The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Nets will get Kyrie Irving back in the lineup for tonight’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves, which should result in fewer shot attempts for James Harden. That said, Kevin Durant remains out of the lineup, and Harden has increased his usage rate by +2.3% in games without Durant this season. Overall, he’s averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in that situation.
He should also benefit from his matchup vs. the Timberwolves. They rank just 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Nets’ implied team total of 124.75 points is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. The Pacers rank second in that department, and their implied team total is nearly six points lower than the Nets’ (119.0).
Value
Saban Lee started at point guard for the Pistons on Saturday, and he should draw another start today. Delon Wright was traded to the Kings, while Dennis Smith Jr. will miss his third straight game with an injury. Rodney McGruder is also doubtful, so Lee and the newly-acquired Corey Joseph should handle most of the point guard minutes.
Lee has been very effective when given a chance to play recently. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Russell Westbrook has been absolutely balling recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.03 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. There’s a chance that Bradley Beal is ruled out for tonight’s matchup vs. the Pacers, and Westbrook would become arguably the top stud of the day in that situation. He’s increased his usage rate by +8.2% with Beal off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.47 DraftKings points per minute.
Malcolm Brogdon leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.62, and $6,500 has historically been an excellent price tag for him. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.29 with a comparable salary as a member of the Pacers, including a mark of +4.37 this season (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Kyle Lowry is questionable to return to the Raptors’ lineup after getting the night off on Sunday, but that shouldn’t have much of an impact on Fred VanVleet. He has carried an insane workload recently, logging at least 37.5 minutes in five of his past six games, and he’s currently projected for 39.1 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.26. All those minutes give VanVleet one of the safer floors in fantasy, particularly in a solid matchup vs. the Pistons.
Value
The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown on today’s slate, which gives Marcus Smart a boost in value. Smart has been excellent to begin with of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games on FanDuel, and he’s increased his usage rate by +4.0% with Brown off the court this season. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute in that situation, and his $5,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Fast Break
Svi Mykhailiuk could have some viability as a punt play on today’s slate. The Thunder are going to be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort, and Al Horford has also been shut down for the rest of the season. That opens up plenty of minutes and usage, and Mykhailiuk should be one of the primary beneficiaries. He’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his salary.
Beal has taken a backseat to Westbrook recently, which has caused his price to drop across the industry. That makes him an interesting buy-low target if he’s able to suit up. He’s priced at just $8,800 on FanDuel, and Beal has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.95 with a comparable salary since the start of the 2018 season.
Small Forward
Stud
Small forward doesn’t seem like the best position to pay up on today’s slate. You could go with Luka Doncic on DraftKings, but his matchup isn’t all that appealing and he could be eased into action after missing the past two games.
Kawhi Leonard is probably the safer bet. Tonight’s game between the Bucks and Clippers should feature plenty of points, and the Clippers are still playing a bit shorthanded. Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley are out indefinitely, and Kawhi has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games with both players out of the lineup.
Value
Justin Holiday is a cheap way to get some exposure to the Pacers. Holiday has played a bunch of minutes for Indiana to start with, and he could see a few additional minutes if Doug McDermott is ruled out. He’s officially listed as questionable, but head coach Nate Bjorkgren said he was unable to practice on Sunday and that his ankle is still swollen. That probably puts him closer to doubtful, and NBA guru Justin Phan gives him just a 35% chance of suiting up using the Labs Insiders tool.
Holiday is currently projected for 32.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and that would make him an appealing option at $3,800 vs. the Wizards. They rank first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency this season, so Holiday should be more effective than usual on a per-minute basis.
Fast Break
Rui Hachimura continues to stand out as an excellent mid-range value. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle with Davis Bertans out of the lineup, and he could see even more minutes if Beal is unable to suit up. He’s currently projected for 38.5 minutes vs. the Pacers, which is a ton of playing time for someone with a $5,500 price tag.
Saddiq Bey stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He should serve as one of the Pistons’ offensive focal points with Wright gone and Smith Jr. unavailable, and his matchup vs. the Raptors results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.40.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis is simply too cheap at $8,800 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Wizards. It results in a Bargain Rating of 85%, and Sabonis has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.87 with a comparable salary this season.
The Wizards are also a dream matchup for big men. They struggle on the glass in addition to struggling defensively, so Sabonis should be able to do some serious damage on the interior. Overall, his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the top mark at the position.
Value
Lauri Markkanen was a major disappointment in his last game, but he was limited to just 26.1 minutes in a blowout loss to the Spurs. He should see a few additional minutes tonight vs. the Warriors, and Markkanen has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Warriors are also a solid matchup, giving Markkanen an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.76 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam is one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s been very effective recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s increased his production to 1.19 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He played more than 39.1 minutes with Lowry out of the lineup on Sunday, and he would be looking at another monster workload if he’s ruled out again today.
Jayson Tatum is another member of the Celtics who should benefit from the absence of Brown. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +5.6% with Brown off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.26 FanDuel points per minute.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has quietly started to heat up. He’s scored at least 51.7 FanDuel points in five of his past seven games, and he has a chance to build on that production tonight vs. the Nets. Brooklyn has been a generous fantasy matchup for centers this season, giving Towns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.60 on FanDuel. He has historically been one of the best producers in fantasy on a per-minute basis, so he’s a strong option on Monday.
Value
It’s officially Moses Brown season. With Horford done for the year, Brown will get the opportunity to play all the minutes he can handle for the rest of the season. Brown dominated the Celtics in his last contest – he racked up 17 points and 19 rebounds in the first half alone – and he’s averaged a stout 1.30 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s playing like some who should cost closer to $8,000, so let’s take advantage of his reduced price tag while we still can.
Fast Break
James Wiseman stands out as one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s taken over as the starting center for the Warriors, logging at least 26.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute this season. The Bulls have also been an excellent matchup for centers this season, although that may change after acquiring Nikola Vucevic.
Robert Williams is another center whose price tag hasn’t adjusted to his new role. He’s operating as the Celtics starting center, and he’s played at least 26 minutes in three of his past four games. That may not sound like a ton of playing time for someone who costs $6,500 on FanDuel, but Williams has averaged 1.56 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That’s the top mark at the position among today’s centers.
Pictured above: Moses Brown #9 of the Oklahoma City Thunder
Photo credit: Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images
