanderbilt is another option for the short-handed Timberwolves. He’s been a solid fantasy producer when on the court this season – he’s averaged 1.06 DKFP per minute – and he’s currently projected for 26.4 minutes in our NBA Models. He has PF/C eligibility on DraftKings and SF eligibility on FanDuel, but he’s a solid option on both sites.
Brandon Clarke has seen a boost in playing time recently, and he’s scored at least 43.3 FanDuel points in two of his past three games. That said, his price has stayed pretty stagnant on FanDuel, which makes him an excellent value vs. the Timberwolves. Minnesota ranks just 27th in defensive efficiency this season, so this is an excellent matchup.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has played in two of the Timberwolves’ past three games, and he has not been limited in any capacity when he’s been active. He’s finished with at least 34.4 minutes in both contests, and he’s responded with at least 52.5 DKFP in each game. Towns is one of the best big-men in fantasy – he’s averaged 1.45 DKFP per minute this season – and the Grizzlies should have no answer for him. He’s one of the top stud options on the slate.
Value
Tristan Thompson and the rest of the Celtics’ big men will be back in action tonight after clearing the league’s health and safety protocols. Those guys could all see a few additional minutes with Tatum out of the lineup if the team chooses to play big, and Thompson has averaged 0.93 DKFP per minute this season.
Fast Break
Willie Cauley-Stein has been an excellent value recently. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +6.12 on DraftKings in three of his past four games, and he remains affordable at $4,500 on DraftKings. The result is a Bargain Rating of 90%. If you want to go even cheaper with the Mavericks, Boban Marjanovic is another option. He won’t see nearly as much playing time as WCS, but he’s capable of producing at an elite level on a per-minute basis.
Most of the top center options are better values on DraftKings than FanDuel, but Mitchell Robinson is an exception. His $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 63%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.16 over his past 10 games. He’s in a strong spot tonight vs. the Cavaliers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.47.
