The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic has been a major disappointment recently. He hasn’t played in two of the Mavericks’ past four games, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus on FanDuel in both games where he was active. Overall, he’s averaged just 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is a sizable decrease from his season average of 1.48.
That’s caused his salary to drop to just $10,200 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Clippers. It’s a tough matchup – LA ranks just 24th in pace this season – but that’s simply too cheap for Doncic. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus +6.12 with a comparable salary since the start of last season (per the Trends tool), which makes him a prime buy-low candidate.
Value
The Nuggets are going to be without Monte Morris for the second-straight game, which means Facundo Campazzo should be looking at another expanded workload. He’s coming off 26.8 minutes in his last contest, and he’s currently projected for 25.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Campazzo is very affordable at $3,500 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.74.
Fast Break
Dejounte Murray has the potential to carry a huge workload tonight for the Spurs. DeMar DeRozan and Derrick White could be out of the lineup – DeRozan due to personal reasons, White due to rest – while LaMarcus Aldridge remains away from the team. Murray has increased his usage rate by +2.8% with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.19 DraftKings points per minute.
Chris Paul stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $6,800, resulting in a position-high Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s scored at least 33.5 FanDuel points in five of his past seven games, which would be more than enough to return value at his current salary.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is still listed as a shooting guard on FanDuel, and he stands out as one of the top studs on the slate. He’s increased his production to 1.51 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he should continue to carry a massive workload with Kevin Durant out of the lineup. He’s played at least 37.7 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s projected for a slate-high 38.0 minutes tonight vs. the Knicks.
Value
The Bucks’ offense has been rolling recently, scoring at least 125 points in back-to-back games, and they have a chance for another massive performance on Monday. They’re taking on the Wizards, who have been arguably the best opponent in fantasy this season. They play at the fastest pace in the league, and they also rank just 27th in defensive efficiency. The Bucks are currently implied for 125.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate by nearly five full points.
Donte DiVincenzo is a cheap way to grab some exposure to that massive total. He’s coming off 32.1 FanDuel points over 29 minutes in his last game, which was also against the Wizards. He’s a steal at just $4,500 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%.
Fast Break
Caris LeVert was able to suit up on Saturday for the first time since being acquired by the Pacers, and he finished with 20.4 FanDuel points over 26.9 minutes. He should continue to be eased into the rotation, but LeVert can do some serious damage in limited playing time. He’s averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he managed to rack up fantasy points in his last game despite shooting just 5-14 from the field. He’s arguably the best value of the day on FanDuel, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Finding a shooting guard is a lot tougher on DraftKings, but Rodney McGruder stands out as a nice value. He’s priced at just $3,400, and he’s coming off nearly 28.4 minutes in his last outing. He’s projected for a similar workload tonight vs. the Spurs, and McGruder has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James hasn’t been as consistent as usual recently, but he’s displayed an excellent ceiling. He’s scored at least 59.25 DraftKings points in two of his past four games, which gives him nice upside at his current salary. He likely won’t carry much ownership on today’s slate – there are plenty of other studs who will garner more attention – which makes him an interesting pivot vs. the Warriors. Golden State has played at the second-fastest pace this season, which makes them a nice fantasy matchup.
Value
The Knicks are dealing with their fair share of injuries in the backcourt at the moment. Derrick Rose remains out of the lineup due to health and safety protocols, while Elfrid Payton is currently listed as doubtful. Frank Ntilikina drew the start at point guard in their last contest, but he was limited to just seven minutes.
Reggie Bullock was the bigger beneficiary. He played nearly 37 minutes in that contest, and he’s currently projected for 32.0 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a lot of potential playing time at just $3,500 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Hornets are taking on the Kings on Monday, which is an absolute dream matchup. They rank dead-last in defensive efficiency this season, and the Hornets’ implied team total of 121.0 ranks second on the slate. That makes Gordon Hayward an interesting target. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, so he has some appeal as a buy-low option.
Khris Middleton is another potential option for the Bucks tonight. He managed to rack up 41.0 FanDuel points vs. the Wizards on Saturday despite shooting just 3-12 from the field. That means he has the potential for a bigger performance tonight if his jump shot starts falling. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been making it look easy of late. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.49 over his past 10 games. He racked up a triple-double vs. the Wizards on Saturday, finishing with 33 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists, and he also shot an efficient 12-19 from the field.
The only concern with Giannis today is his likely ownership. He will be extremely chalky, but that’s what happens when the best fantasy player in the league gets the best possible matchup. Fade him at your own risk.
Value
If you’re looking for a cheaper option for the Bucks, consider Bobby Portis. He’s not going to play a ton of minutes – he logged just 21.7 in the Bucks’ last game – but that doesn’t stop him from racking up fantasy points. He’s averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he finished with 27.1 FanDuel points vs. the Wizards on Saturday. Portis is underpriced at $4,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 84%.
Fast Break
Julius Randle leads the position with a whopping 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he’s another player who should benefit from the Knicks’ current PG situation. Randle took on more playmaking responsibilities with Rose and Payton out of the lineup in their last game, and the result was a triple-double. He ultimately finished with 61.4 FanDuel points, and he has the potential for another massive performance Monday vs. the Nets.
Draymond Green stands out as one of the better values at the position on DraftKings, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.94 over his past 10 games, and he’s increased his production to 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His current salary doesn’t reflect that increased production.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic rounds out the studs on today’s slate, and he certainly has plenty of merits. He leads the center position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he trails only Giannis in that department on DraftKings. He’s also in a solid spot vs. the Pacers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.82 on FanDuel. His fantasy stock does take a small hit with Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green back in the lineup, but Jokic should continue to play huge minutes for the Nuggets. His average of 1.59 FanDuel points per minute over the past month trails only Giannis’ on today’s slate.
Value
Cody Zeller is popping in our NBA Models as one of the strongest plays on the slate. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games since returning to the lineup, and he owns an elite matchup vs. the Kings. They have struggled against opposing centers this season, giving Zeller an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.58 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Jakob Poeltl is another center with a great matchup. He’s taking on the Pistons, which gives Poeltl an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.46 on FanDuel. He should see a solid handful of minutes on Monday given the Spurs’ injury situation, and Poeltl has averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Jonas Valanciunas has been playing more minutes than usual of late. He’s logged at least 29.8 minutes in three straight games, and he’s eclipsed at least 32.4 minutes in two of them. Valanciunas is one of the best fantasy centers in the league on a per-minute basis, so any extra playing time makes him a very appealing target.
