Monday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard is coming off a monster performance in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets. He finished with 34 points and 13 assists, resulting in 59.0 DraftKings points. He’s been excellent in general recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.04 over his past 10 games and averaging 1.44 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Lillard also stands out as one of the better values at the positions on DraftKings. He’s priced at $9,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and his eight Pro Trends are the most at point guard. Lillard has historically played 17 games during the month of May with a comparable price tag, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.81 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
Value
The Heat lost a competitive contest vs. the Bucks on Saturday, but don’t blame Goran Dragic. He was one of their best sources of offense, shooting 10-of-17 from the field and 5-of-10 from 3-point range. He also saw more than 34.5 minutes of playing time, which was a nice increase from his regular-season average. Dragic has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s massively underpriced if he’s going to see that much playing time moving forward.
Fast Break
The Nuggets have a trio of players who should handle most of the guard minutes on Monday. Facundo Campazzo finished with 31.5 minutes in their last game, Austin Rivers played 33.1 and Monte Morris played 22. All three of those players are viable options again in Game 2. Rivers is the best pure value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%, Campazzo leads all point guards with a Bargain Rating of 75% on FanDuel. Morris’ salary is more balanced across the industry, but he leads the trio with an average of 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Jrue Holiday could be a bit overlooked at the position. He’s played some of his best basketball of the season recently, averaging 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He posted a positive Plus/Minus of +7.34 in Game 1 vs. the Heat, so he can clearly find success in this matchup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shooting guard is not a particularly strong position on Monday, but C.J. McCollum could have some viability. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 38.0 minutes in our NBA Models. He was slightly disappointing in his first playoff game vs. the Nuggets, but he shot just 8-of-20 from the field. He has some room for improvement in Game 2.
Value
Donte DiVincenzo has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past eight games on FanDuel, yet his salary has remained stagnant over that time frame. He managed to score 24.0 FanDuel points in his last contest despite scoring just three points, and DiVincenzo has averaged 10.4 points per game this season. Expect some positive regression in that department moving forward.
Fast Break
Duncan Robinson was feeling it in Game 1 vs. the Bucks. He came out of the gates red-hot and ultimately finished with seven 3-pointers. The Bucks have struggled to defend 3-point shooters for most of the past three seasons, so Robinson should continue to provide some value in this matchup.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler is coming off an interesting game vs. the Bucks on Saturday. He finished with 47.0 DraftKings points – good for a Plus/Minus of +5.87 – but he was an unmitigated disaster from a scoring perspective. He shot just 4-22 from the field, and he also committed six turnovers. He’s a great bet for some positive regression in those categories on Monday. If that happens, Butler has the potential for a massive performance. He’s one of the strongest plays of the day, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Value
Norman Powell hasn’t provided much fantasy value recently, but he’s playing all the minutes he can handle. He’s currently projected for 38.3 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a ton for someone who costs just $5,400. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.75 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Michael Porter Jr. is another excellent value on DraftKings. His $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he should continue to serve as the Nuggets’ No. 2 option offensively. He finished with 25 points in Game 1 vs. the Blazers despite shooting just 1-10 from 3-point range. Porter shot 44.5% from downtown during the regular season, so he should have better shooting games in the future.
Khris Middleton stands out as the best pure value at the position on FanDuel. He leads all SFs with a Bargain Rating of 78%, and he posted a Plus/Minus of +14.81 in his first matchup vs. the Heat. He was one of their most effective players offensively, and he should continue to find success vs. Miami.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo will not finish in the top three in MVP voting this season, but he has still been one of the best players in fantasy. He’s averaged 1.63 FanDuel points per minute this season, but the Bucks were unsurprisingly conservative with his minutes during the year. Now that we’re in the postseason, Giannis should have the opportunity to spread his wings. He played 45.5 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Heat, which means he played more than 40 minutes before the game went into overtime. If he’s going to continue to see that much playing time, the sky is the limit for Giannis in the postseason.
Value
Robert Covington has been an important role player for the Blazers this season, but that hasn’t always translated into fantasy success. He’s averaged 0.80 FanDuel points per minute this season, and that mark has decreased to 0.72 over the past month. That said, his salary has decreased by -$500 over that time frame, which makes him an interesting buy-low option. He’s currently projected for 34.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.11.
Fast Break
Trevor Ariza has seen his playing time increase in each month of the season, culminating with an average of 30.1 minutes per game during May. He played more than 38.3 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Bucks, and he’s currently projected for 32.9 minutes in tonight’s contest. He’s increased his production to 0.89 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he has plenty of appeal across the industry.
Paul Millsap’s role has decreased drastically for the Nuggets this season, but he’s capable of racking up fantasy points quickly. He’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of minutes to potentially pay off his $3,600 salary. He also should carry minimal ownership, which makes him an interesting punt play for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Center
Stud
It’s a tough call between Giannis and Nikola Jokic for the top overall spot on today’s slate, but I’m giving a slight edge to Jokic. The Nuggets own a slight edge in terms of implied team total, and they have a much friendlier matchup vs. the Blazers. Portland finished 29th in defensive efficiency this season, and Jokic leads all centers with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.31 on FanDuel. He also owns 12 Pro Trends, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. He finished with 53.7 FanDuel points in Game 1 vs. the Blazers despite an uncharacteristically low one assist. Jokic averaged 8.3 assists per game this season, so some additional production in that department gives him the potential for a massive performance.
Value
Brook Lopez saw more than 31 minutes in regulation in the Bucks’ first playoff game, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some serious damage with that much playing time. He’s simply too cheap at $4,600 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic represents another tremendous value on DraftKings. He also owns a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he should see plenty of playing time in this series to try and slow down Jokic. He played nearly 33 minutes in their first playoff matchup, and Nurkic has averaged an elite 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Pictured above: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Credit: Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images
