NBA DFS Breakdown (Monday, 12/30): Injuries Creating Tons of Value

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert for today’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves, which means Spencer Dinwiddie should once again serve as their offensive focal point. He’s thrived in that role recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.52 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, yet his salary has actually decreased by $400 over that time frame.

The Timberwolves represent an excellent matchup as well. They rank eighth in pace and are below-average in defensive efficiency, and the Nets are four-point favorites despite playing on the road. Dinwiddie leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Value

The Heat are in the best spot of the day vs. the Washington Wizards. They’ve been an absolute dream matchup this season, ranking second in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. The Heat’s implied team total of 118.0 is tied for first on the slate and represents a massive increase compared to their season average (112.6).

They have a couple of appealing options at the PG position. Kendrick Nunn stands out on FanDuel, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. His playing time has come back to reality a bit with the team getting healthier, but he’s still projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season, so that should be enough playing time to make him a viable option.

Goran Dragic is the preferred target on DraftKings at $5,200. He’s been outstanding since returning from injury, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, yet his salary has decreased by $300 over that time frame. That makes him tough to pass up vs. the Wizards given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.39.

Fast Break

The Timberwolves are going to be a very important team to monitor heading into lineup lock. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are both questionable, so the team could potentially be without their two highest-usage players. Make sure to check out the new Labs Insiders tool to get real time updates on their status.

If both players are unable to suit up, Jeff Teague would become one of the strongest options of the day. He’s seen a usage bump of +6.4% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.22 FanDuel points per minute. Even if Towns and Wiggins are active, he should still benefit from an elite matchup vs. the Nets. They’ve been crushed by opposing PGs this season, giving Teague an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.64 on FanDuel.

Markelle Fultz is coming off just 15.75 DraftKings points in his last contest, but there are reasons for optimism today vs. the Hawks. He still played 29.6 minutes in that contest but shot a paltry 1-of-10 from the field. He should see some regression in that department, especially against a Hawks team that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Donovan Mitchell has been brilliant in his last two games, scoring at least 47.1 FanDuel points in both contests. He’s handed out at least seven assists in both games, which is not surprising considering the injury to Mike Conley. He’s increased his assist rate by a team-high +5.7% in games without Conley this season, which gives him increased upside as a distributor in addition to his upside as a scorer.

Mitchell doesn’t have an ideal matchup today vs. the Pistons – they rank just 20th in pace – but he’s simply too cheap at $7,800 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he leads all SGs with 15 Pro Trends. Historically, players with a comparable number of Pro Trends have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.86 (per the Trends tool).

Value

The Magic should offer plenty of value today vs. the Hawks. In addition to it being a great matchup, the team is also dealing with a variety of injuries. Michael Carter-Williams and Aaron Gordon have both been ruled out, which will open up some minutes for the rest of the roster.

Evan Fournier has seen a team-high usage bump of +4.0% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. He’s underpriced at $5,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%.

Terrence Ross is another player who figures to see an increase in playing time, and he’s a strong option at $4,200 on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Ross has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.43 with a comparable salary and minutes projection as a member of the Magic.

Fast Break

C.J. McCollum leads the position with 38 projected minutes on today’s slate, and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s averaged 36.6 DraftKings points per game over that time frame, yet his salary has decreased by $500. His $6,600 price tag is very reasonable for a matchup vs. the Suns.

Gary Payton II is one of the top values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%. It feels like he came out of nowhere, but he’s played at least 30 minutes and scored at least 31.5 FanDuel points in each of his past three games. He’s averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he would become an elite target if Bradley Beal is unable to suit up.

Small Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo has missed each of the past two games for the Bucks, but he’s currently expected to play today vs. the Bulls. This could be a nice opportunity to buy low on him. He’s seen a large price decrease over the past month on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he continues to absolutely dominate when he’s on the floor. No one on today’s slate can come close to his average of 2.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

This matchup vs. the Bulls is also solid. They’re actually pretty good defensively, ranking seventh in defensive efficiency, but Giannis still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.67 on DraftKings. More importantly, the Bucks are favored by only 8.5 points, so there’s a chance that this game stays competitive. The spread has been a massive factor for Giannis this season since the Bucks have opted to give him plenty of rest in blowout situations.

Value

Joe Harris isn’t the sexiest DFS option, but he’s hard to ignore at $4,500 on FanDuel. He’s played a bunch of minutes recently, and he’s currently projected for 32.2 minutes vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. Historically, players with a comparable salary and minutes projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.25.

Fast Break

Kelly Oubre is another player who is simply too cheap on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $6,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s coming off 50.7 FanDuel points in just under 41 minutes in his last contest, and he’s expected to carry another large workload vs. the Blazers.

Jimmy Butler has dual SG/SF eligibility on DraftKings, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. He benefits from the same elite matchup as Dragic and Nunn, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.

Power Forward

Stud

Bam Adebayo has seen a massive price increase recently on FanDuel, but it’s hard to knock him vs. the Wizards. As good as that matchup is for guards, it’s arguably even better for big men. They rank dead last in team rebound rate in addition to struggling defensively and playing at a breakneck pace. That’s a juicy combination.

Adebayo has played at least 36 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s played at least 38.1 minutes in two of them. He’s averaged 1.18 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he could easily eclipse that mark vs. the Wizards.

Adebayo has only center eligibility on DraftKings, but he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends and a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s still a very strong option on FanDuel, but he’s elite on DraftKings.

Value

Christian Wood will likely be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. It’s easy to see why. Blake Griffin and Markieff Morris are both expected to miss today’s contest, which opens up plenty of playing time for Wood at PF. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged a ridiculous 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at just $3,800 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel, and he could easily provide 8x value at those price tags.

Fast Break

Carmelo Anthony has seen a price decrease of $1,000 over the past month on DraftKings, which makes him one of the better values at the position at just $5,300. He’s been productive when on the court, averaging 0.94 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s expected to play around 35 minutes vs. the Suns.

Robert Covington is underpriced at $5,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. He always has appeal on FanDuel given his ability to rack up blocks and steals, and he would see a bump in value if Wiggins or Towns is unable to suit up.

Center

Stud

Hassan Whiteside comes at a slight discount compared to the highest-priced centers on the slate, but he has the potential to provide just as much fantasy scoring. He’s averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is one of the top marks at the position. He’s played a decent amount of minutes recently as well, logging at least 32 in five of his past six games. Unsurprisingly, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests.

He ranks third at the position with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.

Value

Brook Lopez should see a reduction in value today with Giannis and Eric Bledsoe back in the lineup, but he still stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he has an elite matchup vs. the Bulls. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.16, which is the second-highest mark at the position.

Fast Break

Nikola Vucevic could be a sneaky play today given Orlando’s injury situation. He’s seen one of the biggest bumps in fantasy value with Gordon and Carter-Williams off the court this season, averaging 1.39 FanDuel points per minute. He’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel, which makes him an excellent GPP pivot.

Andre Drummond has a tough matchup vs. the Jazz, but he should see a boost in value today with Griffin out of the lineup. Drummond has averaged 49.86 DraftKings points per game in 14 games without Griffin.

Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports.
Pictured: Pistons PF Christian Wood (35).