Sunday features Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.
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Studs
The Lakers’ dynamic duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis continues to provide huge fantasy value during the playoffs. James has scored at least 58.25 DraftKings points in each of his first two games of this series, while Davis has scored at least 53.5 DraftKings points in both contests.
James has stuffed the stat sheet in the way we’ve become accustomed to, averaging 29.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists over his past two games. Davis hasn’t been as productive in the assist department, but he leads the team with an average of 33.0 points per game.
Both players should continue to have their way against the Heat, who are expected to be without Bam Adebayo once again in Game 3. The Heat weren’t great at protecting the rim during the regular season, and Adebayo was their best player in that department.
Unsurprisingly, the Lakers dominated in that area of the court in Game 2, shooting 70.4% on those shot attempts. They also shot 88.9% on shots considered “short midrange,” per Cleaning the Glass, so they thoroughly dominated on the interior.
Both players have been in the optimal lineup for each of the first two games of this series, so they obviously deserve heavy consideration in Game 3. The bigger question is whether or not you should put one in the Captain spot on DraftKings. Both players have been priced up pretty aggressively, so going with either player at Captain leaves you with less than an average of $6,400 for your remaining lineup spots. There are plenty of value options to surround those players with, but it will make it tough to also fit Jimmy Butler.
Things are much simpler on FanDuel: just jam both players into premium spots and move on.
Speaking of Butler, he’s coming off a huge performance in Game 2. He didn’t see as large of a scoring boost as expected with Adebayo and Goran Dragic out of the lineup, but he did increase his usage rate to a team-high 28.6%. That said, he increased his overall fantasy output through assists and rebounds. He finished with a game-high 13 assists in Game 2 and also contributed eight rebounds. His ability to stuff the stat sheet makes him a very appealing fantasy option.
Dragic and Adebayo are both doubtful once again in this contest, so Butler should be looking at another expanded workload. He’s significantly cheaper than LeBron and Davis but doesn’t have a much lower ceiling projection in our NBA Models. That makes him the most logical Captain choice on DraftKings if you’re looking to jam all three into your lineups.
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Midrange
Stars-and-scrubs was the optimal lineup configuration in Game 2, and that figures to hold true again in Game 3. The midrange players simply can’t match the high-production from the studs and don’t provide the same points-per-dollar production as the values.
This becomes pretty clear in our NBA Models. Twelve of the top 13 players in terms of projected Plus/Minus are priced either above $9,700 or below $4,700. With that in mind, you can potentially avoid this entire tier.
Tyler Herro is the one possible exception. He logged a whopping 42.9 minutes in Game 2, and he has the ability to score the ball at a high rate. He’s already exploded for 37 points once during the postseason, and only Magic Johnson has scored more points in a game during the playoffs before turning 21.
Herro finished third on the Heat in shot attempts in Game 2, but it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him get a few additional shots up today.
Rajon Rondo, Jae Crowder, and Duncan Robinson round out this price range, but I feel pretty comfortable fading all three players. Rondo is simply too expensive for the number of minutes that he’s playing, while Crowder and Robinson don’t figure to see a huge bump for the shorthanded Heat.
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Values & Punts
These are the players who typically decide showdown contests. It may not feel comfortable to roster someone who isn’t projected for a ton of minutes, but history suggests it’s the easiest way to find yourself at the top of the leaderboard. These plays typically command lower ownership than the mid-tier players, so they allow you to differentiate your lineup without sacrificing the high-end stud production.
Since the midrange tier is virtually non-existent, it makes sense that this tier is pretty robust.
Let’s break down some of the top options in this range, rapid-fire style:
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: $4,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel — KCP continues to provide nice value in this price range. He’s playing more minutes than basically every other player with a comparable price tag, and he’s scored at least 20.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games.
- Kendrick Nunn: $4,400 on DraftKings, $10,000 — Nunn is accurately priced on FanDuel, which makes his DraftKings’ salary look like a joke. He’s coming off 29.2 minutes and 24.0 DraftKings points in his last game, yet his salary has actually decreased by $600 for this contest. He’s a really tough fade if Dragic is unable to suit up.
- Kyle Kuzma & Danny Green — I’m lumping these two players together because no one is actually going to play them. They’re similarly priced to the Heat value plays, who have significantly more upside. That said, crafting a contrarian lineup is going to be pretty difficult today on DraftKings, so using one of these players for your final lineup spot could differentiate you a bit.
- Dwight Howard: $3,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel — Howard has remained in the starting lineup for the Lakers in this series, but that hasn’t exactly translated to fantasy success. He’s scored 14.5 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his past two games, but he still has appeal at his current salary. He’s coming off 17.2 minutes in Game 3, and Howard is capable of averaging well over 1.00 fantasy points per minute.
- Alex Caruso: $3,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel — Caruso was a bust in his last game, but he remains an important part of the Lakers’ rotation. He’s projected for 22.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s a better per-minute producer than players like KCP and Green.
- Kelly Olynyk: $3,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel — If Nunn’s price tag is a joke, Olynyk’s is a downright travesty. Olynyk finished second on the Heat in fantasy production in Game 2, and he should see another massive workload today if Adebayo is ruled out. It’s a mistake if he’s owned at anything less than 100%.
- Andre Iguodala: $3,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel — Iggy has taken on a larger workload for the Heat during the postseason, logging at least 25.6 minutes in four of his past five games. He scored just 11.5 DraftKings points in his last game, but he scored at least 24.5 in each of his past two. He’s a solid value.
- Markieff Morris: $2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel — Morris is another interest pivot in this price range. He should command pretty minimal ownership but has provided decent fantasy value recently.
- Meyers Leonard: $2,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel — Most people will likely shy away from Leonard following his disappointing “start” in Game 2, but there’s no reason he can’t play more in Game 3. If you are fading Olynyk for some reason, Leonard is the obvious pivot.
