NBA DFS Breakdown (Monday, Jun. 28): Can Paul George Save the Clippers’ Season?

Monday features Game 5 of the Western Conference finals between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers starting at 9 p.m. ET. We’ll be breaking it down using the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models.

If you are unfamiliar with single-game/showdown slates, check out my primers for DraftKings and FanDuel before constructing rosters.

Series Overview

The Suns will have the first chance to punch a ticket to the NBA Finals on Monday. They own a 3-1 series lead, so they just need to win one of the next three games to get a shot at their first NBA championship. They’ve made two previous trips to the Finals, but they’ve come up short on both occasions.

They are expected to take care of business on Monday. The Clippers are still playing without Kawhi Leonard, and his absence has obviously been a massive factor. The Clippers increased their Net Rating by +12.5 points per 100 possessions with Leonard on the floor this season, which put him in the 97th percentile for qualified players (per Cleaning the Glass). That means he was one of the most impactful players in the entire league.

The Suns are currently listed as 5-point favorites in Game 5, and they’ve moved to approximately -5000 to win the series.

Despite the large numbers, the Clippers have actually kept this series competitive without their best player. The Suns won Game 2 on a last-minute alley-oop, and their other two wins have been by a total of 11 points. The biggest blowout in this series was the game that the Clippers won, with the finals margin being 13 points.

I’m expecting another close contest in Game 5, and this Clippers’ team has been dangerous all postseason with their backs against the wall.

Studs

If the Clippers do prolong this series, expect Paul George to be a big reason why. He missed two crucial free throws down the stretch in Game 2, but other than that, he’s been fantastic during the postseason. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 13 of his past 14 games on DraftKings, and he’s elevated his game with Leonard out of the lineup. George has scored at least 54.75 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, and he’s averaged 54.0 DraftKings points in those contests.

George owns the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in our NBA Models, making him an elite option across the industry. He should be in all of your lineups and warrants consideration for the Captain spot on DraftKings, as well.

Devin Booker put together a huge performance in Game 1 of this series, finishing with 77.75 DraftKings points thanks to 40 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to replicate that production in the past three contests. He hasn’t even come particularly close to returning value, scoring 29.5 DraftKings points or less in all three games.

Part of that is due to the return of Chris Paul. With Paul back in the lineup, Booker doesn’t have to do nearly the same amount of work as a distributor. That’s a major negative for his fantasy stock. The bigger issue though has been his poor shooting numbers. He’s shot just 18-59 from the field and 2-15 from 3-point range over his past three games, which makes him an interesting regression candidate. Booker is obviously a much better scorer than his recent numbers indicate, and he should carry reduced ownership in Game 5. He’s a nice buy-low option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.

Paul is next on the pricing spectrum, and he’s been excellent this postseason. He’s scored at least 43.0 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, with the lone exception being his most recent contest. However, he actually posted his highest usage rate of the playoffs in that game, but he shot just 6-22 from the field. He owns the second-highest ceiling in this contest after George.

Deandre Ayton has been one of the biggest stars of the postseason. We’re about one more good game away from some talking head writing the “are we sure this guy isn’t better than Luka Doncic?” column. Gotta love overreaction season.

Ayton is coming off a massive performance in Game 4, which has caused his price tag to skyrocket across the industry. He’s now the second-most expensive player on FanDuel, and his price has increased by $1,000 on DraftKings, as well. He hasn’t shown the ability to consistently score more than 45 DraftKings points during the postseason, so he’s a fade for me at his current price tag.

Midrange

Reggie Jackson has served as the Clippers’ No. 2 option offensively with Leonard out of the lineup, and he’s fared well in that role. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all six games without Leonard during the postseason, but he is coming off his worst outing in Game 4. He scored just 28.75 DraftKings points over 40.5 minutes after scoring at least 33.75 DraftKings points in each of the prior five games.

Still, I remain optimistic about Jackson. He actually posted his highest usage rate of the postseason in Game 4, but he shot just 8-24 from the field and 2-9 from 3-point range. Expect more of the same from Jackson in Game 5, and he’s an elite option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.

There’s a pretty large drop-off after Jackson. Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder are next up in DraftKings’ pricing, and neither player is a sure thing. Both players have the potential to pay off their current salaries, but they’re going to need hot shooting nights to do it. Both players stand out as stronger options on FanDuel, particularly Crowder given his Bargain Rating of 84%.

Ivica Zubac continues to look like a free square on DraftKings. He has seen a sizable price increase after Game 4, but he’s still too cheap at $6,800. He owns a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s scored at least 30.75 DraftKings points in three straight games. Zubac should command massive ownership, but anything less than 100% is a mistake.

Cameron Payne has delivered some big games for the Suns during the playoffs, but his two best performances came with Paul out of the lineup. He’s now priced up across the industry, but he played just 19.9 minutes in Game 4. It’s hard to see him paying off his current price tag with such minimal playing time.

Terance Mann has leaped some of the Clippers’ wings in the pecking order. He’s logged at least 32 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s responded with at least 19.0 DraftKings points in both contests. Unfortunately, he’s been priced up for Game 5, so he’s going to need to do more to return value on Monday. He’ll have a chance to do that, but I think there are better options.

Nicolas Batum is not one of them. His playing time is way down, and he’s projected for just 17.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s not worth consideration on Monday.

Values & Punts

• Marcus Morris ($4,400 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Morris is another Clippers’ wing who has seen less playing time recently. That said, his price has dropped considerably, and he’s still projected for around 25 minutes in Game 5. Morris has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has the potential to pay off his current salary.
• Cameron Johnson ($4,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Johnson has taken on a slightly larger role for the Suns in this series, and he’s scored at least 17.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. His floor is low, but he does have some upside.
• Patrick Beverley ($3,200 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel): Beverley is one of the best values on this slate on DraftKings. He’s projected for 32.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and while he’s only averaged 0.62 DraftKings points per minute over his past six games, that should be more than enough playing time for him to return value.
• Luke Kennard ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Kennard is an interesting contrarian punt play on DraftKings. He’s not expected to see a ton of playing time, but he does have the potential to get hot from 3-point range.
• Dario Saric ($1,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Saric is the cheapest option I’m considering on Monday. He’s increased his production to 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should see a handful of minutes in Game 5.