Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Darius Garland has been incredible this season, but he’s been particularly lethal over his last 10 games. The MIP candidate has averaged 26.1 points, 10.9 boards, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 triples, and 1.4 steals with seven double-doubles in that span.
The Lakers have allowed the fourth-most points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break at a whopping 118.3, so any team facing them gets an immediate boost. That bodes well for Garland in his matchup with LA tonight, as he’s topped 50 fantasy points four times this season and 60 fantasy points on three more occasions. He’s got an excellent combination of ceiling and affordability.
Value
Jose Alvarado has put on a show over the Pelicans’ last four games, averaging 10.5 points, 6.5 dimes, 3.3 boards and 3.3 swipes. Alvarado has averaged just 14 minutes per game this season, but he’s been on the court for 23.8 over the last four, which is a massive benefit for a guy so effective on a per-minute basis. He’s averaging 1.2 steals per game this season, and we’ve seen just how effective he can be when given additional playing time.
Brandon Ingram is a GTD decision tonight due to an illness, and Devonte’ Graham may be unavailable due to a hip injury. If both sit, we can count on Alvarado to deliver another solid performance at a bargain salary, and he’s got a quality matchup with Charlotte.
Fast Break
Cade Cunningham returned from a two-game absence Saturday and posted 15 points, 10 assists, six boards, two steals and a block, good for over 40 fantasy points. Over his last seven games, the No. 1 pick has averaged 22.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 2.1 triples and 1.6 stocks. He’s eclipsed 50 fantasy points three times while averaging better than 43 in that span. He’s got a highly favorable matchup with the Blazers tonight.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Our stud and value both come from the Jazz, and we’ll kick things off with Donovan Mitchell. With Mike Conley out of action, Mitchell should function as the primary scorer and playmaker:
- Mitchell’s stats with Conley in the lineup (51 games): 25.4 points, 5.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds
- Mitchell’s stats without Conley in the lineup (7 games): 29.6 points, 6.4 assists, 5.7 rebounds
It’s pretty apparent that Mitchell excels in Conley’s absence, and tonight’s matchup with Brooklyn offers a solid 229.5 over/under. The Nets are two-point favorites, so this should be a close, high-scoring affair, perfect for a productive fantasy outing.
Value
Jordan Clarkson’s stock has been on the rise recently, but his price sure hasn’t. Clarkson has scored at least 20 points in three straight and four of his last five. He’s taken full advantage of Utah’s multiple absences and may have an opportunity to do so again tonight.
Not only does Conley remains out, but Bojan Bogdanovic is a GTD after missing four straight. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year has averaged 20.5 points in eight games without Conley this season, and he’s got a tremendous ceiling when his shot is falling, as evidenced by last week’s 45-point outburst. He should be a staple in lineups tonight.
Fast Break
Anthony Edwards is criminally undervalued on tonight’s slate at just $7,400 on DraftKings and $7,800 on FanDuel. Over his last two games, Ant has averaged better than 45 fantasy points while scoring at least 25 points in each contest. His ceiling is sky-high, and if Karl-Anthony Towns ends up sitting, Edwards would be an even better option. Tonight’s matchup with Dallas also offers a strong Opponent Plus/Minus.
Small Forward
Stud
The NBA’s second-leading scorer of all time will be back in action tonight, facing his former team as the Lakers struggle to grab another win. LeBron James passed Karl Malone on the NBA’s all-time scoring list Saturday, finishing that game with 38/10/6 as the Lakers fell to the Wizards.
King James has scored at least 30 points in five of his last six as he continues to handle a massive workload. In 17 career games against the Cavaliers, LeBron has averaged 29.1 points, 7.2 assists, 6.9 rebounds, 2.3 stocks and 1.8 triples, so a strong performance would not be unprecedented.
Value
Grant Williams has played a key role for Boston off the bench this season, averaging a career-best 23.8 minutes per contest. His playing time has increased over his last two games, with Williams seeing the court a total of 56 minutes.
What do Williams’ last two games have in common? Both were blowouts, as tonight’s matchup figures to be. The Celtics are 13.5-point favorites on the road at Oklahoma City, easily the biggest spread on the slate.
Fast Break
Deni Avdija has scored at least 30 fantasy points in two of his last three, but he’s been largely ignored by DFS players. Kyle Kuzma is a GTD after sitting out Saturday against the Lakers, and his absence would be highly beneficial to Avdija’s value. Avdija is just $4,400 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel in a matchup that offers a huge Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential, as well as a healthy 234.5-point total.
Power Forward
Stud
Jayson Tatum gets an excellent matchup with the Thunder tonight, as Oklahoma City has allowed the third-most fantasy points overall and the second-most to forwards this season. Tatum posted 33/8/5 and a block in his only previous meeting with the Thunder this season.
In March, Boston’s All-Star forward is averaging 34.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 4.4 triples. For a guy who can put up 60-70 fantasy points on any given night, his sub-$10k salary is quite attractive on such a busy slate.
Value
Aleksej Pokusevski should be on your radar tonight given his low price point and recent success. Poku has started each of the Thunder’s last two games and averaged 8.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks across 33.0 minutes.
He comes in at just $6,000 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel, making him a fantastic value with a ceiling of over 40 fantasy points. He’s currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 33.4 fantasy points in six games with at least 30 minutes this season (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Jaxson Hayes is the first of two Pelicans’ big men we’ll highlight in today’s article. The youngster out of Texas has seen his playing time increase steadily over the season, averaging 31.8 minutes per game over his last five. In that span, he’s averaged 15.6 points, 7.0 boards, 2.0 stocks and 1.4 triples, good for 29.7 fantasy points. Tonight’s matchup with Charlotte is highly favorable, and Hayes is just $5,400 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
We’re going to bypass the top-dollar options for tonight’s slate in favor of a player with fewer impediments and a lower salary. Joel Embiid has been on a roll all season, but he faces a stingy Miami defense. Towns is questionable, and Bam Adebayo faces an equally-tough matchup with Philly.
Instead, we’re rolling with Jonas Valanciunas. He’s moderately priced and may go overlooked in favor of some of the more expensive players listed above, and we can take advantage of potentially-low ownership. JV actually had one of his worst games against the Hornets when the two teams met on Mar. 11, posting just 10 points and eight boards.
Charlotte, however, remains an excellent matchup for opposing bigs, and Valanciunas shouldn’t be ignored. In four games since that dud, he’s averaged 22.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 stocks and 1.0 triples.
Value
Alperen Sengun has averaged 25.7 fantasy points across 23.3 minutes over his last three games. He’s been a quality per-minute option all season, and the recent stretch of minutes in the low-20s has been highly encouraging for his value.
The rookie’s price tag remains far too low considering his potential upside, but it’s a product of his rock-bottom floor, meaning he should be considered for tournaments but off-limits in cash games. Our model projects him to play 22 minutes in tonight’s favorable matchup with Washington, and if he produces his usual 1.12 fantasy points per minute, he’ll easily score 25 and return value.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic has averaged a paltry 34 fantasy points per game since the All-Star break, and his salary has dipped significantly as a result. That means we should fade him in cash contests but get plenty of exposure in tournaments.
Vooch was quite productive in January and early February, averaging nearly 45 fantasy points across 26 games. He’s got 13 games of at least 50 fantasy points to his credit this season, topping out with a 70-point performance against the Pacers on Feb. 4. You’re paying for his floor at his current salary, but there’s a ton of value to be had if he even comes close to his ceiling.
