Tuesday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. We’ll be using the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models to break down the the top plays on tonight’s slate.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has struggled a bit recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.37 over his past 10 games. That includes a dismal performance in his last game, where he managed just 18.7 FanDuel points over 36.7 minutes.
That’s caused his salary to drop to just $8,800 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Celtics, and he’s an appealing buy-low target at that price tag. It results in a Bargain Rating of 84%, and Lillard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.22 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Value
The Raptors are going to be extremely thin at point guard once again for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Hawks. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet have both been ruled out, which means Malachi Flynn should be looking at another heavy workload. He’s played four games without both players this season, and he’s averaged a stout 35.25 DraftKings points over 35.3 minutes in those contests. His price is slightly up across the industry, but he still stands out as one of the best values on the slate.
Fast Break
Malcolm Brogdon has the potential to provide excellent value at just $6,700 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Brogdon is coming off a whopping 62.75 DraftKings points in his last game. He faces a tough matchup vs. the Clippers – they rank 10th in defensive efficiency – but Brogdon is simply too cheap to ignore at that price tag. The Clippers are also a bit less intimidating with Kawhi Leonard out of the lineup.
The Celtics have one of the top matchups on the slate. They’re taking on the Trail Blazers, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency. With that in mind, Kemba Walker makes a lot of sense at $6,600 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. His playing time has been up with Evan Fournier out of the lineup, and he’s currently projected for 34.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Walker has averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he should be able to return value with that much playing time in an elite matchup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell has been absolutely balling recently. He’s scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he’s racked up at least 57.0 DraftKings points in three of them. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is an outstanding mark.
Mitchell is in another outstanding spot Tuesday vs. the Thunder. The Thunder represent an excellent matchup – they rank just tied for 21st in defensive efficiency – and the Jazz’s implied team total of 120.0 is the top mark on the slate. There’s also a chance that Jordan Clarkson is ruled out for the fourth straight game. He was doubtful heading into yesterday’s matchup vs. the Wizards before ultimately getting ruled out, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s sidelined once again.
Value
The Hawks are another team with the potential to be shorthanded tonight. Danilo Gallinari is currently doubtful, and Trae Young is listed as questionable. Both players were out of the lineup in their last game, and Lou Williams was asked to play nearly 29 minutes off the bench. Williams is having a down year, but he’s still capable of racking up fantasy points when he’s on the court. He’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he would be a very appealing value play if Young and Gallinari are ruled out again.
Fast Break
Paul George is definitely an option for the top shooting guard spot on today’s slate. The Clippers have already ruled out Leonard for tonight’s matchup vs. the Pacers, and George has unsurprisingly been the biggest beneficiary with Leonard off the court this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.2% in that situation, resulting in an average of 1.29 DraftKings points per minute.
Things keep getting worse and worse for the Hornets from an injury perspective. LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward are already out of the lineup due to injuries, and P.J. Washington and Terry Rozier are expected to join them tonight. That leaves Devonte’ Graham to handle most of the offensive responsibilities. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.6% with all four players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.23 DraftKings points per minute.
Small Forward
Stud
Small forward is not a position where it makes a ton of sense to pay up at on Tuesday. There are a ton of excellent mid-range and value options, including Bojan Bogdanovic. He’s coming off a massive 42.75 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he has the potential for another big game if Clarkson is sidelined.
Make sure to utilize the Labs’ Insiders tool for any updates on Clarkson and the rest of Tuesday’s players.
Value
The Hornets have plenty of minutes available on Tuesday, and Caleb Martin should grab a handful of them. He’s currently projected for 27.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings and the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and he’s tough to pass up at those price tags.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Hornets, Miles Bridges leads the position with 38.2 projected minutes on today’s slate. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.87 when projected for at least 34 minutes, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in five of his past six games. Bridges is also always a threat to throw down an absolute sledgehammer, which isn’t relevant for fantasy but is still very fun:
Someone needs to check on the Hornets commentator after this dunk 😂 pic.twitter.com/osiK6cBQ58
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 11, 2021
If you do want to spend up at small forward, Jaylen Brown seems like your best option. He benefits from the same elite matchup as Walker, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past three games. He also leads the position in Pro Trends.
Power Forward
Stud
Pascal Siakam should be very involved for the Raptors on Tuesday. He’s played at least 38.3 minutes in two of his past three games, and he could approach that threshold again with Lowry and VanVleet out of the lineup. Overall, he’s averaged 38.3 minutes per game in three games without Lowry and VanVleet this season. He hasn’t seen much of a boost on a per-minute basis in that situation, but Siakam already averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season. The boost in volume should be more than enough to make him a value at his current salary across the industry.
Value
Jalen McDaniels has been doing work recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in three straight games, and he’s scored at least 38.5 DraftKings points in two of those contests. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so it’s not surprising that he’s been effective given a boost in playing time. He should be looking at another expanded workload on Tuesday given the Hornets’ current injury situation, which makes him a steal at just $4,300 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis has shifted from power forward to center with Myles Turner out of the lineup, and he’s scored at least 47.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He hasn’t even played many minutes in those contests – he’s logged between 29.7 and 32.7 minutes in both games – so he has excellent upside if he sees a few additional minutes Tuesday vs. the Clippers.
Marcus Morris scored 33 points for the Clippers in their last contest, and he finished with 41.2 FanDuel points over 36.0 minutes. He may not see quite as many minutes vs. the Pacers – he’s currently projected for 30.6 minutes in our NBA Models – but that should still be enough for him to return value with Leonard out of the lineup.
Center
Stud
Chris Boucher has played at least 30.3 minutes in three of his past four games, and Boucher is capable of doing some serious damage with that much playing time. He’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s simply too cheap on DraftKings at $6,900. His current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, which is one of the top marks on the slate.
Value
The Hornets have a pair of interesting value centers on Tuesday. Cody Zeller should start at the center position, and he’s averaged a stout 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s scored at least 36.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and his minutes should be solidified with Washington out of the lineup.
Washington’s absence also means Bismack Biyombo should rejoin the rotation. He’s played just 7.6 total minutes over the Hornets’ past three games, but he’s currently projected for 22.0 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him a viable punt play at just $3,000 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Ivica Zubac has one of the best individual matchups at the position. The Pacers have been dreadful against opposing centers this season, giving Zubac an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.40 on FanDuel. He should also see a solid workload in this matchup with Leonard and Serge Ibaka both sidelined. He played more than 35.3 minutes in his last game, and he responded with 36.5 FanDuel points.
Rudy Gobert is an interesting buy-low candidate on FanDuel. He’s struggled recently, which has caused his price tag to dip to just $8,000. That said, he leads the position with 10 Pro Trends, and Gobert has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.65 with a comparable price tag.
Pictured above: Miles Bridges #0 of the Charlotte Hornets
Photo Credit: Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images
