Tuesday features Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers starting at 9 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.
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Studs
We have to start this slate by talking about Jimmy Butler, who was absolutely sensational in Game 3. He finished with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists, resulting in 83.25 DraftKings points. He was also extremely efficient in that contest, shooting 70% from the field and 85.7% from the free-throw line.
Overall, it isn’t a stretch to call this one of the greatest performances in NBA Finals history. Any time you find yourself on a list with guys like LeBron James, Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan, you’ve obviously accomplished something pretty special.
Butler remains the most reasonably priced stud option heading into Game 4, but leads all players in projected Plus/Minus in our NBA Models. He may not possess the same ceiling as the Lakers’ stars, but he’s pretty darn close.
Butler will likely see increased ownership at the Captain spot on DraftKings following his monster Game 3, but he remains the most logical choice if you’re trying to jam all three studs into your lineup.
Speaking of LeBron, he continues to deliver at an unprecedented level for a player in his 17th NBA season. He’s coming off 51.5 DraftKings points in Game 3, which actually feels disappointing. He had scored at least 58.25 DraftKings points in four of his previous five contests, including his first two games vs. the Heat.
Quite simply, he is the safest investment at the moment. There’s no reason to expect any regression in Game 4.
Anthony Davis is the bigger enigma. He has had his way with everyone he has faced during the postseason, including the Heat. He shot 66.7% from the field in Game 3, so why it the world did he attempt just nine shots? He also grabbed just five rebounds against a team that has been crushed on the boards since losing Bam Adebayo.
Values & Punts
That said, I’m not losing faith with Davis. It’s human nature to take your foot off the gas a bit when you’re up 2-0 in a series, even one as big as the NBA Finals. The Heat knew it needed to win that contest to have any shot at winning the series and it showed in Game 3.
I think this is an excellent time to buy low on Davis. He should be motivated coming off a lousy performance and the Heat have no answer for him. His price has also decreased by -$800 on DraftKings, so he’s a bit easier to fit than usual.
Finally, Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4 after being listed as doubtful in each of the past two contests. Still, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be effective or command his usual workload even if he is able to suit up. He will likely command reduced ownership, but he’s a risky option.
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Mid-range
This range continues to look very unappealing in this series. The optimal lineup from Game 3 once again featured zero mid-range targets on DraftKings: Butler was the optimal Captain; LeBron and Davis were utilities; and, the other three players were priced at $4,400 or less.
With that in mind, you can pretty comfortably fade this range entirely once again on today’s slate.
One possible exception is Tyler Herro, who has commanded an increased workload for the Heat following the injury to Goran Dragic. He’s played at least 36.5 minutes in each of the past two games and finished second on the team with a usage rate of 26.2% in his last game. His poor shooting numbers ultimately kept his fantasy scoring down — he shot just 6 of 18 from the field and 2 for 7 from 3-point range — but he obviously has upside as Miami’s No. 2 offensive option.
Rajon Rondo and Jae Crowder round out this price range and look like pretty easy fades. They don’t possess the same upside as Herro and the stud options, so they don’t provide as much points-per-dollar value as some of the cheaper players.
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Values & Punts
These are the players who typically decide showdown contests. It may not feel comfortable to roster someone who isn’t projected for a ton of minutes, but history suggests it’s the easiest way to find yourself at the top of the leaderboard. These plays typically command lower ownership than the mid-tier players, so they allow you to differentiate your lineup without sacrificing the high-end stud production.
Since the mid-range tier is virtually non-existent, it makes sense that this tier is pretty robust.
Let’s break down some of the top options in this range, rapid-fire style:
- Duncan Robinson: $5,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel — Robinson was second on the Heat in minutes in Game 3 and should continue to see plenty of playing time. He didn’t shoot the ball well in that contest (he was just 3 of 10 from behind the arc) — but has the ability to rack up 3-pointers when he’s on.
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: $4,800 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel — He’s playing a solid handful of minutes for the Lakers at the moment and has scored at least 22.0 DraftKings points in two of his first three games against the Heat.
- Kyle Kuzma: $4,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel — Kuzma was one of the biggest beneficiaries from AD’s quiet night offensively. He finished with 13 shot attempts in Game 3, which was his highest total since Game 1 vs. the Blazers. He’s not very interesting at $4,600 on DraftKings, but he still has some value on FanDuel.
- Kendrick Nunn: $4,200 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel — Don’t let Nunn’s poor outing in Game 3 scare you off. He finished with just 6.25 DraftKings points over 20 minutes in that contest, but struggled with foul trouble. He’s currently projected for around 25 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him seriously underpriced on DraftKings.
- Dwight Howard: $3,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel — Howard continues to start for the Lakers, and that shouldn’t change if Adebayo is ultimately able to suit up. His performance has been a bit lacking recently, but he’s still capable of producing well over 1.00 fantasy points per minute.
- Alex Caruso: $3,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel — Caruso has not had great performances in the Finals, but there is still plenty to like about him. He’s coming off 26.1 minutes in his last game, which is one of the higher marks for players in this price range.
- Andre Iguodala: $3,400 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel — Iggy is an interesting buy-low target today. He’s coming off a poor outing in Game 3, but has been more involved in the rotation as the Heat have progressed deeper into the playoffs.
- Kelly Olynyk: $3,200 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel — Olynyk’s salary continues to be the most perplexing on all of DraftKings. The guy has dropped at least 32.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, yet his salary has increased by just $200 over that time frame. Adebayo coming back would definitely cut into his playing time, but he still seems too good to pass up at this price tag.
- Markieff Morris: $2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel — Morris was another player who benefited from Davis’ subpar outing in Game 3. I wouldn’t expect another 31.5 DraftKings points, but he clearly has some upside at his current salary.
