Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. Using the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models tool, here’s a break down of the top DFS plays for each position on tonight’s slate.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been the best player in fantasy recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight straight games on DraftKings, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.11 over his past 10 games. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among today’s players.
Westbrook takes the floor in a great spot vs. the Thunder. They rank just 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 121.75 is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. Westbrook also stands out as one of the best pure values on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 88%.
Value
The Pistons are going to be playing extremely shorthanded on Monday. They’ve ruled out Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Cory Joseph, Dennis Smith Jr., Wayne Ellington, Sekou Doumbouya, and Rodney McGruder, which just doesn’t leave the team with a ton of options.
That means is safe to fire up Killian Hayes. He started the last time that the Pistons rested their veterans, and he responded with 36.0 DraftKings points over 26.8 minutes. Hayes has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so you can expect him to be productive as a featured player.
Fast Break
The Nuggets are virtually out of point guards at the moment. Jamal Murray tore his ACL and has been ruled out for the rest of the season, and Monte Morris is also out of the lineup for Monday’s matchup vs. the Grizzlies. That leaves Facundo Campazzo to handle most of the point guard responsibilities. He’s currently projected for 33.4 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a nice value option.
The Spurs will be an interesting team to monitor on Monday. DeMar DeRozan sat out their game on Saturday, and Dejounte Murray and Derrick White would both see a boost in value if he’s out once again. White is a particularly nice value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%.
Make sure to monitor DeRozan’s status using the Labs Insiders tool.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has not been playing his best basketball recently, but he is starting to turn things around. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel, and he’s coming off 49.1 FanDuel points in his last game.
He benefits from the same elite matchup as Westbrook, and he remains very affordable at $8,500. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%, and Beal has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.90 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool). He remains an excellent buy-low option.
Value
Frank Jackson is another member of the Pistons who’s worth some consideration today. He’s extremely affordable at $3,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he should see a solid handful of minutes with all the Pistons’ regulars out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 26.4 minutes, which is a lot of playing time for someone who is essentially priced at the minimum.
Fast Break
The Heat are another team that could be a bit shorthanded today. Jimmy Butler missed yesterday’s contest vs. the Nets due to an ankle injury, and Duncan Robinson played 34.3 minutes in his absence. Robinson isn’t the best producer on a per-minute basis, but he has increased his fantasy output to 0.73 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That’s good enough to get the job done.
Dillon Brooks is currently questionable – along with a host of other Grizzlies’ players – but he would be an interesting option if he can suit up. The Grizzlies have ruled out Jonas Valanciunas, so Brooks has the potential to serve as their No. 2 offensive option behind Ja Morant. He’s increased his usage rate to 27.3% with Valanciunas off the court this season, and he’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Small Forward
Stud
Michael Porter Jr. has been a consistent source of value recently. He posted a negative Plus/Minus in his last game, but that was due mostly to the fact that the game turned into a blowout. Prior to that contest, he had returned value on DraftKings in seven straight games. He’s seen a slight usage bump with Murray and Morris off the court this season, and he’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in that situation. He’s currently projected for 36.5 minutes vs. the Grizzlies, which makes him a nice option across the industry.
Value
The Wizards are going to be without Rui Hachimura on Monday, which opens the door for Deni Avdija to assume a larger role. Avdija has had a slightly disappointing rookie season, but he clearly has plenty of talent after being drafted ninth overall in 2020. He’s priced at just $3,600 vs. the Thunder and is projected for 29.7 minutes, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.37 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Saddiq Bey is a good bet to lead the Pistons in minutes on Monday. He played more than 39.2 minutes the last time the Pistons rested their veterans, and he responded with 34.4 FanDuel points. That makes him underpriced at $5,200 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings.
P.J. Dozier is another potential value option for the Nuggets. He’s played at least 23.9 minutes in back-to-back games, including 28.0 minutes two games ago. With Morris joining Murray on the sidelines, the coast should be clear for Dozier to see at least that much playing time vs. the Grizzlies.
Power Forward
Stud
I’m crossing Giannis Antetokounmpo off my list again for today. He tried his best to return value on Saturday, but he basically needs to play perfectly to pay off his current salary with the number of minutes he’s playing. He might be able to crack the 30-minute plateau today, but he owns a dreadful matchup vs. the Suns. If he burns me, so be it.
Domantas Sabonis seems like a better option if you’re paying up at the position, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 84%. He was just added to the injury report as questionable, but $8,700 is a very appealing price tag for Sabonis if he’s active. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.48 with a comparable salary, and he owns a solid Opponent Plus/Minus vs. the Spurs.
Value
Isaiah Stewart is one of the strongest values of the day. He absolutely dominated the last time that Plumlee was out of the lineup, finishing with 49.7 FanDuel points over 31.7 minutes. He didn’t see as much playing time with Plumlee back in the lineup on Saturday, but he still racked up a very impressive 39.9 FanDuel points over 24.3 minutes.
Stewart has immense upside at his price tag Monday vs. the Cavaliers, who have been an extremely friendly matchup for big men. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.36 on FanDuel, which is one of the top marks at the position.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Pistons, Josh Jackson is another player who should provide value. He’s averaged a stout 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a nice combination at just $5,100 on DraftKings. He posted a usage rate of 34.9% the last time the Pistons rested their veterans, and he responded with 42.75 DraftKings points.
Brandon Clarke is listed as questionable for the Grizzlies, and they would be essentially out of big men if he’s unable to suit up. Xavier Tillman would be one of their lone remaining options, which would make him an appealing target at $3,400 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can definitely return value with a few extra minutes.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is making a late push for the MVP award. You could argue that he’s been the most valuable player in the league when on the court this season, but he has missed nearly one third of the 76ers’ games. He should be in the lineup tonight vs. the Warriors, and they simply have no one who can stop him.
Embiid has averaged a dominant 1.61 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he could see a few additional minutes if Dwight Howard is ultimately ruled out. Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Seth Curry, and George Hill are also listed as questionable, so Embiid could also carry an even larger usage rate than usual.
Value
The Heat are another team that just dropped a massive injury report for Monday. Not only is Butler questionable after missing their last game, but Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have been ruled out. That means Dedmon could move into the starting lineup, and he’s averaged 1.75 DraftKings points per minute in limited playing time with the Heat. He managed 10 points and 10 rebounds as a backup to Adebayo on Sunday, so he has nice upside as a starter.
Fast Break
Tristan Thompson was a massive disappointment in the Celtics last game, but he did see a few additional minutes with Robert Williams out of the lineup. Thompson has averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so there’s no reason to avoid him following one poor performance.
It’s a tough call between Embiid and Nikola Jokic for top billing at center on Monday, and I certainly wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to go with Jokic. He’s been phenomenal this season with Murray and Morris off the court, averaging 1.70 DraftKings points per minute. He’s increased his usage rate by +8.3% and his assist rate by +5.5% in that situation, and he’ll be squaring off against an extremely thin Grizzlies’ frontcourt.
Pictured above: Josh Jackson #20 of the Detroit Pistons
Photo credit: Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images
