NBA DFS Breakdown (Saturday, Dec. 26): Christian Wood is a DraftKings Lock

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

Now that Russell Westbrook is out of Houston, he has a chance to regain his status as one of the best fantasy point guards in the league. He still has to share the ball with Bradley Beal, but that is nowhere near as taxing to his fantasy stock as sharing with James Harden. He posted a usage rate of 35.0% in his first game with the Wizards and finished with 21 points, 11 rebounds, and 15 assists.

Westbrook looks like an excellent value at just $10,000 on FanDuel. He has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.44 with a comparable salary when playing for someone other than the Rockets (per the Trends tool).

Value

Elfrid Payton is capable of racking up fantasy points in bunches, and he has the potential to see some extra playing time vs. the 76ers. Immanuel Quickley is doubtful with a hip injury, and as a result, Payton is currently projected for 31.4 minutes in our NBA Models. Payton has historically provided nice value with a comparable salary and minute projection, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.86. He also stands out as one of the better values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 72%.

Fast Break

Derrick White will miss his second-straight game to start the season, which means Dejounte Murray has the opportunity for another big game. He was brilliant in the Spurs’ first game of the year, finishing with 45.0 DraftKings points in 30.6 minutes. He’s in a tougher spot vs. the Raptors, but his $6,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. That’s simply too good to pass up.

George Hill has the potential to be one of the best pure values of the day. He’s dirt cheap at just $3,400 on DraftKings, but he is expected to play a big role in his first game with the Thunder. He’s projected for 30.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.43.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Well, the Rockets have certainly had an interesting start to their season. They had to postpone their first scheduled game after they couldn’t field the required minimum of eight players, but they will take the floor tonight against the Blazers. They are still going to be very shorthanded, with just nine players expected to dress.

James Harden is one of those players, and he is going to have to carry a massive workload. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Eric Gordon have all been ruled out, which leaves Harden as essentially the lone scoring option. He increased his usage rate to 46.1% with Westbrook and Gordon off the court last season, resulting in an average of 1.76 DraftKings points per minute.

There are questions about Harden’s motivation and fitness at the moment, but there’s no doubt that this dude can rack up fantasy points. Roster him with confidence.

Value

Devonte’ Graham got off to a slow start as a scorer this season, shooting just 30.8% from the field and 22.2% from 3-point range. That said, he was still able to post a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel, which is pretty encouraging for his fantasy prospects moving forward. If he can return value in games in which his shot isn’t falling, he has the potential to smash his current salary when it is. His price has also decreased by -$300 for today’s contest on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 74%.

Fast Break

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to have to be the man for the Thunder this season. Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, and Danilo Gallinari are all gone, which leaves SGA as the only returning player from last year’s top-four scorers. He increased his usage rate by +9.8% with Paul, Schroder, and Gallo off the court last season, resulting in an average of 1.31 FanDuel points per minute.

Buddy Hield lost a bunch of playing time last season to Bogdan Bogdanovic, but he has a chance to play huge minutes for the Kings this season. He played a whopping 41.1 minutes on opening night in an overtime win over the Nuggets, so his salary is very reasonable at $5,600 on FanDuel. His 10 Pro Trends are also tied for the second-most at the position.

Small Forward

Stud

The slate on Boxing Day is typically light on star power since all the top studs generally play on Christmas. The small forward position, in particular, is weaker than usual, with only Gordon Hayward commanding a salary above $7,000 on FanDuel.

Hayward is dealing with a fractured pinky on his shooting hand, but it didn’t slow him down in his first game of the season. He finished with 43.3 FanDuel points thanks to 28 points, four rebounds, seven assists, and one steal. He didn’t get a chance to truly spread his wings with the Celtics, but he should have plenty of opportunities with the Hornets. They gave him a four-year, $120M contract in the offseason, so Hayward is now their franchise cornerstone.

