The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The PG position is a bit thin at the top for a 10-game slate. That said, De’Aaron Fox deserves some attention vs. the Timberwolves. It’s a solid matchup — the Timberwolves rank seventh in pace and 17th in defensive efficiency — giving Fox an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.57 on DraftKings.
More importantly, Fox has been really good when on the court this season. Injuries have caused him to be out or limited for a solid chunk of the season, but he’s played at least 32.9 minutes in three of his past four games. He’s averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute this year, which makes him one of the most productive players at the position.
Value
Derrick Rose has been ruled out for Monday’s contest vs. the Grizzlies, which makes the Pistons a very appealing target. Rose leads the team in usage this season, so his absence opens up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster. The Grizzlies are also a very strong matchup, ranking fifth in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency.
Reggie Jackson is also listed as questionable on the second leg of a back-to-back, but he’d be a very appealing value option if he’s able to suit up. He played over 34 minutes and started the second half after Rose left with an injury, and he responded with 32.6 FanDuel points. He’s simply too cheap at $4,500.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio sat out yesterday’s game vs. the Bucks, but he’s expected to return to the lineup today. His salary has decreased by a whopping $1,700 over the past month on FanDuel and $1,300 on DraftKings, which makes him an appealing buy-low option vs. the Nets. It’s a fantastic matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.11 on DraftKings.
Jalen Brunson is coming off 42.8 FanDuel points in his last outing, and he’s looking at another increased workload vs. the Pacers. Luka Doncic and Seth Curry have both been ruled out, and Brunson has averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute with both players off the court this season. He has been priced up a bit after his last contest, but he still offers value at $5,700.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has been balling recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +14.23 over that time frame. Overall, he’s increased his fantasy output to 1.45 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark at the position by a comfortable margin.
He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Golden State Warriors. They rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 120.5 ranks first on the slate.
Value
The Pistons have a bunch of appealing value options to choose from at the SG position.
Bruce Brown offers the most upside, evidenced by his 43.0 FanDuel points over nearly 38 minutes in yesterday’s contest. He’s averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s underpriced across the industry.
Langston Galloway is another player who should see a bump with Rose out of the lineup, and he’s priced near the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He hasn’t been as effective as Brown — he’s averaged 0.71 FanDuel points per minute this season — but he should still see enough playing time to be fantasy relevant.
Tony Snell is currently projected for the most minutes out of the trio, but he’s struggled to an average of 0.57 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Still, he’s dirt-cheap at $3,300 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.48 (per the Trends tool).
All three players would see a bump in value if Jackson is unable to suit up, with Brown potentially entering the starting lineup at PG.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving will miss at least the next week for the Nets, which means Spencer Dinwiddie should serve as their offensive focal point. He’s led the team with a usage rate of 33.6% in 28 games without Irving this season, resulting in an average of 40.04 DraftKings points per game.
Devin Booker has been almost as good as Beal recently, and he’s significantly cheaper on FanDuel. He’s priced at $8,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 78%, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.88 vs. the Nets.
Small Forward
Stud
There is no real stud to consider paying up for at SF. Paul George is the only player at the position priced above $6,800 on FanDuel, and he’s been heavily limited in each of his past two games.
That said, the Celtics have a pair of players who could provide stud-like production at a discount. Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart have both been ruled out, and Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward should be asked to carry larger workloads in their absence. Hayward has increased his usage rate by +5.2% with both players off the court this season, while Brown has increased his usage rate by +4.7%. Brown has been slightly better in that situation, averaging 1.09 FanDuel points per minute, but both players are grading out among the best options on the slate.
They’re particularly good values on FanDuel, where each player owns a Bargain Rating of at least 89%.
Value
Tim Hardaway Jr. let down a lot of people in his last game, scoring just 9.7 FanDuel points with Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis out of the lineup. That could result in reduced ownership today, making him an excellent bounce-back target. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.8% with Doncic and Curry off the court this season, and he did post a higher usage rate than normal in his last contest. He struggled to score the ball, shooting just 25.0% from the field and 20.0% from 3-point range, but he could see regression today.
Fast Break
Caris LeVert is an interesting option today for the Nets. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently, and he’s currently projected for just 25.8 minutes in our NBA Models. That said, LeVert has posted a usage rate of 31.3% in games without Irving this season, resulting in an average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute. At that rate, he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $4,700 salary.
Kelly Oubre is carrying one of the largest workloads at the position currently. He’s logged at least 36.3 minutes in three of his past four games, and no one at the position is projected for more than his 37.1 minutes on today’s slate. Oubre can also make the most of his playing time given his average of 1.02 FanDuel points per minute.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis is expected to be a full go after sitting out his last game, and he’s way underpriced at $7,000 on DraftKings. He’s coming off 56.0 DraftKings points in his last contest, which continues a string of dominant performances with Doncic out of the lineup. Overall, Porzingis has averaged 50.15 DraftKings points in five games without Doncic this season. The result is an average Plus/Minus of +19.8 despite an average salary of $7,850. He’s very difficult to fade at his current price tag.
Value
Sekou Doumbouya is another potential value option for the Pistons. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel, yet he’s projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Unsurprisingly, min-priced players with comparable minute projections have historically crushed, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.43 on DraftKings and +3.62 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum should also carry an increased workload today for the Celtics. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +7.5% with Walker and Smart off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute. He attempted 19 shots in his last game despite playing just 28.6 minutes, so he has a big ceiling if he sees more playing time today.
LaMarcus Aldridge owns 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is tied for the most at the position. He’s seen a massive $1,600 price decrease over the past month, and Aldridge has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.77 with a comparable salary this season. He’s also in a solid spot vs. the Clippers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.30.
Center
Stud
Deandre Ayton has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.48 on DraftKings. He’s also been carrying a massive workload recently, logging at least 36 minutes in three of his past five games. He’s eclipsed 39 minutes in two of those contests, so he has the potential to play a ton if today’s game stays competitive.
He’s underpriced across the industry, but his $7,700 salary on DraftKings is particularly appealing.
Value
It seems like a day where you want to pay up at center. There are a lot of high-priced options in great spots, and there are very few values popping in our models.
That said, John Henson might be worth some consideration at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s not expected to see a ton of playing time — he’s currently projected for just 17.8 minutes — but he has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond was limited to just 30.2 minutes after fouling out yesterday vs. the Nuggets, but that didn’t stop him from scoring 51.4 FanDuel points. He’s in a solid spot vs. the Grizzlies, and he leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings. He’s also seen a usage bump of +2.7% with Griffin and Rose off the court this season.
Joel Embiid has a brutal matchup today vs. the Heat, but he’s very cheap at just $8,800 on FanDuel. He has big upside at that salary and should command minimal ownership, which makes him an interesting pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Photo credit: Ronald Martinez-Getty Images
Pictured: Mavericks PF Kristaps Porzingis (6)
