Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. We’ll use the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models to break down the slate.
Point Guard
Stud
Ja Morant has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s in another great spot vs. the Bulls on Monday. Chicago has struggled against opposing point guards this season, giving Morant an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.74 on FanDuel. The Grizzlies’ implied team total of 115.5 is also the sixth-highest mark on the slate.
Morant should also continue to benefit from the Grizzlies’ current injury situation. De’Anthony Melton and Justise Winslow are both out of the lineup, and Morant has seen a slight boost in value in 13 games without both players this season.
Value
The Nets are going to be a prime source of value on Monday. They will be without James Harden and Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Durant is still expected to be on a minute’s limit in just his third game following an extended injury absence. That opens up a ton of usage and minutes for the rest of the roster.
Chris Chiozza stands out at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s averaged a stout 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off that price tag.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic is in a brutal spot tonight vs. the 76ers, who rank second in the league in defensive efficiency. He also just hasn’t been very good recently from a fantasy perspective, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.61 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. Still, he’s impossible to ignore at just $10,200. That is extremely cheap for Doncic, who has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.68 with a comparable price tag since the start of the 2019-20 season (per the Trends tool).
Dejounte Murray has been playing some of his best basketball of the season recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games on FanDuel, and he posted a Plus/Minus of -0.05 in his only exception. He’s in a great spot tonight vs. the Magic, who have allowed an average of 116.1 points per 100 possessions since the trade deadline.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The top matchup of the day belongs to the Jazz. They’re taking on the Wizards, who rank first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency this season. That’s an elite combination for fantasy purposes, especially for a team that can score the ball like the Jazz. They’re currently implied for 122.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate.
The Jazz will also be playing shorthanded in this matchup. Mike Conley will rest on the first leg of a back-to-back, while Jordan Clarkson is listed as doubtful. Donovan Mitchell should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of their absences.
He’s increased his usage rate by +2.2% and his assist rate by +6.0% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.38 DraftKings points per minute. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him exceed that threshold in an elite matchup, which makes him one of the strongest options on the slate.
Value
Bruce Brown is another potential source of value for the Nets on Monday. He’s currently projected for 30.9 minutes in our NBA Models, and Brown has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s also an elite value on DraftKings, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Joe Ingles should move into the starting lineup for the Jazz, and he’s another viable target vs. the Wizards. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute with Conley and Clarkson off the court this season, and he’s currently projected for 34.1 minutes. He’s a particularly nice value on FanDuel, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%.
Bradley Beal has been in-and-out of the lineup for the Wizards recently, which has caused his price tag to drop to just $8,200 on FanDuel. That is crazy low for Beal under normal circumstances. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of +6.80 with a comparable salary since the start of last season, so he has excellent upside if he sees his usual workload. He should also command minimal ownership since most people will likely pay up for Mitchell instead.
Small Forward
Stud
As usual, small forward is arguably the weakest position on today’s slate. That said, you could pay up for Durant at the position on FanDuel. He has the potential to return value even in limited minutes on Monday. He’s posted a ridiculous 49.9% usage rate with Irving, Harden, and LaMarcus Aldridge off the court since acquiring Harden from the Rockets, resulting in an average of 1.71 FanDuel points per minute.
It’s not over a particularly large sample size – he’s played just 22 minutes in that situation – but it makes sense that Durant would carry a huge usage rate without Irving and Harden. The Nets are also still expected to be excellent offensively on Monday. They’re implied for 120.5 points vs. the Timberwolves, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Next up for the Jazz is Bojan Bogdanovic. He hasn’t had a particularly strong season this year after being one of Utah’s best players in 2019-20. He’s averaging roughly 5.5 fewer points per game, and he’s also shooting just 41.5% from the field.
However, he has increased his production to 0.84 DraftKings points per minute with Clarkson and Conley off the floor this season, and he should see plenty of playing time vs. the Wizards. He’s currently projected for 33.9 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s affordable across the industry.
Fast Break
Kent Bazemore is vastly underpriced at $4,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s coming off more than 32 minutes in his last contest, and he should see another large workload on Monday with Kelly Oubre and James Wiseman out of the lineup.
The Pelicans could fly a bit under the radar on Monday. Teams like the Nets and Jazz should draw the majority of the attention, but the Pelicans own an elite matchup as well. They’re taking on the Kings, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season. Brandon Ingram could be a nice contrarian target, especially on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 80%.
Power Forward
Stud
Christian Wood leads the PF position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last outing, but he saw reduced minutes in a blowout loss. He scored at least 38.5 FanDuel points in his previous two contests, so this is a nice bounce-back spot.
Value
The Nets have some appealing options at power forward, but the preferred target varies by site.
On FanDuel, Blake Griffin makes a lot of sense at just $4,600. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he has the potential to see a solid handful of minutes with Aldridge out of the lineup.
On DraftKings, Jeff Green provides more value. His $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he should see significantly more playing time. He’s currently projected for 32.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.70.
Fast Break
Royce O’Neale is an even cheaper option across the industry, and he’s projected for 34.8 minutes on today’s slate. He hasn’t been nearly as good as Green or Griffin on a per-minute basis, but he should be able to return value through sheer volume.
Zion Williamson is one of my favorite tournament options on the slate. He should benefit from the absences of Lonzo Ball and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and he has immense upside vs. the Kings. Zion has done the vast majority of his damage in the paint this season, and no team in basketball allows more points in the paint per game than the Kings.
Center
Stud
There are plenty of studs to consider at center, but Rudy Gobert stands out as arguably the top option. He’s not a particularly gifted offensive player, but that hasn’t stopped him from averaging 1.35 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should be able to rack up tons of rebounds and easy dunks vs. the Wizards, who have struggled against opposing centers this season.
Value
Nicolas Claxton is basically a free square on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s currently projected for nearly 21 minutes in our NBA Models. That may not sound like a ton of playing time, but Claxton has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season. It’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t return value with that much playing time vs. the Timberwolves.
Fast Break
Mo Bamba is another interesting value option on DraftKings. He’s a bit more expensive at $4,300, but he also owns a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s also been fantastic on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Andre Drummond has served as one of the Lakers’ offensive focal points since joining the team. He posted a usage rate of 38.3% in his last game, which allowed him to rack up 36.2 FanDuel points in just 22.4 minutes. He should be a bit more playing time tonight vs. the Knicks, and Drummond has always been capable of racking up fantasy points quickly.
Pictured above: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz
Photo credit: Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images