Value

Expect Danuel House to be the highest-owned player at the position. He’s priced at just $3,700 on FanDuel and should be forced into a huge workload for the shorthanded Rockets. He’s currently projected for 35.2 minutes in our NBA Models, which trails only Hayward’s mark of 35.3 at the position. Unsurprisingly, players with a comparable salary and minute projection have historically crushed, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.60.

Fast Break

Keldon Johnson was a surprise starter on opening night for the Spurs, and he responded with a Plus/Minus of +17.82 on FanDuel. Johnson got some extended playing time in the bubble last season, and he appears to have played himself into a significant role with the team this season. He should continue to play solid minutes with White out of the lineup and is affordable across the industry.

Jerami Grant left the Nuggets to sign with the Pistons because he wanted a larger role on offense, and it appears as though he’s going to get his wish. He finished with 31.4 minutes on opening night, and his 11 shot attempts were the fourth-highest mark on the team. He’s in an excellent spot today against the Cavaliers, who ranked dead last in defensive efficiency last season.

Power Forward

Stud

Julius Randle had a bit of a down season last year, but the Knicks had a major logjam at the power forward position. They are much thinner there this season, and they’ll be even thinner than usual against the 76ers.

Rookie first-round pick Obi Toppin is doubtful with a calf injury, and his absence would leave Randle as one of the only available options at the position. Randle is capable of averaging well over 1.00 fantasy points per minute, and he’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel and is an excellent target across the industry.

Value

I wouldn’t blame you if you’ve never heard of Jae’Sean Tate before today, but you should probably get familiar with him. This will be his first career NBA game, and it’s possible that he plays a ton of minutes for the shorthanded Rockets. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and it’s hard to pass up that kind of value.

Fast Break

Marvin Bagley is on the verge of a huge game. He struggled on opening night, shooting just 35.7% from the field and finished with zero assists, zero blocks, and one steal, yet he still managed to score 24.8 FanDuel points in just 27.4 minutes. He led the Kings in usage in their first game of the season, which bodes well for his fantasy value moving forward.

P.J. Washington didn’t play nearly as much as expected on opening night, but he could be forced into a larger role vs. the Thunder. Cody Zeller is going to miss 4-6 weeks following surgery on his fractured hand, which leaves the team with a big hole at the center position. The team had talked about playing Washington at center this season, and this seems like the perfect opportunity to do so. Bismack Biyombo is expected to draw the start at the position, but Washington should still see much more playing time than he did in his first game.

Center

Stud

The center position is loaded on today’s slate, and it should be very easy to pay up for one of the top options. There’s more than enough value available to jam in Harden and a stud big man.

Nikola Vucevic isn’t the most expensive option at the position, but he’s in a potential smash spot against the Wizards. They were an elite matchup for centers last season, which is not surprising since they ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and last in team rebound rate. Vucevic smashed in his three games against the Wizards last year, averaging 49.87 FanDuel points and a +10.75 Plus/Minus. He also posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating.

Value

Aron Baynes is not the flashiest center option, but he should get the job done against the Spurs. He’s currently projected for 31.3 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a ton of playing time considering his current salary. He’s priced at just $4,200 on DraftKings and $4,600 on FanDuel, giving him the chance to be one of the best points-per-dollar plays at the position.

Fast Break

Christian Wood will make his debut with the Rockets today, and expectations are sky-high for the young big man. He was excellent in 12 games as a starter last season with the Pistons, averaging 21.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game, and he averaged 43.13 DraftKings points per game when he played at least 30 minutes. He should see well over 30 minutes for the shorthanded Rockets against the Blazers, so he’s way too cheap at just $5,900.

Deandre Ayton was limited to just 24.2 minutes in his first game of the season, but he still managed to finish with 31.1 FanDuel points. That’s good for an average of 1.32 FanDuel points per minute, which is an excellent per-minute average. He should see significantly more playing time on today’s slate, making him a prime target at just $7,400 on FanDuel.

Pictured: Christian Wood (35) and James Harden (13).

Photo Credit: Cato Cataldo/NBAE via Getty Images.